Company Overview - Nomad Foods is a leader in the frozen food category in Europe, with well-known brands such as Birds Eye, iglo, and Findus, as well as regional brands like Ledo and Frikom in Serbia and Croatia, and Goodfella's pizza in the U.K. [2] Financial Performance - The company has achieved consistent growth over the past 9 years, increasing sales, EBITDA, and EPS annually, although it did not achieve this for the 10th consecutive year, which is a point of frustration for the management [3]

Core Insights - Nomad Foods Limited reported a challenging second quarter in 2025, with unfavorable weather impacting consumer behavior and sales, leading to a decrease in revenue and profit metrics [2][5][7] - The company has lowered its full-year guidance for organic revenue and Adjusted EBITDA due to weaker-than-expected first half results, now expecting organic revenue to be flat to -2% and Adjusted EBITDA to decline by 3% to 7% year-on-year [5][8] Financial Performance - Revenue for the second quarter of 2025 decreased by 0.8% to €747 million compared to the same period in 2024, with organic revenue declining by 1.1% driven by a volume decline of 1.0% and a price/mix decline of 0.1% [7][8] - Adjusted EBITDA for the second quarter decreased by 7.2% to €129 million, while Adjusted EPS decreased by 9.1% to €0.40 [7][8] - For the first six months of 2025, revenue decreased by 1.9% to €1,507 million, with organic revenue down 2.4% due to a volume decline of 2.3% [8][23] Market Position and Strategy - Despite external challenges, Nomad Foods improved its market share in the quarter, with retail sell-out growth accelerating to +1% for the second quarter, bringing year-to-date growth to +0.7% [2][5] - The company is focusing on innovation and renovation initiatives to drive future growth, with expectations of organic sales returning to growth in the second half of the year, assuming normalized weather conditions [2][5] Guidance and Outlook - The revised full-year guidance includes an expected Adjusted EPS range of €1.64 to €1.76, down from the previous range of €1.82 to €1.89, translating to a USD range of $1.89 to $2.02 based on the July 30, 2025 exchange rate [5][8] - The company maintains its full-year adjusted free cash flow conversion guidance of 90% or greater, indicating a focus on cash generation despite the current challenges [5][8]

Group 1 - Nomad Foods Limited will report its second quarter results for the period ended June 30, 2025, before the market opens on August 6, 2025 [1] - A conference call with the executive management team is scheduled for 8:30 AM Eastern Daylight Time on August 6, 2025, to discuss the results [2] - The conference call will be accompanied by a presentation and will be webcast, accessible via the Nomad Foods website [2] Group 2 - Nomad Foods is recognized as Europe's leading frozen food company, with a portfolio that includes well-known brands such as Birds Eye, Findus, iglo, Ledo, and Frikom [3] - The company emphasizes its commitment to providing great tasting, convenient, high-quality, and nutritious food options for consumers [3] - Nomad Foods is headquartered in the United Kingdom, and additional information can be found on its website [3]

Company Performance & Strategy - Nomad Foods' revenue reached €3.1 billion in 2024, demonstrating a 6% Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) [11] - Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) showed a 10% CAGR, reaching €1.78 in 2024 [12] - Adjusted Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) exhibited a 7% CAGR, totaling €565 million in 2024 [12] - The company aims for 0-2% organic revenue growth and 2-6% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025 [77] - Nomad Foods anticipates generating over €850 million in adjusted free cash flow over the next three years (2025-2027) [83] Market Position & Category - Nomad Foods holds the 1 brand preference in 12 out of 15 markets [19] - The company has a 46% weighted average value market share in its top 25 must-win battles [19] - European frozen retail sales amount to €55.4 billion, with food accounting for €39.2 billion and ice cream for €16.2 billion [15] - Meals made from frozen food cost €2-3 less compared to chilled equivalents [25] Innovation & Investment - Advertising and Promotion (A&P) spending increased by 14% year-over-year in 2023 and is projected to increase by 7% year-over-year in 2024 [38] - Innovation as a percentage of revenue is projected to reach near 5% in 2025 [41] - The company aims for 60% superior quality perception by 2025 and 80% by 2027 [43, 45]

