Currency Market - The EUR/USD pair fell to a 6-week low, finishing down by -0.08% due to dollar strength, despite initial gains following comments from ECB Chief Economist Philip Lane regarding comfortable monetary policy settings [1] - The dollar is under pressure as the Fed increases liquidity by purchasing $40 billion a month in T-bills, and concerns arise over President Trump's potential appointment of a dovish Fed Chair [2] - The dollar index (DXY) rose by +0.04% after recovering from early losses, supported by stronger-than-expected US manufacturing production and Trump's reluctance to nominate a dovish candidate for Fed Chair [6] Economic Indicators - The US December manufacturing production unexpectedly rose by +0.2% month-over-month, contrary to expectations of a -0.1% decline, with November's production revised upward to +0.3% [4] - The January NAHB housing market index unexpectedly fell by -2 to 37, weaker than the anticipated increase to 40 [3] Japanese Yen Dynamics - The USD/JPY pair fell by -0.35% as the yen strengthened following hawkish comments from Japanese Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama, who indicated readiness for bold action to support the yen [8] - Concerns over the yen's weakness are exacerbated by potential political instability, with reports suggesting a snap election could be called, raising fears of continued expansionary fiscal policy [10] - The yen is also affected by escalating tensions between China and Japan, particularly following China's export controls that could impact Japan's economy [11] Precious Metals Market - February COMEX gold closed down -28.30 (-0.61%), and March COMEX silver closed down -3.810 (-4.12%) due to higher global bond yields and easing geopolitical risks in Iran [12][13] - Demand for precious metals is supported by concerns over the Fed's independence and potential easier monetary policy, as well as ongoing geopolitical risks [16][18] - Strong central bank demand for gold is evident, with China's PBOC increasing its reserves by +30,000 ounces to 74.15 million troy ounces in December, marking the fourteenth consecutive month of increases [19]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve officials express a preference for maintaining a restrictive monetary policy stance to combat persistent inflation, with some dissenting against recent interest rate cuts due to ongoing economic momentum and inflation concerns [1][2][4][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Officials' Stance - Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack advocates for a slightly more restrictive stance to exert pressure on inflation [1]. - Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid dissents against the FOMC's decision to cut interest rates, preferring a modestly restrictive policy due to high inflation and economic momentum [1][4]. - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee also voted against the rate cut, emphasizing the need for more information before making such decisions given the prolonged inflation above target [2][4]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Economic Indicators - The dollar index rose by 0.02% on Friday, supported by hawkish comments from Fed officials and increased T-note yields [4]. - The markets are currently pricing a 24% chance of a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds target range at the upcoming FOMC meeting [5]. - The euro gained 0.06% against the dollar, influenced by divergent central bank policies, with expectations that the Fed will continue cutting rates while the ECB has concluded its rate-cutting campaign [6]. Group 3: Precious Metals Market - Gold prices reached a 7-week high, while silver experienced mixed results, influenced by a stronger dollar and higher T-note yields [9][10]. - Central bank demand for gold remains strong, with China's PBOC increasing its reserves by 30,000 ounces to 74.1 million troy ounces in November, marking the thirteenth consecutive month of increases [12]. - Concerns over tight Chinese silver inventories have emerged, with stocks in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses falling to the lowest level in 10 years [13].