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谷歌DeepMind:32个随机数字,1分钟推演地球未来15天
3 6 Ke· 2025-11-18 06:38
Core Viewpoint - The launch of Google's DeepMind WeatherNext 2 represents a significant advancement in weather forecasting, providing real-time, hourly updates with enhanced speed and resolution compared to previous models [1][5]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - WeatherNext 2 operates 8 times faster than its predecessor and offers hourly resolution, allowing for precise predictions such as "light rain from 2-3 PM" instead of general forecasts [1][5]. - The model generates multiple potential weather scenarios from the same input, producing dozens to hundreds of possible weather evolution scenarios [3]. - Traditional supercomputers require hours for similar tasks, while WeatherNext 2 can complete them in under a minute using a single TPU [5][15]. Group 2: Importance of Detailed Forecasting - Many industries, including energy, urban management, agriculture, logistics, and aviation, rely heavily on accurate weather forecasts for decision-making [6]. - The atmospheric system is complex and chaotic, where small disturbances can significantly impact weather patterns days in advance [6]. Group 3: Functional Generative Networks (FGN) - The key to WeatherNext 2's speed and accuracy lies in the new Functional Generative Networks (FGN) approach, which introduces slight, globally consistent random perturbations to the model [8][10]. - FGN allows the model to act as a sampleable random function, generating high-dimensional global weather changes from a low-dimensional random vector [12]. - This method has resulted in a model that can produce coherent and physically structured weather predictions, outperforming previous models like GenCast in terms of prediction error and probability performance [13]. Group 4: Performance Metrics - FGN can predict extreme weather events, such as typhoon paths, with a lead time of approximately 24 hours compared to GenCast, which is crucial for emergency decision-making and traffic management [13]. - Generating a 15-day global forecast takes less than a minute on a single TPU, marking an 8-fold increase in speed [15].