Cameco (NYSE: CCJ) struggled for a decade after the Fukushima disaster of 2011. From 2011 to 2021, the Canadian uranium miner's revenue plummeted from $2.4 billion to $1.5 billion as more countries throttled or paused their nuclear expansion plans. Uranium's spot price plunged from a peak of $136 per pound in June 2007 to $18 per pound in November 2016, forcing Cameco and its peers to suspend their mining operations. But over the past few years, the growth of the power-hungry cloud and AI markets, new dec ...

Core Thesis - Centrus Energy Corp. (LEU) is positioned as a compelling investment opportunity due to its strategic role in the U.S. nuclear fuel supply chain and a derisked funding profile [3][4][5] Company Overview - Centrus Energy Corp. supplies nuclear fuel components for the nuclear power industry both domestically and internationally, producing enriched uranium essential for energy demands, including those from AI-driven industries [3][4] - The stock is currently trading at approximately 1x its backlog, indicating significant upside potential relative to its order book [3][4] Financial Position - Recent funding developments have reduced uncertainty around the company's ability to execute its growth strategy, enhancing its financial position [4] - Analysts have set a price target of $460 by mid-2027, suggesting substantial appreciation potential as the company scales to meet U.S. energy needs [4][6] Market Dynamics - Centrus's role in supplying enriched uranium creates a high barrier to entry for competitors, reinforcing the durability of its business model [4][5] - The combination of strategic importance, undervaluation, and lower financing risk positions LEU for strong performance in the coming years [4][5] Investment Appeal - LEU offers a favorable risk/reward profile, aligning strategic, financial, and market dynamics to create a unique buying opportunity [5] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for reliable energy sources, making it attractive for both equity and long-term strategic investors [5]

Industry Overview - Nuclear power is gaining momentum globally as governments seek sustainable energy sources to meet rising electricity demands, particularly with the growth of AI data centers [1] - The U.K. government is investing £18 billion (approximately $24 billion) to foster a "Golden Age" of nuclear investment, while Poland has begun construction on its first nuclear plant with EU funding of €14.2 billion (about $16.7 billion) [2] - The U.S. has passed the ADVANCE Act to streamline nuclear reactor construction, reflecting bipartisan support for nuclear energy [4][5] Company Focus: Cameco - Cameco controls mining operations capable of producing 30 million pounds of enriched uranium annually and holds 457 million pounds of proven and probable uranium reserves [7] - The company is positioned to address a portion of the 180 million pounds of global uranium demand, although the U.S. still relies on Russian imports, amounting to $624 million in 2024 [8][9] - Cameco's production of enriched uranium increased by 33% in 2023, reaching 23.4 million pounds, with forecasts of 32 to 34 million pounds in 2025 [10] Government Relations - The U.S. government has partnered with Cameco and Brookfield Asset Management to invest $80 billion in nuclear reactor construction, indicating strong governmental support for the company [11][12] Market Dynamics - The uranium market is experiencing a bullish trend, with prices rising from approximately $42 per pound in mid-2021 to $75.8, with projections of reaching $135 per pound by 2026 [13][14] - Despite a significant increase in Cameco's stock price by 86% this year, it is viewed as a buy due to potential growth in the uranium market and robust earnings growth of 33% year over year [15]

Core Thesis - Centrus Energy Corp. is positioned as a key player in the U.S. nuclear energy sector, uniquely capable of producing enriched uranium at a commercial scale, which is critical for the country's energy security and climate goals [2][3] Company Positioning - The company operates the only NRC-licensed facility in Piketon, Ohio, producing HALEU, essential for advanced reactors, thus reducing reliance on foreign suppliers [3] - Bipartisan support for nuclear energy and recent executive orders favoring domestic enrichment enhance Centrus' strategic advantage [3] Financial Strength - Centrus has a robust financial position with a contracted backlog of $3.6–3.8 billion and $833 million in cash, indicating stability amid revenue volatility [4] - The company has made significant investments in supply chain readiness and has secured a partnership with the Department of Energy to extend HALEU production [4] Market Dynamics - The demand for nuclear energy is bolstered by utilities and Big Tech companies, which supports long-term growth prospects for Centrus [3] - The stock has experienced significant volatility, with a rise of over 350% in the past year, reflecting policy-driven momentum rather than weakening fundamentals [4] Investment Outlook - Centrus is viewed as a high-risk, high-reward investment due to its unique market position and potential to become a monopoly-like supplier in the western nuclear market if production scales successfully [5]

