证券研究报告·公司点评报告·专业工程 2025 年三季报点评：营收增长提速，关注海 外拓展增量 买入（维持） | [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 2,009 | 2,008 | 2,912 | 3,552 | 4,298 | | 同比（%） | 23.41 | (0.06) | 45.02 | 21.99 | 21.00 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 138.59 | 114.40 | 152.61 | 206.24 | 259.24 | | 同比（%） | 12.80 | (17.45) | 33.39 | 35.15 | 25.70 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.39 | 1.14 | 1.53 | 2.06 | 2.59 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 31.21 | 37.81 | 28.34 | 20.97 | 16.68 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ...

Group 1 - The global semiconductor industry is expected to grow from $631 billion in 2024 to over $1 trillion by 2030, with a CAGR of approximately 8%, driven mainly by AI and HPC [1] - SEMI forecasts a 10% year-on-year increase in global WFE capital expenditure in 2026, accelerating from 6% in 2025, reflecting strong growth in advanced process logic and memory capital expenditures driven by AI [1] - Advanced packaging has become a hot topic in the industry, with Nvidia indicating that the number of transistors required for current AI chips far exceeds the single-chip limit, making advanced packaging technology crucial for overcoming computing power bottlenecks [1] Group 2 - The integrated circuit ETF (159546) tracks the integrated circuit index (932087), which primarily covers listed companies in semiconductor design, manufacturing, packaging testing, and related materials and equipment, selecting companies with high growth potential and strong technological innovation to reflect the overall performance and development trends of China's integrated circuit industry [1]

Core Viewpoint - JonesResearch initiated coverage of Bitdeer (BTDR) with a Buy rating and a $32 price target, applying a 20x EV/EBITDA multiple to its 2026 EBITDA estimate of $435.5 million, indicating confidence in Bitdeer's leadership in HPC hosting and potential upside from colocation deals [1] Company Overview - Bitdeer operates a vertically integrated model, designing, manufacturing, and deploying its Sealminer rigs, which is expected to lower self-mining gross margins from a hashcost of $0.037/TH to fleet efficiencies of 14.2 J/TH by the end of 2027 [2] - External Sealminer sales are conservatively modeled at 19 EH/s in 2026 and 32 EH/s in 2027, representing a significant opportunity in the $3 billion–$5 billion ASIC hardware market [2] - Bitdeer is positioned to capture market share from competitors like Bitmain, especially among new entrants [2] Valuation Metrics - Bitdeer trades at 6.8–10.6x EV/EBITDA on 2026 estimates, significantly below the coverage universe's median of 18.3–28.7x [2] - The report highlights substantial unrecognized value in two AI/HPC colocation assets: the 570 MW Clarington, Ohio site valued at $26.64–$36.46 per share and the 309 MW Norwegian portfolio worth $14.44–$19.77 per share [2] Key Catalysts - Key catalysts for Bitdeer include closing colocation leases at Clarington and Norway, as well as the planned release of the next-generation Sealminer A4-2 rig targeting 5.5–6.0 J/TH efficiency in late 2026 [3]

Core Thesis - The company Bitfarms Ltd. (NASDAQ: BITF) is initiating coverage with a Buy rating, focusing on its successful transition from BTC mining to AI/HPC development, which is seen as a strategic advantage due to its concentration of data [1]. Company Overview - Bitfarms is pivoting its business model to capitalize on opportunities in artificial intelligence and high-performance computing, moving away from its traditional focus on Bitcoin mining [1]. Strategic Advantages - The company's strategic advantage is highlighted by its concentration of data, which is essential for AI and HPC applications, positioning it favorably in the evolving tech landscape [1].

I am initiating coverage on Bitfarms Ltd. (NASDAQ: BITF ) with a Buy rating, with my thesis being a successful pivot to AI/HPC development from BTC mining. The company's strategic advantage lies in its concentration of dataHello. I am a graduate from Bocconi University with a degree in Economics and a concentration in Quantitative Economics. I am currently working at a management consultancy. Previously, I have done internships in private equity (technology buyouts) and venture capital (seed-stage space-tec ...

