Core Insights - Warren Buffett's history with Costco stock is not flawless despite the company's long-term success, which has seen a rise of over 14,000% since 1985 [1] - Charlie Munger, Buffett's late partner, had a more favorable relationship with Costco, being a board member and holding it in his personal portfolio [2] - Buffett acknowledged selling Costco stock in June 2020 as a mistake, especially as the stock has since gained over 200% [5] Group 1: Business Model and Performance - Costco's primary business model revolves around selling memberships, which are highly profitable compared to its low-margin merchandise sales [7] - The company enjoys a stable revenue stream from membership fees, leading to predictable financial performance [8] - Operating income increased from $5.4 billion in fiscal 2020 to $9.3 billion in fiscal 2024, reflecting a 71% growth over four years, or an annualized growth rate of 14% [11] Group 2: Current Investment Considerations - Costco's operating income growth has slowed to 12% in the first half of fiscal 2025, indicating potential challenges ahead [12] - The stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has risen from around 35 to approximately 57, suggesting elevated valuations compared to its historical performance [12] - Despite its strong business model, the combination of slowing growth and high valuations raises questions about the attractiveness of investing in Costco stock at present [13]

Core Viewpoint - The Nasdaq has experienced significant growth over the past two years, driven by optimism regarding lower interest rates benefiting high-growth companies, particularly in artificial intelligence and quantum computing [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Recently, the Nasdaq index has faced a correction, dropping more than 10% from its peak due to economic concerns, particularly related to tariffs imposed by President Trump on imports from China, Canada, and Mexico [2] - Although the Nasdaq has moved out of correction territory, many top stocks remain undervalued, presenting buying opportunities for investors [2] Group 2: Company Analysis - Intuitive Surgical - Intuitive Surgical is a leader in robotic surgery, with its da Vinci platform generating billions in annual revenue and maintaining a strong competitive advantage due to widespread surgeon training on the platform [4] - The company generates significant revenue not only from selling or leasing robotic platforms but also from recurring sales of disposable surgical instruments and accessories [5] - In the latest quarter, Intuitive Surgical reported double-digit increases in revenue, installed systems, and procedure volume, indicating strong growth [6] - Despite a recent drop of over 9% in share price, Intuitive Surgical's stock is trading at 64 times forward earnings estimates, down from over 75 earlier this year, reflecting its market dominance and competitive moat [7] Group 3: Company Analysis - Costco - Costco generates most of its profits from membership sales, which are high-margin and have renewal rates consistently above 90%, providing visibility on future earnings [8] - The company offers two membership tiers, with the higher-priced executive membership increasing by over 9% in the most recent quarter, now representing 47% of all memberships and over 70% of global sales [9] - Costco has demonstrated consistent earnings growth and improved return on invested capital, indicating effective investment decisions [10] - While tariffs may exert some pressure on Costco, the impact is expected to be limited, as only about one-third of its U.S. sales come from imports, with less than half from the affected countries [11] - Following an 8% loss last week, Costco's stock is trading at 53 times forward earnings estimates, down from nearly 60 times, making it a valuable long-term investment despite not being the cheapest option [12]