Revenue Analysis - Russia earned approximately $27 billion from enriched uranium exports in 2023 [1] Geopolitical Implications - The diplomatic leverage Russia gains over its customers is perhaps more important than the revenue generated from enriched uranium exports [1]

Group 1 - President Trump's initiative to revive nuclear plant construction in the U.S. faces significant challenges, as highlighted by The Wall Street Journal [1][5] - Centrus Energy is primarily focused on uranium enrichment for nuclear power plants and acts as a broker for enriched uranium in the U.S. market [3][4] - The demand for uranium is closely tied to the number of operational nuclear power plants, with current efforts mainly aimed at extending licenses or restarting closed reactors, rather than increasing the number of plants [4][5] Group 2 - Historical predictions of a "nuclear renaissance" have not materialized, raising skepticism about future growth in the sector [5][6] - The high costs associated with building new nuclear plants, estimated at $30 billion or more, necessitate significant changes for Centrus to validate its current stock valuation, which is 55 times next year's expected earnings [5][6] - Despite a substantial increase in stock price over the past year, Centrus remains a speculative investment, indicating potential volatility and risk for investors [6]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a 24% increase in revenue, a 44% increase in gross profit, a 52% increase in adjusted net earnings, and a 5% increase in adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 compared to the previous year [21][22][27] - The average realized price for uranium increased year over year, despite a 30% decline in the average uranium spot price [21][22] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The uranium segment produced 6 million pounds in Q1 2025, slightly up from 5.8 million pounds in Q1 2024, with an expected total production of 18 million pounds for the year [23][24] - The Westinghouse segment reported a net loss in Q1 2025, with an expected annual net loss between $20 million and $70 million, but a 19% improvement in adjusted EBITDA compared to the previous year [22][23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Long-term contracting activity is expected to gain momentum, with the long-term price increasing from $68 per pound in January 2024 to around $80 per pound [26] - There remains a significant uncovered demand for uranium, with approximately £3.2 billion of needs through 2045 still uncontracted [20][56] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company emphasizes a long-term strategy focused on operational, marketing, and financial discipline, while remaining cautious due to the current supply discipline in the uranium market [21][34] - The company is exploring growth opportunities in uranium production, conversion, and enrichment, while also considering capital returns to shareholders in the future [31][36] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the positive long-term demand outlook for nuclear energy, despite current geopolitical and trade policy distractions [10][16] - The company is prepared to adapt to ongoing risks in the supply chain and is focused on maintaining a strong balance sheet amid geopolitical challenges [28][34] Other Important Information - The company has made significant repayments on its term loan used for the Westinghouse acquisition, indicating a strong financial position [27][28] - The company is actively managing its capital resources to ensure flexibility in delivering long-term value [27][28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the priorities for capital allocation moving forward? - The company remains in supply discipline and is focused on financial conservatism, with potential capital returns to shareholders being considered in the future [31][34] Question: What are the implications of the recent IP legal settlement with Korea for Westinghouse? - The settlement allows Westinghouse to collaborate with Korea, expanding its market opportunities for new builds [39][40] Question: What industry markers indicate a transition to normal buying prioritization? - The company noted that there is a significant uncovered demand for uranium, and utilities will eventually need to come to the market [49][52] Question: What is the outlook for the Kazakhstan business and sulfuric acid procurement? - Relations with Kazatomprom have stabilized, and production targets are being adjusted, but risks remain regarding sulfuric acid availability [60][62] Question: How is the fuel services business performing in terms of pricing? - The company is seeing strong pricing due to the rolling on of new contracts, with more upside expected as the market improves [110][113]