Core Insights - CME Group reported $1.54 billion in revenue for Q3 2025, a 3% year-over-year decline, with EPS remaining flat at $2.68 compared to the previous year [1] - The revenue exceeded the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.53 billion by 0.81%, while the EPS surpassed the consensus estimate of $2.63 by 1.9% [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Average daily volume was 25.32 million, slightly below the estimated 26.2 million [4] - Average rates per contract varied across categories, with interest rates at $0.49 (vs. $0.48 estimate), equity indexes at $0.65 (matching estimate), foreign exchange at $0.84 (vs. $0.79 estimate), energy at $1.21 (vs. $1.19 estimate), and agricultural commodities at $1.42 (vs. $1.40 estimate) [4] - Average daily volume for metals was 825 thousand, below the estimated 843.54 thousand [4] - Revenues from clearing and transaction fees were $1.23 billion, below the $1.25 billion estimate, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 5.3% [4] - Revenues from other sources were $107.2 million, slightly below the $110.22 million estimate, with a year-over-year decline of 1.7% [4] - Market data and information services revenues were $202.5 million, exceeding the $195.57 million estimate, with a year-over-year increase of 13.6% [4] Stock Performance - CME shares returned +2.5% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.1% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), indicating potential underperformance relative to the broader market in the near term [3]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts project that CME Group will report quarterly earnings of $2.63 per share, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 1.9%, with revenues expected to reach $1.54 billion, down 3% from the same quarter last year [1]. Earnings Projections - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 1.2% over the past 30 days, indicating a collective reassessment by analysts [2]. - Revisions to earnings projections are crucial for predicting investor behavior and are strongly linked to short-term stock price performance [3]. Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Other' at $110.22 million, indicating a year-over-year increase of 1% [5]. - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees' are expected to be $1.25 billion, reflecting a decline of 3.3% year over year [5]. - The consensus for 'Revenues- Market data and information services' stands at $195.57 million, suggesting a year-over-year increase of 9.8% [5]. - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Interest rates' are projected to reach $417.39 million, down 6.4% from the prior year [6]. - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Foreign exchange' are expected to be $44.84 million, indicating a decline of 13.6% year over year [6]. Average Daily Volume Estimates - The average daily volume (including NYMEX and COMEX) is projected at 26.26 million, down from 28.29 million in the same quarter last year [7]. - 'Average daily volume - Metals (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is estimated at 844.53 thousand, up from 728.00 thousand year over year [7]. - 'Average daily volume - Interest rates (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is forecasted at 13.77 million, compared to 14.88 million in the previous year [8]. - 'Average daily volume - Equity indexes (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to be 6.65 million, down from 7.41 million year over year [8]. - 'Average daily volume - Foreign exchange (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is projected at 936.02 thousand, down from 1.09 million in the same quarter last year [9]. - 'Average daily volume - Energy (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to reach 2.36 million, down from 2.57 million year over year [9]. - 'Average daily volume - Agricultural commodities (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is projected at 1.70 million, compared to 1.61 million in the same quarter last year [10]. Market Performance - CME shares have changed by +0.7% in the past month, matching the +0.7% movement of the Zacks S&P 500 composite [11]. - With a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell), CME is expected to underperform the overall market in the near future [11].

Core Insights - CME Group Inc. shares have increased by 23.1% over the past year, outperforming the industry growth of 5.8%, the Finance sector's return of 17.2%, and the S&P 500 composite's appreciation of 17.6% [1] - CME Group's market capitalization stands at $96.84 billion, with an average trading volume of 2 million shares over the last three months [1] - The company has a strong track record of beating earnings estimates, achieving this in three of the last four quarters with an average beat of 1.62% [1] Valuation - CME Group shares are currently trading at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.44X, which is lower than the industry average of 24.19X, indicating that the shares are undervalued [2] - Other companies in the sector, such as Intercontinental Exchange Inc. and Nasdaq, are also trading at discounts to the industry average, while Cboe Global Markets is trading at a higher multiple [3] Technical Analysis - CME shares closed at $268.73, trading above the 200-day simple moving average of $261.41, suggesting solid upward momentum [4] Revenue Drivers - CME's primary revenue source comes from clearing and transaction fees, which are bolstered by market volatility [7] - The growth in electronic trading and increased interest in cryptocurrencies are also contributing to revenue growth [7] Growth Projections - The Zacks Consensus Estimate projects an 8.7% year-over-year increase in earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, with revenues expected to reach $6.53 billion, reflecting a 6.5% year-over-year improvement [9] - For 2026, EPS and revenue estimates indicate increases of 3.6% and 4.7%, respectively, compared to 2025 estimates [9] Analyst Sentiment - Two out of eleven analysts have raised their earnings estimates for 2025 and 2026 in the past 60 days, leading to a 0.2% upward revision in the Zacks Consensus Estimate for both years [10] Price Target - The average price target from 18 analysts is $286.17 per share, indicating a potential upside of 8.2% from the last closing price [11] Market Position - CME Group benefits from strong organic growth, particularly during periods of heightened market volatility, which increases trading activity and revenue from fees [13] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on a more crypto-friendly regulatory environment, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects [14] Financial Performance - CME has demonstrated strong financial performance, with free cash flow conversion exceeding 85% in recent quarters, indicating solid earnings quality [15] - The company maintains a robust capital base that supports growth initiatives, including expanding its market data business and product offerings [15] Dividend Policy - CME Group has a strong dividend history, paying five dividends per year, with the fifth being variable based on excess cash flow, making it attractive for yield-seeking investors [16] Investment Outlook - Given its solid growth projections, attractive valuation, and positive analyst sentiment, CME Group is considered a compelling investment opportunity [17]

Core Insights - CME Group is expected to report quarterly earnings of $2.90 per share, reflecting a 13.3% increase year-over-year, with revenues projected at $1.68 billion, a 9.4% increase from the previous year [1] Revenue Estimates - Analysts estimate 'Revenues- Other' to be $105.21 million, indicating a year-over-year decrease of 2.2% [4] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees' are expected to reach $1.37 billion, showing a year-over-year increase of 9.5% [4] - 'Revenues- Market data and information services' are projected at $195.23 million, representing an 11.6% increase from the prior year [4] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Interest rates' are forecasted at $451.83 million, a 15% increase year-over-year [5] - 'Revenues- Clearing and transaction fees- Foreign exchange' is expected to be $51.33 million, reflecting a 0.5% increase from the previous year [5] Volume Estimates - The consensus for 'Average daily volume (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is 29.65 million, up from 25.94 million year-over-year [6] - 'Average daily volume - Metals (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is projected at 901.03 thousand, compared to 868.00 thousand in the same quarter last year [6] - 'Average daily volume - Interest rates (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to reach 15.15 million, up from 12.89 million year-over-year [7] - 'Average daily volume - Equity indexes (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is estimated at 7.62 million, compared to 6.78 million in the previous year [7] - 'Average daily volume - Foreign exchange (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is projected to remain at 1.08 million, unchanged from the previous year [8] - 'Average daily volume - Energy (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is expected to be 2.95 million, up from 2.45 million year-over-year [8] - 'Average daily volume - Agricultural commodities (including NYMEX and COMEX)' is forecasted at 1.95 million, compared to 1.88 million in the same quarter last year [9] Stock Performance - Over the past month, CME shares have returned +2.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a +5.4% change, indicating that CME is likely to perform in line with the overall market [10]