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Lumentum Holdings Inc. (LITE) Presents at Barclays 23rd Annual Global Technology Conference Transcript
Seeking Alphaยท 2025-12-10 20:02
Question-and-Answer SessionSo it's been some crazy times of late. You've seen an unprecedented demand in AI kind of come into the market. You guys have talked about certain areas in your portfolio in which things have gotten tight. So maybe start with like a mark-to-market. Where are you seeing tightness? Is this across the portfolio? And then maybe how long do you think that dynamic lasts?Wupen YuenPresident of Global Business Unit Yes. Actually, to be honest, I think the short summary is that we're seeing ...
Lumentum (NasdaqGS:LITE) FY Conference Transcript
2025-12-10 18:17
Summary of Lumentum FY Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Lumentum (NasdaqGS: LITE) - **Date of Conference**: December 10, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Industry**: Optical and Photonic Technologies - **Current Market Dynamics**: - Unprecedented demand in AI and optical technologies - Capacity constraints across all product lines due to high demand exceeding supply [10][12][121] Core Points and Arguments 1. **Capacity Constraints**: - All product lines are currently capacity constrained, with demand exceeding supply [10] - Specific products like indium phosphide lasers and scale-across optics are particularly tight [10][11] - EML lasers are sold out for 2026 and largely booked through 2027, indicating strong demand [13] 2. **Pricing Dynamics**: - Pricing is expected to increase due to the seller's market, with longer-term contracts not offering discounts [18] - Larger customers are willing to commit to longer contracts, which helps secure supply [18] 3. **Customer Supply Allocation**: - Supply allocation is based on customer commitment and strategic importance, ensuring no favoritism among major clients [25] - The company aims to support all cloud customers fairly [25] 4. **Product Capacity Increase**: - A 40% capacity increase for EMLs is on track, with incremental improvements expected over the next quarters [26][30] - Multiple tools are being utilized to address capacity needs, rather than a single bottleneck [32][34] 5. **Market Trends**: - Silicon Photonics (SiPho) is expected to gain market share, but EMLs currently have better gross margins [39] - The transition to 1.6T technology is anticipated, with flexibility in capacity allocation between EML and SiPho lasers [46][50] 6. **Optical Switching (OCS)**: - OCS is projected to grow significantly, with expectations of reaching around $100 million per quarter by December 2026 [70] - OCS is currently supplementing packet switching rather than cannibalizing it, with a growing interest from AI model companies [78] 7. **CPO Technology**: - CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) is expected to see significant adoption by 2027, with projections of 40%-50% of switches being CPO-based by 2028 [91] - The transition to scale-up architectures is anticipated but will require careful planning due to power consumption and capacity considerations [97] 8. **Optical Ports Growth**: - Estimated optical ports for 2026 are projected to be around 60-75 million, nearly doubling year-over-year [104][106] - The majority of these ports will be driven by hyperscalers, indicating strong demand in the data center market [116] 9. **Customer Relationships**: - The company is focusing on serving its three major customers effectively, as demand from these clients is high [120] - Capacity remains the primary constraint in meeting customer demand, with a need to ensure reliable production [121] 10. **Broad-Based Growth in Telco**: - The telco business is experiencing broad-based growth, driven by increased demand across various product lines [141] - The company anticipates continued strong growth in data center optics and related technologies [142] Additional Important Insights - The company is cautious about expanding its customer base due to current capacity constraints, focusing instead on existing relationships [121] - The supply chain for OCS is still developing, which may limit growth in the short term but is not expected to face the same constraints as laser technologies [82] - The overall market for optical technologies is expected to grow rapidly, with significant opportunities for Lumentum in both existing and new applications [142]