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AI板块的机遇与未来增长动能
Jie Mian Xin Wen· 2025-03-26 07:01
Core Viewpoint - The AI sector is experiencing a phase of adjustment since March 2025, with the Sci-Tech AI Index retreating approximately 7% from its peak, but recent trends indicate a recovery with a rise of over 1% on March 26, 2025, and significant trading activity in the leading ETF, Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790) [1][2]. Group 1: Recent Catalysts for AI Market - Market sentiment has been affected by delayed interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, leading to pressure on global tech stock valuations, alongside intensified competition in AI technology [2]. - The AI sector has seen a technical correction after a sustained rise since 2024, which is viewed as a normal market adjustment rather than a shift in the main growth trajectory [2]. - Key events in March 2025 have acted as catalysts for the AI market, including government reports emphasizing AI integration, major product launches from companies like Alibaba and Baidu, and significant conferences highlighting advancements in computing power [2]. Group 2: Core Catalysts - The 2025 government work report has prioritized "full-chain empowerment of artificial intelligence," focusing on three main areas: 1. Upstream computing power infrastructure with plans to add over 50 intelligent computing centers and a 40% year-on-year increase in computing power capacity [3]. 2. Midstream model breakthroughs supporting domestic models in various applications [4]. 3. Downstream application integration with smart terminals [4]. - Accelerated technological iterations are evident, with reduced training costs for large models, enabling a surge in AI applications [4]. - Capital expenditures are expected to exceed 120 billion yuan for Alibaba in 2025, marking a 197% increase year-on-year, primarily directed towards AI and cloud computing [6]. Group 3: Investment Value of Sci-Tech AI ETF - The Sci-Tech AI ETF (588790) closely tracks the Sci-Tech AI Index, focusing on top AI companies in the Sci-Tech sector, covering the entire industry chain from chips to applications [6]. - The index has significantly outperformed the Zhongzheng AI Index, with a return of 77.07% since its inception compared to 43.35% for the Zhongzheng AI Index [7]. - The top ten weighted stocks in the index are concentrated in semiconductor, general equipment, cloud services, and computer equipment sectors [9]. Group 4: Future Outlook for AI Market - Short-term performance will be influenced by earnings reports and event-driven catalysts, with expectations for some key stocks to exceed performance forecasts [10]. - The GTC conference is anticipated to catalyze the computing power supply chain with the release of new GPUs, benefiting domestic alternatives [11]. - Mid-term growth is expected from the proliferation of AI agents and increased user engagement, driving revenue growth in advertising and subscriptions [12]. - Long-term prospects include the rise of domestic models in international rankings and the potential for significant market penetration in computing power [14][15].