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NuScale Power vs. Oklo: Which Small Modular Reactor Stock Has an Edge?
ZACKS· 2025-12-19 14:51
Core Insights - NuScale Power and Oklo are significant players in the nuclear energy sector, with NuScale focusing on small modular reactors and Oklo on next-generation fission powerhouses and compact fast reactors [1][2] Market Overview - The global small modular reactor market was valued at $5.81 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $8.37 billion by 2032, with a CAGR of approximately 4.98% from 2025 to 2032 [2] NuScale Power Analysis - NuScale Power holds a unique position as the only small modular reactor vendor with U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) design approval, enhancing its competitive edge [4] - The company has received approval for a 77-MW uprate, which is crucial for customers seeking reliable power [4] - A significant development is the 6-GW plan with ENTRA1 and Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), representing the largest small modular reactor program in the U.S. with 72 modules across up to six plants [5] - The U.S.-Japan framework agreement provides strong government support, with potential funding of up to $25 billion for baseload energy projects [6] - NuScale is advancing the RoPower project in Romania, which is nearing completion and generating steady revenues [7] - Despite these positives, NuScale's revenues remain low at $8.2 million for Q3 2025, and it faces substantial milestone payments and non-binding agreements that could delay cash flow [8][9] Oklo Analysis - Oklo is expanding its small modular reactor market presence with a scalable model, starting with the Aurora reactor at Idaho National Laboratory [10][11] - The company is utilizing the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) authorization pathway to expedite reactor construction and operation [12] - Oklo is advancing multiple reactor programs, including the Pluto test reactor and supporting Atomic Alchemy's reactor for isotope production, enhancing its technology and operational experience [13] - The company is investing in fuel fabrication and recycling facilities to support its reactors and reduce reliance on external suppliers [14] - Oklo has a customer pipeline of approximately 14 gigawatts, primarily driven by data center demand for reliable power [15] Financial Performance Comparison - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NuScale Power's 2025 bottom line is a loss of $1.64 per share, widening from a previous estimate of a loss of $0.46 [16] - In contrast, Oklo's 2025 bottom line estimate is a loss of $0.61 per share, which has also widened slightly [18] - Over the past six months, NuScale Power shares have decreased by 59.7%, while Oklo shares have increased by 24.7% [19] - NuScale Power's trailing 12-month Price/Book ratio is 10.8X, compared to Oklo's 9.3X, indicating that Oklo may be more attractive for value-seeking investors [20] Conclusion - Both companies are positioned to benefit from the nuclear energy boom, but NuScale Power's long project timelines and small revenues present challenges [23] - Oklo's scalable model, multiple reactor programs, and reasonable valuation make it a more compelling investment option at this time [25]