Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of tobacco stocks, particularly Altria Group, has been notable in 2025, with shares up nearly 17% and approaching $60, a level not seen since 2017, as investors seek safe-haven stocks during uncertain times [1]. Company Overview - Altria Group, owner of the Marlboro brand, primarily operates in the U.S. market and has faced significant declines in cigarette usage, which is expected to continue, particularly among young adults [3][8]. - The company has invested in diversifying its product offerings, including cannabis, nicotine pouches, cigars, electronic vaping, and alcohol, but has experienced muted success and notable failures, such as the $12.8 billion investment in Juul, which was written down to zero [4][12]. Financial Performance - The majority of Altria's revenue, approximately 88%, still comes from smokables, with new initiatives in vaping and nicotine pouches contributing minimally to overall revenue [5]. - Cigarette volumes for Marlboro declined by 13.3% year-over-year, a significant acceleration compared to historical declines of under 5% annually, indicating a major shift in the industry [8][10]. Dividend and Profitability Risks - Altria's ability to maintain profits has relied on increasing cigarette prices and reducing overhead costs, but this strategy is not sustainable long-term as the majority of its $11.6 billion in annual operating earnings is derived from cigarettes [9][10]. - The company faces risks to its dividend growth, which could be halted or slashed if profits decline without being replaced by new nicotine consumption [9][10]. Debt and Financial Strategy - Altria has accumulated $26 billion in debt, primarily to fund stock repurchases, which has not yet led to a dividend cut but poses risks for the future as the cigarette business deteriorates [14]. - The company has reduced its shares outstanding by about 10% over the last five years, which can benefit dividend per share but is being achieved through increased leverage [13][14]. Investment Outlook - The combination of a highly leveraged balance sheet, significant volume declines, and lack of successful diversification presents a challenging outlook for Altria Group, suggesting that investors should be cautious about purchasing the stock even with its attractive dividend yield [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group is positioned as a stable investment option during market uncertainty, offering consistent dividend income and potential growth in its smoke-free product segment [2][10]. Financial Performance - Altria's net revenue after excise taxes increased by 1.6% year-over-year to $5.1 billion, despite an 8% decline in cigarette sales volume [3]. - The smokeables division generated an operating income of $10.8 billion in 2024, with a 60% operating margin, highlighting its profitability [3]. Product Strategy - Altria aims to double its smoke-free product sales to $5 billion by 2028, although it currently lags behind competitors like Philip Morris International [4]. - The company is focusing on expanding its smoke-free product offerings, including nicotine pouches and electronic vaping [4]. Capital Returns and Dividends - Altria has reduced its shares outstanding by 14% over the last 10 years, with accelerated buybacks in 2024 [6]. - The dividend per share has increased by approximately 100% over the past decade, with a current quarterly payout of $1.02 [6]. - Management plans to grow the dividend per share at a mid-single-digit percentage rate annually, around 5% through 2028 [7]. Investment Rationale - Investing $1,000 in Altria Group stock is projected to yield around $70 in annual dividend income based on the current yield [9]. - The company has demonstrated a 103% growth in free cash flow per share over the last 10 years, providing a solid foundation for future dividend increases [9][10].