Core Viewpoint - Iraq's future crude oil production targets hinge on the successful implementation of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) by TotalEnergies, which aims to optimize oil reservoir pressure and enhance production longevity [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The CSSP will initially supply approximately six million barrels per day (bpd) of treated seawater to oil production facilities in southern Iraq, with plans for further expansion [2]. - TotalEnergies' four-part project, valued at US$27 billion, is reported to be 80% to 95% complete, with significant progress in various components, including the rehabilitation of the Central Processing Facility and the Artawi-PS1 export pipeline [3]. - The project aims to address Iraq's water injection needs, which are estimated to be around 2% of the combined average flows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Challenges - The CSSP faced delays for over a decade due to competition between ExxonMobil and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for control, with ExxonMobil eventually withdrawing due to transparency concerns [3]. - Iraq has been ranked among the worst countries for corruption, which has hindered effective project execution and governance [3]. Group 3: Production Potential - The Integrated National Energy Strategy (INES) outlined potential oil production scenarios for Iraq, with the best-case scenario projecting a capacity increase to 13 million bpd by 2023, while current production stands at 4-4.2 million bpd [4]. - The gas component of TotalEnergies' project is crucial for reducing Iraq's dependence on Iranian gas imports, which has historically provided Iran with leverage over Iraq [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If TotalEnergies maintains its current trajectory, the US$27 billion project could be completed by the target year of 2028, despite potential political interference from Iraqi entities [7]. - The project includes plans to capture and refine associated natural gas, which could significantly reduce gas imports from Iran and support the revival of the Nebras petrochemicals project, potentially generating up to US$100 billion in profits for Iraq [6].

Geopolitical Importance - The gas capture project is crucial for reducing Iraq's reliance on Iranian gas imports, which has historically influenced Iraq's political and military alliances in the region [1][2] - The alliance between Iran and Iraq has facilitated Iran's ability to export oil despite sanctions and has supported pro-Shia militia groups [1] TotalEnergies Mega-Project - TotalEnergies' $27 billion mega-project aims to address Iraq's long-standing issues of gas capture and oil well pressure stabilization, which have been hindered by bureaucracy and corruption [2][5] - The project includes four main components: gas capture, the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP), redevelopment of the Ratawi oil field, and a 1.25 gigawatt solar complex [2] Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) - The CSSP is designed to supply approximately 6 million barrels per day of seawater to key oil fields, which is essential for maintaining reservoir pressure and enhancing oil production [3][4] - The first phase of the CSSP will be located near Um Qasr and aims to process and transport 5 million barrels of seawater daily, freeing up freshwater for agricultural use [3][4] Future Oil Production Potential - Iraq has the potential to significantly increase its oil production, with historical projections suggesting a rise from over 3 million barrels per day to a plateau of 13 million barrels per day by 2017 under optimal conditions [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that Iraq's ultimately recoverable resources, including the Kurdistan region, could be around 246 billion barrels [5]