Economic Outlook - Goldman Sachs released its 2026 Economic and Financial Market Outlook report, indicating strong economic momentum at the start of the year and dismissing widespread recession concerns [1] - The bank acknowledged policy shocks in 2025 that impacted real wages and labor supply but described the slowdown as orderly rather than disruptive [2] - Consumer spending, which constitutes nearly 70% of U.S. GDP, is aligned with long-term growth trends due to rising equity and home prices [2] Inflation and Monetary Policy - Goldman Sachs views last year's challenges as temporary and policy-driven, with inflationary impacts from tariffs considered a one-time price-level shift [3] - Core PCE inflation is projected to decrease from 2.9% at the beginning of the year to approximately 2.3% by year-end, with two Federal Reserve rate cuts anticipated [3] Growth and Investment Trends - The bank favors artificial intelligence (AI) as a key growth area, expecting sustained technology investment to support demand and contribute significantly to GDP without excessive borrowing [4] - Corporate balance sheets are reported to be healthy, with non-financial business debt declining as a share of GDP [4] Recession Probability - Goldman Sachs assigns a 25% probability of a recession in 2026, which is lower than the 33% consensus, indicating strong expected earnings growth despite high index-level valuations [5] Undervalued Stocks - The article discusses 10 undervalued stocks identified by Goldman Sachs, based on their 13-F filings and forward price-to-earnings multiples [7] - The methodology involved filtering stocks with the lowest forward price-to-earnings multiples and ranking them by the number of hedge funds holding stakes [7][8] Company-Specific Insights - **T-Mobile US, Inc. (NASDAQ:TMUS)**: Forward P/E multiple of 15.72x, with 81 hedge fund holders. Bernstein lowered its price target from $265 to $245, citing increased competition in the telecom sector [9][10] - **AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T)**: Forward P/E multiple of 10.63x, with 84 hedge fund holders. Bernstein reduced its price target from $31.00 to $30.00, highlighting heightened competition and challenges in the sector [13][14] - **Adobe Inc. (NASDAQ:ADBE)**: Forward P/E multiple of 12.58x, with 88 hedge fund holders. Investor sentiment is cautiously constructive, with a consensus price target of $417.50, indicating a potential upside of 37.30% [17][18]