Key Takeaways from July Trade Report Industry Overview - The report focuses on the trade dynamics of China, particularly in July 2025, highlighting both exports and imports trends within the Asia Pacific region [1] Core Insights - **Export Trends**: - Exports to the US and ASEAN showed moderation, with labor-intensive products experiencing a noticeable slowdown due to tariff impacts and diminishing transshipment activities [2] - In contrast, exports to Taiwan and Korea saw a rebound, likely driven by technology-specific factors [2] - Certain sectors, such as fertilizers and medicinal materials, outperformed, especially in Africa where exports surged by 42% year-on-year in July compared to 21% in the first half of the year [2] - **Import Dynamics**: - The headline value of imports rose by 2.9% month-on-month, with record-high imports from Hong Kong contributing 1.0 percentage point to this growth [3] - Imports from Korea and Taiwan improved sequentially, reflecting corresponding export trends and technology-specific factors [3] - Commodity imports were mixed; while iron ore and coal showed subdued demand, crude oil and copper imports performed better [3] - **Future Outlook**: - A slowdown in exports is anticipated in the second half of the year due to tariffs, payback of front-loading, and softer demand from the US [4] - Trade growth is expected to soften in August due to a higher base effect, with July's data reflecting several readings significantly above trend [4] Additional Important Details - **Trade Balance**: - The trade balance for July was reported at $98 billion, down from $115 billion in June [6] - Total exports for July were $322 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2% [6] - Imports totaled $224 billion, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [6] - **Sector-Specific Performance**: - Year-on-year performance varied significantly by destination, with exports to the US declining by 21.7%, while exports to the EU and ASEAN grew by 9.2% and 16.6%, respectively [6] - By product, mechanical and electrical products saw a modest increase of 2.7%, while steel products experienced a decline of 8.4% [6] - **Market Influences**: - The year-on-year growth in both exports and imports was supported by a low base effect, with sequential growth holding up for exports but improving for imports [9] - The report indicates that while tariff impacts are becoming more evident, certain products and destinations have led to better-than-expected headline figures [9] This comprehensive analysis provides insights into the current state of China's trade environment, highlighting both opportunities and challenges in the context of global economic conditions.

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Exports to the US have shown a significant contribution to year-on-year growth, with a +2.6 percentage point increase, while exports to the rest of the world (RoW) decreased by -1.6 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in export markets [2] - Imports have turned positive year-on-year for the first time this year, primarily due to higher commodity prices and a low base effect, although month-on-month growth remains soft at -0.6% seasonally adjusted [3] - A slowdown in global trade is anticipated in the second half of the year, with estimates suggesting that payback from front-loading could reduce year-on-year growth by 2 percentage points compared to the first half [4] Summary by Sections Trade Balance and Exports - The trade balance for June 2025 was reported at 115 billion USD, with exports totaling 325 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [6] - Exports to the US decreased by -16.1% year-on-year, while exports to Japan and the EU increased by 6.6% and 7.6% respectively [6] Imports - Total imports in June 2025 were 210 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [6] - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, while steel products and crude petroleum oil experienced declines of -13.1% and -14.3% respectively [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's exports in the second half of the year, which may impact aggregate demand and inflation [10] - The stabilization of rare earth exports is noted, following a rapid deceleration earlier in the year [10]