Summary of Key Takeaways from SEMICON Taiwan 2025 Industry Overview - The conference focused on the semiconductor industry, particularly advancements in probe card technology and packaging solutions, with significant participation from various companies in the sector [1][2][3]. Company Highlights MPI (6223.TWO; Buy) - MPI presented various probe card solutions, including: - **Kestrel Probe Card**: Designed for low force probing, ideal for pitches above 70μm, applicable in HPC/AI ASICs/GPUs. - **Osprey Probe Card**: Targets finer pitches down to 40μm, suitable for SSD and networking applications. - **EVS Probe Card**: Features MEMS-like characteristics, ideal for pitches above 80μm with higher current carrying capacity [2]. - Management noted a significant increase in average pin counts for AI/HPC applications, rising from 20-25k to over 30k pins, with expectations to expand MEMS capacity to 2 million pins by Q1 2026 [3]. WinWay (6515.TW; Buy) - WinWay introduced a new product, the **hyper socket**, which addresses sensitive contact resistance test requirements and is priced 20-30% higher than coaxial sockets. Demand for system-level testing (SLT) is expected to be 4-5 times larger than final testing (FT) [4][6]. - Management anticipates flattish revenue growth into 2026, supported by MEMS probe card demand for CPU/networking applications [7]. GPTC (3131.TWO; Buy) - GPTC expects sequential revenue growth into Q3 and Q4 2025, driven by strong demand from OSAT customers. Management is optimistic about maintaining at least flattish growth in 2026 [8]. - The company has introduced a new X-ray inspection tool for defect detection, which is expected to contribute to earnings in 2026 and beyond [9]. All Ring (6187.TWO; Buy) - All Ring showcased its latest **CPO Active Alignment equipment**, which automates the bonding of Fiber Array Units onto Photonic Integrated Circuits. The company is also expanding its underfill solutions for panel-level packaging, with initial shipments expected in 2026 [10][11][13]. - Management anticipates that CoWoS equipment shipments in 2026 will match or exceed 2025 levels, driven by innovations in advanced packaging technologies [13]. Kinik (1560.TW; Not Covered) - Kinik reported a significant increase in market share for diamond disks, rising from 30-40% at mature nodes to 70% at the 3nm node, with expectations to reach 80% at the 2nm node. The company plans to expand reclaim wafer capacity from 300kwpm in 2025 to 400kwpm in 2026 [15][16]. PVI (7768.TWO; Not Covered) - PVI's CMP pads are expected to be a primary growth driver, with management confident in increasing market share from a current 3%. The company is expanding capacity with two new fabs expected to be operational in Q1 2026 [20]. G2C Alliance - C Sun (2467.TW; Not Covered) - C Sun reported that semiconductor and PCB-related revenue accounted for 40% and 51% of total revenue in 1H25, respectively. The company is making strides in advanced packaging and expects initial client demand for burn-in testing ovens in Q4 2025 [21]. GPM (5443.TWO; Not Covered) - GPM is supplying new CMP equipment to reclaim wafer manufacturers, responding to rising quality requirements as the industry transitions to the 2nm node [22]. GMM (6640.TW; Not Covered) - GMM holds over 90% market share in the chip sorter market and anticipates rapid growth in its chip bonder segment, with expectations for 2H25 revenue to surpass 1H25 [23]. Valuation and Risks - **MPI**: Target price of NT$1,420, with risks including softer AI/HPC demand and intensifying competition [25][26]. - **WinWay**: Target price of NT$1,465, with similar risks as MPI [27][28]. - **GPTC**: Target price of NT$1,900, with risks including slower adoption of new technologies [29][30]. - **All Ring**: Target price of NT$475, facing risks related to AI/HPC demand and competition [31][32]. Conclusion - The semiconductor industry is poised for growth, particularly in AI and HPC applications, with companies like MPI, WinWay, and GPTC leading innovations in probe card technology and advanced packaging solutions. The outlook for 2026 appears optimistic, although potential risks related to demand and competition remain.

Core Insights - The semiconductor foundry industry is experiencing significant differentiation, with TSMC capturing the majority of revenue growth, indicating a recovery from the industry's low point [1][5][34] - TSMC's revenue reached $30.239 billion in Q2 2025, commanding a market share of 70.2%, positioning it as the dominant player in the market [2][6] - The overall landscape shows a trend of "one strong, many strong," with TSMC's advanced processes leading the way while other companies face various challenges [6][14] Company Performance - TSMC's half-year revenue totaled $55.6 billion, with a gross margin of 58.7% and a net profit of $24 billion, showcasing its strong market position [6][19] - Samsung Foundry's revenue for the first half was less than $6.2 billion, with a market share around 7%, highlighting its struggles compared to TSMC [10][27] - SMIC reported a half-year revenue of $4.46 billion, with a gross margin of 21.4%, but faced challenges with high depreciation costs and limited average selling price (ASP) increases [11][30] Market Trends - The demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) is driving the polarization of advanced processes and packaging, with TSMC positioned as a key player in this shift [15][19] - The mature process segment is undergoing a structural recovery after a period of inventory clearance, with companies like UMC and VIS showing improved margins [21][22] - Geopolitical factors are reshaping the global supply chain, leading to a trend of localized production and a more fragmented capacity distribution [22][24] Future Outlook - TSMC plans to expand its CoWoS packaging capacity, which is critical for AI chip production, with orders already extending into 2026 [26][34] - Samsung is betting on its 2nm process to regain competitiveness, but faces risks associated with its current market position [27][28] - For companies like SMIC and Huahong, improving profitability will be crucial for maintaining their positions in the global supply chain [29][31]

