2 November 2025 | 3:49PM HKT Equity Research Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) Downgrade Sanhua A to Neutral on recent outperformance; expectations for humanoid robots are too high, too soon | 002050.SZ | 12m Price Target: Rmb40.90 | Price: Rmb49.93 | Downside: 18.1% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2050.HK | 12m Price Target: HK$43.10 | Price: HK$40.88 | Upside: 5.4% | We downgrade Sanhua A from Buy to Neutral post recent outperformance and maintain Sanhua H at Buy. Sanhua-A/H have rallied +51%/+31% sin ...

Summary of Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sanhua Intelligent Controls (002050.SZ) - **Market Cap**: Rmb210.2 billion / $29.5 billion - **Enterprise Value**: Rmb201.5 billion / $28.3 billion - **Industry**: China Industrial Tech & Machinery Key Points and Arguments 1. **Rating Downgrade**: Sanhua A has been downgraded from Buy to Neutral due to recent stock outperformance, while Sanhua H remains at Buy. The stock prices have increased by +51% for Sanhua A and +31% for Sanhua H since Tesla's Masterplan IV announcement on September 2, 2025, indicating market optimism regarding humanoid robot actuator revenue opportunities [1][16][19]. 2. **Market Expectations**: Current valuations imply that Sanhua A could achieve 0.9 million to 2.0 million units of Tesla Optimus sales, which is deemed unlikely within the next 12 months, especially given Tesla's target of 1 million units by 2030 [1][16][19]. 3. **Earnings Growth Moderation**: Anticipated earnings growth for Sanhua is expected to moderate over the next 2-3 quarters due to a high base effect in both HVAC and EV component segments, compounded by tighter trade-in subsidies [1][20][21]. 4. **3Q25 Financial Performance**: Sanhua reported a strong 3Q25 performance, primarily driven by effective control of SG&A expenses, leading to a revision of 2025-2030 EPS estimates upward by 4-8% [2][25]. 5. **Target Price Adjustments**: The 12-month target prices for Sanhua A and H have been set at Rmb40.90 and HK$43.10, respectively, reflecting an 18% downside for Sanhua A and a 5% upside for Sanhua H [2][25]. 6. **Valuation Multiples**: The target multiple has been increased from a 2030E P/E of 21x to 25x, based on a sum-of-the-parts (SOTP) analysis of core and humanoid robot businesses [2][27]. 7. **Revenue Forecasts**: Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are as follows: - 2025: Rmb32,023.4 million - 2026: Rmb36,563.1 million - 2027: Rmb44,918.0 million This indicates a growth rate of 14.6% in 2025 and 14.2% in 2026 [4][13]. 8. **Segment Performance**: The HVAC component segment is expected to face growth pressure, with revenue growth forecasted to slow to -2% in 4Q25, while the EV thermal management segment is projected to see modest growth of 12% in the same period [20][21][23]. 9. **Market Valuation Context**: Sanhua A/H is currently trading at 47x/37x 12-month forward P/E, which is significantly above the historical average, indicating potential overvaluation [28]. 10. **Future Checkpoints**: The next significant assessment of Sanhua's opportunities will occur in February/March 2026, coinciding with the planned launch of Tesla's Gen 3 product [1][19]. Additional Important Information - **Cash Flow and Financial Health**: Sanhua's free cash flow is projected to improve, with net income expected to rise from Rmb3,099.2 million in 2024 to Rmb6,005.8 million by 2027 [13][25]. - **Dividend Policy**: The dividend payout ratio is expected to remain stable at around 30% [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, highlighting the company's current standing, market expectations, and future outlook.

Summary of Sanhua A/H (002050.SZ/2050.HK) Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Sanhua Intelligent Controls - **Industry**: HVAC (Heating, Ventilation, and Air Conditioning) and thermal management components Key Financial Performance - **2Q25 Results**: - Revenue: Rmb8,593 million (+19% YoY) - Gross Profit: Rmb2,515 million (+25% YoY) - EBIT: Rmb1,459 million (+50% YoY) - Net Income: Rmb1,207 million (+39% YoY) - GPM: 29% (+1pp YoY) - OPM: 17% (+4pp YoY) - NPM: 14% (+1pp YoY) - **1H25 Performance**: - Revenue: Rmb10,389 million (+25% YoY) - GPM: 28.2% (+0.6pp YoY) - NPM: 12.4% (+2.2pp YoY) - **2025 Guidance**: Management raised revenue growth expectations to at least 15% YoY and net profit growth to 20-30% YoY, up from initial guidance of 10-15% YoY for both metrics [1][7][10]. Core Business Drivers - **HVAC Control Components**: - Revenue growth driven by commercial HVAC demand and low-AC penetration regions, with a 25% YoY increase in revenue and a 53% YoY increase in net profit for 1H25 [1][7]. - **AIDC Liquid Cooling**: - Revenue expected to exceed Rmb1 billion in 2024, representing approximately 10% global market share. The company has more exposure to data center room cooling than server cooling, which is beneficial amid expected moderation in China’s EV/HVAC growth [1][7][10]. - **EV Thermal Management**: - Despite Tesla's anticipated 15% YoY decline in 2025E, segment revenue grew 9% YoY, with net profit increasing 22% YoY in 1H25. Diversification from other customers like Xiaomi, Leapmotor, and GM is expected to offset Tesla's decline [1][7][10]. Humanoid Robot Components - Management believes humanoid robots represent a significant long-term AI application. The Thailand factory is set for volume production in 3Q25, with stable market leadership expected despite supply chain uncertainties [6][10]. Margin Improvement Factors - Significant GPM and NPM improvements attributed to economies of scale, effective cost control, and a favorable product mix shift towards higher-margin commercial HVAC components. SG&A as a percentage of revenue decreased to 11.1% in 2Q25 [8][10]. Investment Thesis - Sanhua is rated as a "Buy" due to its growth potential in humanoid robot actuators and solid market leadership in core HVAC business. Expected revenue and net profit CAGR of 19% from 2025-2030E. The company is well-positioned to outperform the residential HVAC industry and benefit from global EV penetration increases [10][11]. Target Price and Valuation - New 12-month target price set at Rmb32.7 and HK$34.4, based on a 2030E P/E of 21x, discounted back to 2026E with a cost of equity of 9.5% [11]. Risks and Upside Potential - Key upside risks include easing pricing competition, abating headwinds in new testing areas, better-than-expected margins, and faster development in low-altitude economies [11].