Core Insights - U.S. equities experienced a strong performance last week, marking one of the most significant November turnarounds on record despite a shorter trading week [1] - The U.S. dollar struggled to maintain a key psychological level of 100 on the index, primarily due to the Federal Reserve signaling a potential rate cut in December [2] - Macro factors, rather than micro factors, influenced the market mood, with data easing hard-landing fears and supporting the case for easier policy [3] Market Conditions - Liquidity conditions were thin, and a significant technical incident occurred when several key futures and FX venues went offline due to a cooling failure at a CME Group data center [4][5] - The NZD/JPY pair broke out of a five-month range, closing above a key level of 89, indicating bullish momentum [6][8] - The EUR/AUD pair saw the Australian dollar recover due to rising commodity prices, with potential bearish signals if it breaks support around 1.76 [9][10] Upcoming Events - The upcoming week is critical for assessing the December rate cut narrative, with potential catalysts including high-profile U.S. data and political developments [11] - Key domestic focus will be on ISM manufacturing and services data, which could influence the Fed's reaction function [12] - Friday's Non-Farm Payroll report is expected to show a modest rebound, with implications for the rate-cut timeline and market sentiment [13]

Core Viewpoint - The US Dollar Index increased despite a 25-basis-point rate cut, indicating that the cut was anticipated prior to the decision, while Chair Powell's comments shifted the policy outlook to a more data-dependent approach [1] Currency Movements - DXY approached a significant resistance level, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD declining towards recent lows; USD/JPY gained further as the BoJ did not indicate imminent rate hikes [2] - Commodity currencies showed mixed performance, with CAD benefiting from stronger crude prices and a resilient US risk tone, while AUD and NZD lagged due to cautious sentiment in Asia [2] Market Signals - Cross-asset signals supported the dollar's strength, with US equities achieving a third consecutive weekly gain and closing a sixth positive month, driven by strong performances from major companies like Alphabet and Amazon [3] - The trade war climate improved following President Trump's trip to Asia and a truce on rare earths/minerals with President Xi [3] Currency Pairs Analysis - EUR/AUD is forming a broadening megaphone pattern, potentially indicating a long-term top, with a recent lower high and a retest of previous lows; a break below 1.75600 could signal sustained weakness [4][6] - AUD/SGD has rebounded from 0.83420 support and is testing previous resistance at 0.55520; a breakout could lead to a medium-term rally towards 0.87260 [7][9] Economic Indicators and Outlook - The ongoing government shutdown affects near-term economic indicators, with focus on ISM surveys, FED speeches, and ADP data; Powell's comments on a December cut suggest that a strong ISM report could bolster dollar strength and pressure EUR/USD towards October lows [10] - Upcoming economic events include US ISM manufacturing and services, ADP data, CHF CPI, and central bank meetings for RBA and BoE, with traders closely monitoring AUD and GBP for potential volatility [11]