Summary of the Conference Call on the China Bus Industry Industry Overview - The China bus sector is transitioning from a domestic demand-driven market to an export-driven growth sector, with expectations for bus exports to double by 2026 compared to 2023 [2][15] - In 2023, China's bus exports reached a record high of over 30,000 units, marking a 45% year-over-year increase [14] - The global bus market is recovering post-COVID, with demand expected to stabilize between 310,000 to 350,000 units in 2023-2024, still below pre-COVID levels [24] Key Insights on Yutong Bus - Yutong Bus is the largest bus manufacturer in China, holding a 30% market share as of 2024, with 40% of its revenue and 50% of gross profit derived from exports [4][46] - The company has a price target of Rmb38.00 based on discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis and a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 5.5% [4][46] - Yutong's sales volume is projected to grow by 5-15% year-over-year from 2025 to 2027 [47] Electric Bus Market - As of 2024, 55% of new buses sold in China are electric, with over 90% of city buses being electric [38] - Chinese bus manufacturers are leading in electric vehicle (EV) technologies, with their products being over 30% cheaper than competitors [3][39] - By 2024, 26% of China's bus exports are expected to be electric buses, targeting markets in the EU, South America, and others [39] Export Dynamics - The main target markets for Chinese e-buses include the EU, South America, and several Asian countries [39] - In H125, China’s bus export volume grew by 17% year-over-year to 25,000 units, while domestic sales declined by 9% [10] - The total addressable market for Chinese buses, excluding high-entry barrier markets, is estimated at 140,000 units annually, indicating a potential doubling of market share for Chinese OEMs by 2026 [15] Competitive Landscape - In emerging markets, Chinese manufacturers face competition from Japanese and Korean brands, while in developed markets, they compete with European and US brands [30][31] - Yutong has a significant presence in the European electric bus market, holding a 16% market share in H125 [37] Risks and Challenges - Upside risks for the bus industry include strong government subsidies for new city buses and faster-than-expected EV penetration in overseas markets [63] - Downside risks include potential tariff increases from the EU on Chinese bus exports and weak domestic demand due to increased adoption of subways and personal vehicles [63][64] Financial Performance Expectations - Yutong's gross profit margin (GPM) and net profit margin (NPM) are expected to expand from 2025 to 2027, with export margins being approximately 10 percentage points higher than domestic margins [50][52] - The company is anticipated to benefit from a better product mix, leading to faster revenue growth compared to sales volume growth [48] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the China bus industry and Yutong Bus, highlighting the transition towards exports, the growth of electric buses, competitive dynamics, and financial performance expectations.