Core Viewpoint - NOV Inc. is expected to report a decline in both earnings and revenues for the fourth quarter of 2025, with earnings estimated at 25 cents per share and revenues at $2.17 billion, reflecting a year-over-year decrease of 39.02% and 5.89% respectively [1][8]. Group 1: Q3 Performance and Earnings History - In the last reported quarter, NOV missed earnings expectations with adjusted earnings per share of 11 cents, falling short of the consensus estimate of 24 cents, while revenues of $2.2 billion were up 1.9% from the consensus mark [2]. - The company has a mixed earnings surprise history, beating estimates three times in the last four quarters but missing once, with an average negative surprise of 16.09% [2]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Q4 Performance - NOV's revenue from the Energy Products and Services segment is projected to decline by 6.7% to $970 million, influenced by a seasonal slowdown in North American short-cycle oil activity and ongoing market challenges [4][5]. - The company anticipates a 5% to 7% year-over-year decline in consolidated revenues due to softening global drilling activity and tariffs impacting margins [4]. Group 3: Cost Management and Shareholder Returns - Despite short-term challenges, NOV aims to return 50% of excess free cash flow to shareholders in 2025, and a decrease in costs may support its bottom line [6]. - The company expects reductions in costs of goods sold, selling, general and administrative expenses, and depreciation and amortization, which could positively impact earnings [6][8]. Group 4: Earnings ESP and Zacks Rank - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NOV's earnings has remained unchanged over the past 30 days, indicating no revisions, and the Earnings ESP stands at 0.00%, suggesting uncertainty in predicting an earnings beat [3][9]. - NOV currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3, indicating a hold position [9].

Core Insights - NOV Inc. is expected to report third-quarter 2025 results on October 27, with earnings estimated at 24 cents per share and revenues at $2.1 billion [1][9] Financial Performance - In the last reported quarter, NOV missed the consensus earnings estimate, reporting adjusted EPS of 29 cents against an expected 30 cents, while revenues were $2.2 billion, up 1.9% from the consensus [2] - Over the past four quarters, NOV has beaten the Zacks Consensus Estimate once and missed three times, resulting in an average negative surprise of 3.9% [3] Revenue and Expense Outlook - The Zacks Consensus Estimate predicts a 2.4% decline in third-quarter revenues compared to the previous year, with the Energy Products and Services segment expected to generate $983 million, down from $1,003 million [5][9] - Selling, general, and administrative expenses are projected to rise by approximately 12.4% year-over-year, reaching $309 million [5][9] - The cost of goods sold is anticipated to decrease to $1,679.7 million from $1,722 million in the prior year [6] Market Conditions - The company expects a slowdown in global drilling activity in the second half of 2025, with North American shale activity also projected to decline modestly [5] - NOV believes that conventional drilling in Saudi Arabia will not see a resurgence before 2026 [5] Earnings Prediction - The Zacks model does not predict an earnings beat for NOV this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -7.29% [7][8]