Accessible version 更多资料加入知识星球：水木调研纪要 关注公众号：水木纪要 Liquid Cross Border Flows • EM FX: Our flows turned constructive in EMEA (TRY, ZAR, HUF) and LatAm (BRL) amid carry-seeking flows and Ukraine peace hopes Meaningful EURUSD supply at month-end EURUSD supply was our flows' main highlight last week (Exhibit 1, Exhibit 8). It was driven by corporates (month-end flows), Hedge Funds, and Officials. But investor flows' divergence continued, with Asset Managers selling USD vs EUR and LatAm (Exhibit 2). We remain mediu ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the foreign exchange (FX) market, focusing on positioning and sentiment regarding various currencies, particularly the US Dollar Index (DXY), Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and others. Core Insights and Arguments - **DXY Positioning**: Investors have modestly reduced their short positions in the DXY, indicating a cautious sentiment ahead of the Federal Reserve's decisions [8][22]. - **Currency Positioning Changes**: - Investors have reduced short NZD positions and increased long EUR positions [8][13]. - There is an increase in short positions for USD (DXY) and NOK against EUR [8][13]. - In the futures market, short USD positions have been trimmed, while long GBP and NZD positions have also been reduced [8][13]. - **Tactical Investor Sentiment**: Current options data suggest that tactical investors are predominantly long on EUR and AUD, while being short on NOK and SEK against EUR [15][18]. - **Futures Market Positioning**: The futures market shows long positions in EUR and JPY, with short positions in CHF and AUD [15][18]. - **Speculative Positioning**: Speculative USD (DXY) futures positioning has increased to -4.2% of open interest, indicating a shift in sentiment from -8.9% the previous week [22]. Additional Important Information - **Sentiment Index**: The Daily Sentiment Index for NZD showed the largest improvement, while sentiment for USD and JPY deteriorated the most among G10 currencies [22]. - **Options Data**: The options pricing data indicates a shift in investor behavior, with a notable increase in long positions for EUR and AUD, reflecting a strategic pivot in response to market conditions [8][15]. - **Analyst Insights**: Analysts from Morgan Stanley have provided insights into the FX market dynamics, emphasizing the importance of monitoring positioning and sentiment as indicators of future market movements [6][31]. Conclusion - The FX market is currently experiencing shifts in positioning, particularly with a reduction in short USD positions and an increase in long EUR positions. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding these changes as they may signal broader market trends and potential investment opportunities.