Core Viewpoint - Riot Platforms, Inc. is set to hold its second quarter 2025 earnings conference call on July 31, 2025, to discuss the financial results for the quarter ending June 30, 2025 [1] Company Overview - Riot Platforms, Inc. aims to be the leading Bitcoin-driven infrastructure platform, focusing on innovative solutions and community partnerships to achieve best-in-class execution [3] - The company operates Bitcoin mining facilities in central Texas and Kentucky, along with electrical engineering and fabrication operations in Denver, Colorado, and Houston, Texas [4] Conference Call Details - The earnings conference call will be accessible via an audio-only webcast, with registration links provided for participants in the United States and internationally [2]

Summary of Conference Call on Taiwan Technology: Semiconductors Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards more complex chip designs, particularly in the AI and High-Performance Computing (HPC) segments, which is driving demand for advanced chip testing [1][11][58]. - The probe card and socket markets are projected to grow steadily, with the probe card market reaching US$2.5 billion and the socket market reaching US$1.6 billion in 2024, representing approximately 17% and 11% of the total testing equipment market, respectively [52]. Key Companies MPI (6223.TWO) - MPI is ranked as the 4th largest probe card provider globally, with 57% of its revenue in 2024 derived from probe cards [10][52]. - The company is expected to achieve a revenue CAGR of 19% from 2024 to 2027, driven by increased demand in the AI/HPC segments [14][33]. - MPI's market share in the probe card market is projected to rise from 7% in 2024 to 11% by 2027 [13]. WinWay (6515.TW) - WinWay is the 2nd largest socket provider globally, generating 71% of its revenue from test and burn-in sockets [10][52]. - The company is expected to see a revenue CAGR of 23% from 2024 to 2027, benefiting from its expansion into the probe card market [14][37]. - WinWay's market share in the socket market is expected to increase from 8% in 2024 to 14% by 2027 [13]. Investment Opportunities - Both MPI and WinWay are initiated with a Buy rating and target prices of NT$1,000 and NT$1,500, respectively, implying potential upsides of approximately 41% and 54% [3][16]. - The investment thesis is supported by: 1. Increasing dollar content in the testing industry due to AI and HPC trends, leading to a doubling of average selling prices (ASPs) for probe cards and sockets [3][11][59]. 2. Local advantages for Taiwanese vendors, including proximity to leading foundries like TSMC and OSAT companies, which are expected to enhance market share [13][12]. 3. Expansion into new markets, particularly in high-margin segments like MEMS probe cards for MPI and probe cards for WinWay [14][58]. Financial Performance - MPI's earnings are forecasted to grow at a CAGR of 28% from 2024 to 2027, while WinWay's earnings are expected to grow at a CAGR of 37% during the same period [39][41]. - MPI's 2024 revenue is projected at NT$10.17 billion, with net income expected to reach NT$2.30 billion [10][33]. - WinWay's 2024 revenue is projected at NT$5.80 billion, with net income expected to reach NT$1.19 billion [18][37]. Risks - Potential downside risks include softer demand in AI and HPC markets, slower penetration into new total addressable markets (TAM), and intensifying competition [4]. Conclusion - The semiconductor testing industry, particularly for advanced chip testing, is poised for significant growth driven by increasing complexity in chip designs and the demand for faster time to market. MPI and WinWay are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, making them attractive investment opportunities despite current market volatility.

Core Insights - Riot Platforms, Inc. reported a record total revenue of $161.4 million for Q1 2025, a significant increase from $79.3 million in Q1 2024, primarily driven by a $71.5 million rise in Bitcoin mining revenue [9] - The company produced 1,530 bitcoins in Q1 2025, compared to 1,364 bitcoins in the same period of 2024 [9] - The average cost to mine one bitcoin, excluding depreciation, was $43,808 in Q1 2025, up from $23,034 in Q1 2024, largely due to the block subsidy halving event and a 41% increase in the average global network hash rate [9] Financial Performance - Bitcoin mining revenue reached $142.9 million in Q1 2025, compared to $71.4 million in Q1 2024, driven by higher average bitcoin prices and increased operational hash rate [9] - Engineering revenue for the quarter was $13.9 million, up from $4.7 million in the same period last year, now including results from E4A Solutions, LLC, acquired in December 2024 [9] - The company maintained a strong financial position with $310.3 million in working capital, including $163.7 million in unrestricted cash and $71.0 million in marketable equity securities [9] Strategic Developments - Riot acquired Rhodium's mining operations and tangible property at the Rockdale Facility, repurposing 125 MW of power capacity for self-mining operations, eliminating nearly $15 million in operating losses from a legacy contract in 2024 [3] - The company is advancing its AI/HPC data center business, with a feasibility study indicating the Corsicana site as an attractive asset for data center tenants, and is enhancing the site with additional development land and improved connectivity [4] - Construction on a substation at the Corsicana Facility is ongoing, expected to bring a total of 1.0 GW of power capacity online by early 2026 [4]