Key Takeaways Ford shares gained 23.4% in six months, supported by stronger sales and electrified vehicle growth.Model e revenues doubled to $2.4B in Q2, while Ford Pro drove growth with high-margin recurring revenues.Ford faces $3B in tariffs for 2025 and over 100 recalls so far this year, pressuring costs and margins.Ford Motor Company (F) shares have gained 23.4% over the past six months compared to the Zacks Automotive – Domestic industry’s growth of 38.4%. In the past six months, Ford has outperformed ...

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company reported second-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of 37 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents but down from 47 cents in the previous year [2] - Consolidated revenues for the second quarter reached $50.18 billion, a 5% increase year over year, with total automotive revenues at $46.94 billion, surpassing estimates [2] Segment Performance - Ford Blue segment's wholesale volume decreased by 6% year over year to 696,000 units, with revenues declining 3% to $25.8 billion, although it exceeded expectations [3] - Ford Model e segment saw a significant increase in wholesale volume, rising 218% to 60,000 units, with revenues jumping 105% to $2.4 billion, despite a loss before interest and taxes of $1.33 billion [4] - Ford Pro segment's wholesale volume increased by 15% to 429,000 units, with revenues rising 11% to $18.8 billion, and earnings before interest and taxes at $2.32 billion [5] - Ford Credit unit reported revenues of $3.24 billion, an 8.3% increase year over year, with pretax earnings up 88% to approximately $645 million [6] Financial Position - Ford reported adjusted free cash flow of $2.83 billion for the quarter, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $23 billion as of June 30, 2025, and long-term debt at $16.74 billion [7] 2025 Outlook - The company expects full-year 2025 adjusted EBIT to be in the range of $6.5-$7.5 billion, down from $10.2 billion in 2024, factoring in a net tariff-related headwind of nearly $2 billion [8] - Adjusted free cash flow is anticipated to be between $3.5-$4.5 billion, down from $6.7 billion in 2024, with capital expenditures expected around $9 billion [8] Estimate Trends - Estimates for Ford have trended downward over the past month, indicating a cautious outlook [9][12] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), suggesting an expectation of in-line returns in the coming months [12] Industry Performance - Ford is part of the Zacks Automotive - Domestic industry, where General Motors reported a revenue decline of 1.8% year over year, with an EPS drop from $3.06 to $2.53 [13] - General Motors is expected to post earnings of $2.32 per share for the current quarter, reflecting a year-over-year change of -21.6% [14]

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company reported $46.94 billion in revenue for the quarter ended June 2025, marking a year-over-year increase of 4.8% and a surprise of +12.52% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $41.72 billion [1] - The EPS for the same period was $0.37, down from $0.47 a year ago, with an EPS surprise of +8.82% compared to the consensus estimate of $0.34 [1] Financial Performance Metrics - Wholesale Units for Ford Blue reached 696 thousand, exceeding the average estimate of 635.02 thousand [4] - Wholesale Units for Ford Pro were 429 thousand, compared to the average estimate of 377.94 thousand [4] - Wholesale Units for Ford Model e totaled 60 thousand, surpassing the average estimate of 35.7 thousand [4] - Revenues excluding Ford Credit were $46.94 billion, compared to the average estimate of $41.15 billion, reflecting a +4.8% year-over-year change [4] - Revenues from Ford Credit were $3.24 billion, exceeding the average estimate of $3.11 billion, representing an +8.1% change from the previous year [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Credit was $645 million, compared to the average estimate of $431.54 million [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Model e was -$1.33 billion, slightly better than the average estimate of -$1.37 billion [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Corporate Other was -$155 million, compared to the average estimate of -$289.22 million [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Blue was $661 million, below the average estimate of $850.84 million [4] - Adjusted EBIT for Ford Pro was $2.32 billion, slightly below the average estimate of $2.35 billion [4] Stock Performance - Ford Motor's shares have returned -2.4% over the past month, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has increased by +3.4% [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold), indicating potential performance in line with the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record revenue of $50 billion for Q2 2025, with an adjusted EBIT of $2.1 billion, reflecting year-over-year improvement in costs [8][32] - The full-year adjusted EBIT guidance was updated to a range of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion, net of tariffs [9][38] - Adjusted free cash flow was solid at $2.8 billion, with a strong balance sheet showing over $28 billion in cash and $46 billion in liquidity [36][37] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ford Pro's revenue grew 11% to nearly $19 billion, with a 12.3% EBIT margin driven by a strong product lineup and disciplined pricing [33] - Model E revenue more than doubled to $2.4 billion, with margins improving nearly 44 points due to a favorable product mix [34] - Ford Blue earned nearly $700 million in the quarter, reflecting profitable market share gains and higher net pricing [35] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the U.S., Ford's sales grew 7 times faster than the industry, with market share up 1.7 points sequentially [20] - The company sold more electrified vehicles than its two main domestic rivals combined, with EVs and hybrids making up close to 14% of the U.S. mix [21] - Outside the U.S., Ford gained market share in key regions such as Canada, Europe, South America, and the Middle East [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is shifting capital towards Ford Pro, reallocating resources from future EV programs to accelerate growth in high-margin services [10] - Ford aims to enhance its product lineup with a focus on trucks and iconic products, while also investing in low CO2 emissions technologies [14] - The company is committed to improving vehicle quality and reducing warranty costs, with a focus on achieving world-class vehicle quality [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the impact of tariffs, estimating a net headwind of about $2 billion for the year, while expressing confidence in the company's cycle plan [13][39] - The management team emphasized the importance of capital efficiency and cost improvement, with a strong balance sheet providing flexibility to invest through economic downturns [38][40] - The company is optimistic about the future, with a focus on sustainable improvements in warranty and material costs [44] Other Important Information - The company announced a regular dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on September 2, reflecting its commitment to return capital to shareholders [38] - Ford's transformation journey is well underway, with a focus on building a higher growth, higher margin, and more capital-efficient business [32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Drivers of guidance change and improvement - Management noted that the guidance reflects strong improvement in the business, particularly in cost areas, despite absorbing larger tariffs [42][43] Question: Sustainability of market share - Management expressed confidence in sustaining market share gains into the second half of the year, supported by a strong product portfolio [61][62] Question: Balancing emissions policy and EV technology - Management highlighted the importance of transforming engineering and supply chain processes to remain competitive against global OEMs, particularly Chinese manufacturers [70][71] Question: Impact of tariffs and compliance credits - Management discussed ongoing negotiations with the administration to simplify tariffs and reduce liabilities, emphasizing the potential upside for the company [83][84] Question: Electrification initiatives and regional commitments - Management indicated a focus on partnerships for EVs and a streamlined product lineup to balance investments across different regions [99]

