Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - The domestic commodity futures market experienced significant volatility this week, with multiple major products showing sharp fluctuations, driven by supply-demand expectations and geopolitical tensions [1] - Precious metals, particularly gold and silver, faced substantial corrections, while agricultural products like soybean meal and soybean oil continued to show weakness [1] - Coking coal strengthened due to expectations of production cuts in Indonesia, while lithium carbonate continued its downward trend under pressure from inventory changes and the end of pre-holiday stocking [1] Group 2: Precious Metals - The precious metals market was the most volatile sector this week, with gold futures dropping over 4% and silver plummeting more than 27%, marking the largest weekly decline of the year [2] - This correction was primarily due to a rapid retreat of risk aversion, as previous premiums driven by Middle Eastern tensions and global central bank gold purchases quickly dissipated following signs of easing in US-Iran relations [2] - Investors rushed to close their risk-hedging positions, pushing prices downward, while a strengthening US dollar further pressured dollar-denominated precious metals [2] Group 3: Aluminum Market - Aluminum prices fell as geopolitical risks eased, with Shanghai aluminum futures coming under downward pressure as concerns over regional supply diminished [3] - The Middle East accounts for nearly 10% of global electrolytic aluminum capacity, but the actual supply disruption risk is lower than market expectations due to differences in production structures and logistics [3] - As tensions cooled, the "risk premium" in aluminum prices was gradually erased, although domestic alumina maintenance led to short-term supply tightening [3] Group 4: Agricultural Products - The agricultural sector remained weak, with soybean meal and soybean oil experiencing significant declines, primarily due to reinforced expectations of a bumper soybean harvest in South America [4] - The USDA's January report raised Brazil's soybean production forecast to 178 million tons, a record high, with some institutions estimating it could reach 182 million tons [4] - As of January 31, Brazil's soybean harvest progress was at 11.4%, significantly ahead of last year's pace, leading to increased concerns about the influx of new season soybeans [4] Group 5: Lithium Market - Lithium carbonate futures continued their downward trend, with market logic returning to fundamentals [5] - Weekly data showed a decrease in social inventory by 1,414 tons, but a clear structural divergence was evident, with downstream inventory increasing by 3,007 tons while upstream decreased by 831 tons [5] - The market reflected that terminal demand had not effectively recovered, and with pre-holiday stocking largely completed, the market's pricing for first-quarter destocking expectations was nearly finalized [5]

欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 行情走势 01 2月4日 ， 焦煤期货主力合约震荡走强，盘中一度涨超5%，截止收盘，焦煤主力合约收涨3.60%，收报1209元/吨。 消息面上，据多家行业媒体报道， 印尼矿业官员周二表示，由于印尼政府提出大幅减产计划，该国矿商已暂停现货煤炭出口。印尼上月 向主要矿商下达的产量配额比2025年水平降低40%至70%，作为该国提振煤价计划的一部分。 针对印尼RKAB煤炭生产额度审批的最新情况调研，近期印尼煤炭RKAB（印度尼西亚政府对矿产和煤炭开采业务活动实施的工作计划与 预算报告制度，由能源与矿产资源部（ESDM）负责管理，矿业公司必须编制并提交该文件以获得生产批准，从2026年开始审批周期由3 年恢复至1年）审批引发讨论，由于煤矿提交的生产计划与政府批示的结果差距较大，引发市场对印尼煤炭供给减量的担忧。 据首次批示结果来看：其中7家煤矿审批额度与提交额度一致，约2.22亿吨，31家煤矿审批额度减量，提交计划总量为2.55亿吨，实际审 批1.19亿吨，下降53.3%，另4家正在审批中；以上已审批煤炭生产额度为3.41亿吨。部分矿商为此暂停煤炭出 ...

黑色系期货夜盘价格持续走低，焦煤、焦炭主力合约跌近2%，铁矿石跌近1%。 ...