24 August 2025 | 3:05PM HKT Topchoice Medical (600763.SS) Earnings Review: 2Q25 revenue/ earnings slightly miss with soft recovery, awaiting policy tailwind into 2H 600763.SS 12m Price Target: Rmb49.00 Price: Rmb46.74 Upside: 4.8% 2Q25 revenue and earnings miss: Revenue of Rmb704mn, +0.2% y/y, 4% below GSe of Rmb733mn, and net profit of Rmb137mn, +0.5% y/y, 2% below GSeRmb140mn. Net margin came in at 19.5% (vs GSe 19.1%). The miss was primarily driven by the slow down in dental implant segment revenue (-4.4 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **China Healthcare** industry, particularly the demographic of the **'silver' population** aged 50 and above with significant spending power, defined as having a net worth greater than **Rmb3 million** [3][16]. Core Insights - The **Total Addressable Market (TAM)** for the 50+ >Rmb3 million NW cohort is projected to grow from **Rmb221 billion (US$31 billion)** in 2024 to **Rmb963 billion (US$135 billion)** by 2035, representing a **CAGR of 14.3%** [3][17]. - In 2024, this cohort will account for **3%** of the overall 50+ population but will contribute **5%** of its healthcare spending, expected to rise to **13%** by 2035 [3][17]. - The healthcare needs of this demographic are anticipated to increasingly align with the **out-of-pocket (OOP)** market, with OOP payment share projected to reach **86%** by 2035, up from **65%** in 2024 [3][20]. Key Stocks and Their Positioning - **Aier Eye Hospital**: Upgraded to **Buy**; expected growth in high-end cataract surgeries and improved average selling prices (ASP) due to new technologies [4][12]. - **Eyebright**: Positive outlook on premiumization trends in intraocular lenses (IOL) post VBP, with increasing uptake for OOP cataract surgeries [4][12]. - **Zhifei**: Upgraded to **Buy**; anticipated rebound in vaccine sales despite below-expectation results in 2024 [4][12]. - **Topchoice**: Neutral rating; improving visibility on growth in dental implants with resilient demand [4][12]. - **Straumann**: Buy rating; expected sustained growth in China, benefiting from the 50+ >Rmb3 million NW cohort [4][12]. Demographic and Economic Insights - The 50+ >Rmb3 million NW cohort is expected to grow from **15 million** in 2024 to **29 million** by 2035, representing **5%** of the total 50+ population [16][17]. - This demographic has a net worth approximately **twice** that of the urban average, with higher annual healthcare expenditures [16][17]. - The average annual healthcare expenditure per capita for this cohort is projected to increase from **Rmb15,000** in 2024 to **Rmb34,000** by 2035 [17][22]. Emerging Trends and Technologies - The report highlights the potential of emerging healthcare technologies such as **brain implants, genome medicines, and robotics** to further drive OOP spending [3][20]. - The shift towards OOP spending is becoming a critical component of the healthcare payment system, especially for high-end pharmaceuticals and medical consumables [18][20]. Conclusion - The healthcare spending landscape in China is poised for significant growth, particularly among the affluent 50+ demographic, driven by increasing demand for high-quality healthcare services and a shift towards OOP expenditures. The identified stocks are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, making them attractive investment opportunities.

Summary of the Conference Call on China Healthcare: Medical Devices Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China Healthcare** sector, specifically the **Medical Devices** industry, and discusses the impact of **Volume-Based Procurement (VBP)** policies on various product categories from 2025 onwards [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments VBP Expansion and Product Coverage - VBP has expanded significantly since its initiation in 2020, now covering a majority of product categories including medical consumables, IVD, insulin, and TCM products [2][11]. - The **6th batch of national VBP** is set to launch in the second half of 2025, which may include high-value consumables and TCM products [2][11]. Policy Maturity and Pricing Impact - The VBP policy has matured, with established rules for initial coverage and renewals, including grouping, ceiling prices, and revival mechanisms [3][14]. - The impact on ex-factory prices for consumables is expected to be largely one-time, focusing on regulating channel markups rather than ongoing price erosion [3][19]. Market Dynamics and Consolidation - Leading domestic players are positioned to consolidate market share post-VBP, benefiting from increased hospital coverage and better alignment with incentives compared to multinational corporations (MNCs) [4][31]. - Smaller players are likely to lose market share due to the competitive pressures from larger domestic firms [4][31]. Stock Implications - Preference is given to companies where the VBP impact is already priced in, with expectations of normalized growth and market share gains, such as **Eyebright**, **SNIBE**, **AK Medical**, and **Weigao** [5]. Earnings Volatility and Inventory Management - Near-term earnings volatility is anticipated for products with high channel inventory, particularly in categories like artificial joints [21]. - Companies like **AK Medical** have issued profit warnings due to inventory destocking and impairment losses [21]. Pricing Trends and Margin Stability - Historical data shows that pricing cuts from VBP have become more moderate over time, with average cuts decreasing from 76% in 2020 to 41% in 2023 for drug-eluting stents [19][30]. - Post-VBP margins for Chinese players have stabilized at 15-20%, comparable to global peers [20][30]. Product Upgrades and Market Share Changes - There is a trend towards product upgrades post-VBP, with higher-end products gaining market share due to increased affordability and reimbursement coverage [32][34]. - MNCs have seen a decline in market share across various product categories, while domestic players have gained significantly [34][36]. Future Considerations - The report highlights the need for clarity on the impact of VBP on large-scale imaging equipment and the upcoming DRG/DIP rules set to roll out in 2025 [46][49]. - Potential savings from VBP are estimated at **Rmb 80 billion** for the insurance fund, contributing to overall healthcare expense reductions [50][53]. Additional Important Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic shifts by MNCs, such as J&J's move to direct sales, which has not yielded expected results [31]. - Companies are advised to monitor the evolving landscape of VBP and its implications for pricing strategies and market positioning [59][64]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the medical devices sector in China, particularly in relation to VBP policies and their implications for market dynamics and company performance.