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Cash Doubles, Losses Widen: Is BigBear.ai Stock Still Worth the Risk?
ZACKSยท 2025-07-14 16:21
Core Insights - BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) is facing a mixed financial situation in early 2025, with a wider adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million compared to a $1.6 million loss a year ago, primarily due to increased R&D investment and procurement delays related to federal funding cycles [1][9] - The company has significantly improved its balance sheet, with cash and equivalents rising to $108 million from $50 million at the end of 2024, aided by $58 million in debt reduction from note conversions [2][9] - Despite ongoing profitability challenges, BigBear.ai's backlog has grown to $385 million, a 30% increase year-over-year, indicating strong demand for its AI solutions in national security and critical infrastructure [3][9] Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, BigBear.ai reported a $7 million adjusted EBITDA loss, which is wider than the previous year's loss of $1.6 million, attributed to R&D and funding delays [9] - The company's cash position improved significantly, with cash and equivalents reaching $108 million, more than doubling from $50 million at year-end 2024 [2][9] - The backlog increased by 30% to $385 million, reflecting growing demand for its AI solutions [3][9] Competitive Landscape - BigBear.ai's financial struggles are similar to those faced by competitors like Palantir Technologies and C3.ai, both of which are also managing the trade-off between cash reserves and EBITDA losses [4][5] - Palantir has prioritized long-term government contracts over immediate profitability, a strategy that BigBear.ai is beginning to emulate [4] - C3.ai is also experiencing operating losses while investing heavily in AI platform enhancements, similar to BigBear.ai's focus on predictive analytics and mission-focused AI [5] Stock Performance - BBAI shares have surged 101.3% in the past month, outperforming the Zacks Computers - IT Services industry, the Zacks Computer and Technology sector, and the S&P 500 index [7] - The stock is currently trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 10.54, indicating it is at a discount compared to industry peers [14] Earnings Estimates - BBAI's bottom-line estimates for 2025 remain unchanged at a loss of 41 cents per share, with a slight downward trend for 2026 to 21 cents per share, reflecting an improvement from a loss of $1.10 per share a year ago [11]