Market Overview - Volatility has returned to Wall Street, driven by tariff fears and high inflation impacting consumer sentiment [1][2] - Consumer sentiment index dropped to 50.8 in May, a 2.7% decline from April, marking one of the lowest points in 75 years [5] - Since January, consumer sentiment has decreased by nearly 30%, with short-term inflation expectations rising to 7.3% in May from 6.5% [6] Federal Reserve and Inflation - The Federal Reserve is unlikely to implement interest rate cuts in the near term, maintaining a cautious stance despite signs of easing inflation [8] - The consumer price index rose by only 0.2% in April, with a year-over-year increase of 2.3%, the smallest since February 2021 [7] Tariff Impact - President Trump's announcement of sweeping tariffs raised concerns about a potential global trade war, leading to market sell-offs [9][11] - A recent 90-day trade truce with China has temporarily calmed the situation, delaying additional tariffs [10] Investment Opportunities - Recommended focus on safe-haven stocks, particularly low-beta consumer staples with high dividend yields [3][4] - Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) has an expected earnings growth rate of 13.7% for the current year and a dividend yield of 3.09% [14] - Nomad Foods Limited (NOMD) has an expected earnings growth rate of 7.3% and a dividend yield of 3.80% [16] - Zevia PBC (ZVIA) shows a significant expected earnings growth rate of 38.7% for the current year [17]

Core Insights - Nomad Foods Limited reported a decrease in revenue and adjusted EBITDA for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024, primarily due to retailer inventory destocking and the timing of Easter impacting sales growth [1][5][6] - The company has recalibrated its full-year sales, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS expectations, anticipating organic revenue growth of 0%-2% and adjusted EBITDA growth of 0%-2% for 2025 [4][5][6] Financial Performance - Revenue decreased by 3.0% to €760 million, with organic revenue declining by 3.6% driven by a volume decline of 3.7% [5][6] - Gross margin expanded by 90 basis points to 27.8%, attributed to supply chain productivity improvements [5][6] - Adjusted EBITDA decreased by 1.8% to €120 million, while adjusted EPS fell by 5.4% to €0.35 [5][6] Management Commentary - CEO Stéfan Descheemaeker highlighted strong gross margin improvement and ongoing investment in growth platforms and innovation, despite challenges from retailer destocking and macroeconomic uncertainties [2][4] - Co-Chairman Noam Gottesman expressed confidence in the company's growth potential, noting the strength of its leading brands and portfolio in the healthy frozen food category in Europe [2][4] 2025 Guidance - The company has lowered its full-year revenue and adjusted EBITDA outlook due to unexpected retailer inventory destocking and higher input cost inflation, with adjusted EPS guidance now set at €1.82-€1.89 [4][5] - The adjusted free cash flow conversion guidance remains at 90% or greater [4] Key Metrics - Adjusted EBITDA margin for the first quarter of 2025 was 15.8%, compared to 15.6% in the previous year [35] - The company maintained a strong cash flow position, with cash and cash equivalents at €329.8 million as of March 31, 2025 [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment favors stable earnings and strong cash flow, making Nomad Foods (NOMD) an attractive investment opportunity in the frozen food sector [1]. Company Overview - Nomad Foods is a leading player in the European frozen food market, owning brands such as Birds Eye, Iglo, Findus, and Aunt Bessie's, which provides it with durable pricing power and a loyal customer base [2]. - The company focuses on branded frozen foods across Western Europe, which has proven to be a lucrative business model during uncertain economic times [2]. Earnings Estimates and Growth - Recent earnings estimate revisions have garnered attention from analysts, with two analysts increasing their estimates for both the current and next year [3]. - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2024 EPS has risen from $1.95 to $2.15, and for 2025 from $2.11 to $2.31, indicating confidence in the company's near-term execution and long-term profitability [4]. - Nomad Foods is expected to grow earnings by over 11.4% this year and an additional 7% next year, which is strong for a consumer staples stock [4]. Valuation Metrics - Despite positive earnings revisions, Nomad Foods trades at a forward P/E of just 9.3x, significantly lower than the broader market and most consumer staples peers, presenting a compelling entry point for investors [5]. Cash Flow and Financial Health - The company has consistently converted a healthy portion of its earnings into free cash flow, allowing it to reinvest in growth, pay down debt, and return value to shareholders [6]. - Nomad Foods is positioned well in a market that rewards consistency and stability, making it an appealing investment choice [6].