Summary of Conference Call Notes on Greater China Industrials (Humanoid Robots and Autonomous Driving) Industry Overview - The humanoid robot and autonomous driving (AD) sectors in China are expected to experience rapid expansion over the next decade, with significant growth anticipated in factory settings within 2-3 years and further opportunities in commercial and household applications in the long term [1][1] - The current bill of materials (BOM) cost for a fully-functional humanoid robot is approximately US$50-60k, with expectations for rapid cost reductions in the next five years due to improved product design and economies of scale [1][1] - Stricter regulations in the AD sector are anticipated to create more opportunities for AD components, particularly for LiDAR technology, which will benefit from new long-distance object detection requirements [1][1] Key Players and Developments Dobot - Dobot is a leading global collaborative robot (COBOT) brand, achieving a 47% year-over-year growth in 6-axis COBOT sales in the first half of 2025, indicating market share gains [8][8] - The company has entered the humanoid robot market, launching its first prototype in early 2025 and planning deployment in manufacturing and business scenarios [9][9] RoboSense - RoboSense is focusing on its new EMX LiDAR products, which offer superior precision and detection distance compared to competitors, with expectations to ship 600-700k units in 2025 and 1.5 million units in 2026 [10][10] - The company is also exploring opportunities in the lawn mower, unmanned delivery, and robotaxi industries, with significant partnerships established [11][11] Zhaowei Machinery & Electronics - Zhaowei has launched new dexterous hand models for humanoid robots and aims for a 10-15% global market share in this segment [12][12][13][13] - The BOM cost of the dexterous hand is estimated to account for 20-30% of the total BOM cost of a humanoid robot [13][13] Googol Technology - Googol Technology specializes in high-end control systems for advanced manufacturing and sees strong growth potential in humanoid robots due to its expertise in multi-degree-of-freedom (DoF) controlling [14][15] Minieye - Minieye is making progress with its smart driving solutions, including iPilot and iRobo, and anticipates significant growth in the penetration of front-view camera modules and driver monitoring systems due to new safety regulations [16][17] Leju Robotics - Leju targets to deliver over 1,000 units of robotics in 2025, focusing on stability and durability for large-scale applications [18][18] Orbbec - Orbbec is a leading player in robot vision systems, holding over 70% market share in 3D vision systems for service robots in China [21][21][22][22] UBTECH - UBTECH aims to ship 500 humanoid robots in 2025 and 2,000-3,000 units in 2026, with expectations for BOM cost reductions in the coming years [23][23][24][24] LK Tech - LK Tech is focusing on magnesium alloy technology for humanoid robots, which offers lightweighting and other advantages, and has signed cooperation agreements for R&D projects [25][26][26] Technology Insights - The competition between VLA (Vision-Language-Action) and world model technologies for embodied AI is highlighted, with data availability being a key bottleneck [3][3] - The vision system of humanoid robots is evolving, with depth cameras becoming the mainstream choice for enhancing sensing and navigation capabilities [22][22] Market Outlook - The humanoid robot market is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 3 million units shipped by 2030, leading to substantial opportunities for component suppliers [13][13] - The average selling price (ASP) of humanoid robots is expected to decline to approximately RMB150k (~US$20k) by 2026-2028 due to scale effects [20][20] Conclusion - The humanoid robot and AD sectors in Greater China are poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements, regulatory changes, and increasing market demand. Key players are actively innovating and expanding their product offerings to capture market share in this rapidly evolving landscape.

Summary of the Conference Call on Humanoid Robots Industry Industry Overview - The humanoid robot industry is transitioning from laboratory iterations to commercial applications in vertical scenarios such as inspection, healthcare, logistics, and manufacturing [1][3] - The cost of core components like lead screws has significantly decreased, enabling faster iterations and closer proximity to mass production for companies like Tesla [1][3] Key Insights - Humanoid robots currently operate at approximately 0.3 times the efficiency of humans, with increasing demand from the ToB (business-to-business) sector [4] - The focus for future development will be on upper limb capabilities and brain technology, with dexterous hands being a critical hardware component [1][4] - Major players in the humanoid robot market include Huawei, Xiaomi, and Tesla, while emerging companies have opportunities to challenge these leaders [1][4] Market Projections - Expected shipment volumes for humanoid robots are projected to reach nearly 20,000 units in 2025 and 100,000 units in 2026, indicating a rapid growth phase [1][4] Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities in the second half of the year will focus on specific market segments and technological iterations, particularly in sensors, reducers, and high-density motors [1][5] - The supply chain is expected to see significant developments, with Tesla's supply chain already forming, and new opportunities arising in sensor technology and precision components [5][6] Technological Developments - The rapid iteration cycle of humanoid robots (approximately 2-3 months) allows for quicker technological advancements compared to electric vehicles, which typically have a 12-18 month cycle [7] - Key areas of technological focus include dexterous hands, lead screws, pick and place mechanisms, reducers, electronic skin, and six-dimensional force sensors [9][21] Supply Chain Dynamics - Core value and technological barriers in the supply chain are concentrated in components such as hand joints, lead screws, six-dimensional force sensors, and harmonic reducers [8] - The lead screw market has seen a dramatic price drop, with ball screw prices decreasing from several thousand yuan to under 500 yuan [12] Emerging Technologies - PEEK materials are gaining traction in the industry, with potential price reductions leading to broader applications in robotics [10][15] - The electronic skin technology is still evolving, with various approaches being explored, including resistive and magnetic methods [13][19] - Six-dimensional force sensors face challenges in cost and mass production, with ongoing developments needed in new technology routes [14][20] Conclusion - The humanoid robot industry is poised for significant growth, driven by technological advancements and increasing commercial applications. Investment opportunities are abundant, particularly in supply chain components and emerging technologies. Key players and new entrants alike will play crucial roles in shaping the future landscape of this industry [21]