August 7, 2025 06:15 AM GMT China Economics | Asia Pacific July Trade: Strong Headline, Nuanced Details Key Takeaways Export mix diverged in July: Exports to the US and ASEAN moderated, while exports of labor-intensive products slowed visibly, echoing the tariff impact and fading transhipment. In contrast, exports to Taiwan and Korea rebounded, likely reflecting tech-specific factors. Meanwhile, certain sectors (such as fertilizers and medicinal materials) and destinations (most notably Africa: 42%Y in July ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Exports to the US have shown a significant contribution to year-on-year growth, with a +2.6 percentage point increase, while exports to the rest of the world (RoW) decreased by -1.6 percentage points, indicating a mixed performance in export markets [2] - Imports have turned positive year-on-year for the first time this year, primarily due to higher commodity prices and a low base effect, although month-on-month growth remains soft at -0.6% seasonally adjusted [3] - A slowdown in global trade is anticipated in the second half of the year, with estimates suggesting that payback from front-loading could reduce year-on-year growth by 2 percentage points compared to the first half [4] Summary by Sections Trade Balance and Exports - The trade balance for June 2025 was reported at 115 billion USD, with exports totaling 325 billion USD, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.8% [6] - Exports to the US decreased by -16.1% year-on-year, while exports to Japan and the EU increased by 6.6% and 7.6% respectively [6] Imports - Total imports in June 2025 were 210 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth of 1.0% [6] - Mechanical and electrical products saw a year-on-year growth of 6.0%, while steel products and crude petroleum oil experienced declines of -13.1% and -14.3% respectively [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a slowdown in China's exports in the second half of the year, which may impact aggregate demand and inflation [10] - The stabilization of rare earth exports is noted, following a rapid deceleration earlier in the year [10]