The latest US Federal Open Market Committee meeting gets under way Tuesday, culminating with an announcement on interest rates Wednesday afternoon (13:00 CT). A look at the Fed fund futures forward curve shows the market is expecting US Fed Chairman Powell to announce no change in rates, leaving it between 3.5% and 3.75%, shifting the spotlight to the March (17 and 18), April (28 and 29), and June (16 and 17) meetings. Amidst all that, Jerome Powell’s term as Chairman comes to an end in May meaning the U ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates a 25-basis point rate cut by the US Federal Open Market Committee, with expectations of the rate falling to 3.735% from the current range of 3.75% to 4.0% [1] Interest Rate Expectations - The December futures contract indicates a high probability (85% to 90%) of a rate cut, which is expected to weaken the US dollar and encourage investment in US equities [1] Currency and Stock Market Reactions - The US dollar is showing signs of weakness, down by 0.26% overnight, while US stock index futures are performing positively [1] Commodity Market Performance - The commodity market is experiencing gains, particularly in the Energies sector with a cumulative increase of 0.9%, and metals are up by 0.4%, with Dr. Copper showing a 1.9% overnight gain [1] Impact on Ethanol and Fuel Standards - The US president's decision to roll back fuel economy standards may increase gasoline demand, potentially benefiting ethanol standards, although there are concerns regarding refinery hardship waivers and ties to OPEC+ leaders [1]