Damai (ticketing platform)
Search documents
大麦娱乐 - 回应投资者关于 IP 发展势头、现场票务和盈利能力的关键争论;2026 财年上半年预览;买入评级
2025-10-20 01:19
Summary of Damai Entertainment Holdings (1060.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Damai Entertainment Holdings (1060.HK) - **Market Cap**: HK$27.6 billion / $3.6 billion - **Enterprise Value**: HK$23.8 billion / $3.1 billion - **Current Price**: HK$0.93 - **12-Month Price Target**: HK$1.30 - **Upside Potential**: 39.8% [1][21] Key Industry Insights IP Business Growth Potential - **IP Segment Growth**: Expected to sustain high growth with a projected GMV doubling for 1HFY26, translating to a 44% CAGR from FY2025-28E [2][24] - **Drivers of Growth**: - Strong momentum from the Sanrio family [24] - Incremental contributions from Chiikawa, with enhanced IP rights [24][26] - Potential collaborations with new IPs [24] - Strengthened monetization of existing IPs [24] - **Market Position**: AliFish is the largest IP sub-licensing agent in China with a market share of over 30% expected in 2025E [2][27] Damai Ticketing Segment - **Revenue Growth**: Expected to slow to +7% YoY in FY26E due to moderated live music ticketing business and increasing competition [3][38] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated return to double-digit growth from FY27E, supported by strong connections with venues and artists [19][38] - **Market Dynamics**: Competition has intensified, with peers offering lower take rates to gain market share [39][40] Financial Performance Revenue and Profitability Forecasts - **Total Revenue**: Projected to reach RMB 7,620.5 million in FY26E, up from RMB 6,702.3 million in FY25 [6][22] - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Expected to be RMB 981.8 million in FY26E, reflecting a growth of 29.8% [6][22] - **Net Profit**: Forecasted at RMB 468 million for 1HFY26, representing a 39% YoY increase [20] Margin Outlook - **EBITDA Margin**: Expected to improve from 11.3% in FY25 to 17.9% in FY28E [18] - **Net Income Margin**: Projected to increase from 5.4% in FY25 to 14.2% in FY28E [18] Investment Considerations - **Valuation**: The stock is currently trading at 21X CY26 PE, with a target price of HK$1.30, indicating a buy recommendation [1][21] - **Risks**: Concerns over profitability and competition in the ticketing segment may impact stock performance [1][21] Additional Insights - **Competitive Moat**: Damai's competitive advantages include strong venue connections, extensive operational experience, and significant user mindshare with a monthly active user base of 45 million [41][49] - **Future Growth Areas**: Non-concert events such as stand-up comedy and sports are expected to contribute to revenue growth [39][51] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Damai Entertainment Holdings, focusing on its growth potential, financial forecasts, and competitive landscape.