Core Insights - Galaxy Digital is expected to report a decline in fourth-quarter results after a strong third quarter, with a maintained buy rating and a $46 price target due to a strategic shift towards AI/HPC [1] Financial Performance - Revenue is projected to exceed consensus estimates, but Galaxy will struggle to surpass the previous quarter's revenue, which included a one-time $9 billion bitcoin transaction [2] - Rosenblatt updated financial estimates, projecting adjusted EBITDA of $386.7 million for 2025, $169.8 million for 2026, and $648.7 million for 2027, with the $46 price target based on a multiple of 28 times the 2027 adjusted EBITDA estimate [3] Business Segments - The data center business segment is expected to regain focus as a primary narrative driver, with the Helios campus receiving regulatory approval for an additional 830 MW of power, totaling approximately 1.6 GW, enhancing optionality for AI infrastructure demand [4] - The crypto financial services segment experienced a deceleration in sector-wide trading activity, with average daily crypto trading volume increasing 9% in October but falling 16% in November and 34% in December, leading to an estimated 15% decline in total cryptocurrency market volumes quarter-over-quarter [5] Revenue Projections - The blockchain rewards revenue segment, including staking and mining rewards, is projected to rebound by 22% to $63.7 million, attributed to a 110% increase in staked assets to $6.6 billion [7] - Fee income is expected to decline to approximately $26.7 million, down from $104.3 million in the third quarter, reflecting a normalization of activity after an IPO-related engagement, yet remaining about 57% higher than levels seen in the second quarter of 2025 [8]