Key Takeaways Royal Caribbean surged 38.4% in three months, outpacing both its industry and the S&P 500.New ships, private destinations, and digital upgrades aim to boost growth and margins.Royal Caribbean faces rising costs, fuel expenses, and macro risks.Shares of Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (RCL) have rallied 38.4% in the past three months compared with the Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry’s 15.2% rise. Over the same timeframe, the stock has outperformed the S&P 500’s growth of 9.9%.Royal ...

Industry Overview - Travel stocks have faced challenges at the start of 2025, but cruise stocks are showing positive momentum with a 6.4% year-over-year increase in cruise spending in March, compared to a 4.5% increase in February [1] - Overall travel spending saw a decline of 3.5%, while cruise spending surged by 15.6% from the previous month [1] - The Zacks Leisure and Recreation Services industry group ranks in the top 38% of approximately 250 Zacks Ranked Industries, indicating potential outperformance in the next 3 to 6 months [2] Royal Caribbean - Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL) has reached all-time high stock prices and operates three global brands: Royal Caribbean International, Celebrity Cruises, and Azamara Club Cruises [4] - RCL reported adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $2.71 for the first quarter, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2.53 by 7.1%, with revenues increasing 7.3% year-over-year to $4 billion [7] - The company has raised its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to a range of $14.55-$15.55, up from $14.35-$14.65 [9] - Analysts have increased their full-year earnings estimates for RCL by 3.98% in the past 60 days, projecting a 30.7% year-over-year increase in EPS for 2025 [10] Carnival - Carnival Corporation (CCL) operates a fleet of over 90 ships and is experiencing a positive trend in onboard revenues, which grew approximately 10% year-over-year in the first quarter of fiscal 2025 [12] - CCL's bottom line is projected to increase by 30.3% in fiscal 2025 to $1.85 per share, with revenues expected to rise by 4.1% to $26.1 billion [14] - CCL has exceeded earnings estimates in each of the past four quarters, with a trailing four-quarter average earnings surprise of 458.4% [14]

Market Overview - Concerns over tariffs are negatively impacting American stock markets, with the S&P 500 down 2% in 2025, indicating a potential first quarterly loss since June 2023 [1] - Consumer cyclical stocks, including retail and entertainment companies, are particularly affected as investors move funds away during economic volatility [2] DICK'S Sporting Goods - DICK'S Sporting Goods has a current stock price of $202.09, with a 12-month price forecast of $245.50, indicating a 21.48% upside based on 21 analyst ratings [4] - The company has recently experienced a 2% increase in transactions, resulting in a P/E ratio of 14.87, which is considered attractive [5] - DICK'S has a dividend yield of 2.33% and a history of increasing payments over the past 11 years, making it appealing for dividend investors [6] PDD (Pinduoduo) - PDD offers exposure to the Chinese e-commerce market, with a current stock price of $120.45 and a 12-month price forecast of $169.91, representing a 41.06% upside based on 14 analyst ratings [8] - The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 12.23, indicating potential for growth despite broader market pressures [8][9] - Analysts have rated PDD as a Moderate Buy, with a significant 35.66% potential upside and decreasing short interest rates suggesting rising investor confidence [9] Norwegian Cruise Line - Norwegian Cruise Line has a current stock price of $19.17, with a 12-month price forecast of $28.47, indicating a 48.56% upside based on 18 analyst ratings [10] - The company is facing challenges due to tariff negativity but is expected to recover as the cruise season approaches [11] - Norwegian's P/E ratio is currently at 18.77, which is competitive compared to its peers [12] GAP - GAP has a current stock price of $20.40, with a 12-month price forecast of $29.25, indicating a 43.42% upside based on 12 analyst ratings [14] - The company has a low P/E ratio of 10.0, which may present a buying opportunity despite facing pressure from e-commerce competitors [15] - GAP also offers a dividend yield of 3.06%, making it attractive for dividend-seeking investors [15]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a net income exceeding guidance by more than $170 million, driven by strong demand and a 7.3% yield increase, surpassing last year's 17% yield improvement [6][20] - EBITDA reached $1.2 billion, marking a nearly 40% year-over-year increase, with operating income nearly doubling [7][19] - Operating and EBITDA margins improved over 400 basis points year-over-year, now surpassing 2019 levels [7][9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Both ticket and onboard spending outperformed expectations, indicating strong consumer demand [6][20] - Customer deposits increased by over $300 million compared to the prior year, reflecting improved ticket prices and pre-cruise onboard sales [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing historical high prices across all core programs for 2025, with booking volumes for 2026 sailings also reaching an all-time high [10] - European brands continue to outperform year-over-year on both price and occupancy [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on enhancing its marketing campaigns to drive broader consideration for cruise travel and maintain momentum [10][12] - Strategic investments include the expansion and renovation of Denali Lodge and the Aida Evolution program, aimed at enhancing guest experiences and operational efficiency [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged heightened macroeconomic and geopolitical volatility but expressed confidence in achieving strong results due to robust demand and effective execution [9][15] - The company is well-positioned for future growth, with a focus on maintaining investment-grade leverage metrics and reducing debt [17][18] Other Important Information - The company has successfully refinanced $5.5 billion of debt, resulting in significant interest expense savings [25][26] - The sale of Seabourn Sojourn was executed in the best interest of shareholders, consolidating the fleet while maintaining a strong luxury offering [15][106] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide more color on consumer demand trends since Q4? - Management noted that Wave season was a success, with record bookings and strong pricing, indicating robust consumer demand [30] Question: Is there potential upside to the yield guidance for the rest of the year? - Management confirmed that strong Q1 performance and ongoing onboard spending trends suggest potential for upside in yield guidance [42][44] Question: Are there any material differences in bookings for 2026 by brand? - Management indicated no significant concerns across brands, with a strong foundation for 2026 bookings [51] Question: What cost levers are available if demand weakens? - Management highlighted the absence of hedging on commodities as a natural hedge, allowing flexibility in cost management [87] Question: How is the company approaching capital allocation beyond debt paydown? - Management stated that immediate debt paydown is the priority, but future considerations will include investments in growth opportunities [117]

Carnival (CCL) Q1 2025 Earnings Call March 21, 2025 10:00 AM ET Company Participants Beth Roberts - Senior Vice President and Investor RelationsJosh Weinstein - President, CEO, Chief Climate Officer & DirectorDavid Bernstein - CFO & CAORobin Farley - Managing DirectorSteven Wieczynski - Managing DirectorPatrick Scholes - Managing Director - Lodging & Leisure Equity ResearchDavid Katz - Managing DirectorLizzie Dove - Vice President Equity Research Conference Call Participants Benjamin Chaiken - Equity Analys ...