Group 1: Dividend Risks - Both Ford and UPS are at risk of cutting their dividends due to challenging financial conditions, with UPS planning to pay out about $5.5 billion in dividends in 2025 and Ford potentially using up to 89% of its free cash flow (FCF) on dividends in 2025 [4][6] - UPS aims to pay out approximately 50% of its earnings in dividends, while Ford targets 40% to 50% of its FCF [2][4] - The trading environment has deteriorated, leading both companies to suspend or not update their guidance, with UPS experiencing a 9% decline in average daily volumes in the second quarter [5][6] Group 2: Company Performance - Ford's transition from internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles to electric vehicles (EVs) is progressing slowly, with significant losses in its EV segment, reporting a loss of $5.1 billion in 2024 [10] - UPS is shifting its revenue mix from low-profitability business-to-consumer deliveries to higher-margin deliveries in small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) and healthcare, which is expected to improve its financial performance [11][12] - UPS has seen impressive growth in its SMB segment, increasing its share of U.S. volume from 27% in 2021 to 28.9% in 2024, with a goal of reaching 40% [13] Group 3: Strategic Outlook - UPS is investing in productivity-enhancing technologies, which are expected to lead to cost reductions and improved returns on assets [12] - Ford faces significant challenges in the EV market, particularly with competition from Tesla, while UPS is on a better strategic trajectory despite near-term headwinds [14]

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company is expected to report break-even quarterly earnings per share, indicating a 100% decline year-over-year, with revenues projected at $35.48 billion, reflecting an 11.1% decrease from the previous year [1]. Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised down by 8.7% over the last 30 days, indicating a collective reevaluation by analysts [2]. - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions, as empirical studies show a strong correlation between earnings estimate revisions and short-term stock performance [3]. Revenue Projections - Analysts project 'Revenues- Company excluding Ford Credit' to be $34.72 billion, a decrease of 13% from the year-ago quarter [5]. - 'Revenues- Ford Credit' is expected to reach $3.05 billion, showing a 5.2% increase year-over-year [5]. - 'Revenues- External Revenues- Ford Blue' is estimated at $18.21 billion, reflecting a 16.5% decline from the previous year [5]. - 'Revenues- Ford Pro' is forecasted at $16.41 billion, indicating an 8.8% decrease year-over-year [6]. - 'Revenues- External Revenues- Ford Model e' is projected at $809.82 million, representing a significant increase of 604.2% from the year-ago quarter [6]. Wholesale Units - 'Wholesale Units - Ford Blue' is expected to be 560.82 thousand, down from 626 thousand in the same quarter last year [6]. - 'Wholesale Units - Ford Pro' is projected at 354.08 thousand, compared to 409 thousand reported in the previous year [7]. - 'Wholesale Units - Ford Model e' is anticipated to reach 29.38 thousand, up from 10 thousand in the year-ago quarter [7]. Adjusted EBIT - 'Adjusted EBIT- Ford Credit' is estimated at $338.24 million, slightly up from $326 million in the previous year [8]. - 'Adjusted EBIT- Ford Blue' is projected at $239.79 million, a significant decrease from $905 million reported in the same quarter last year [8]. - 'Adjusted EBIT- Ford Pro' is expected to be $1.64 billion, down from $3.01 billion in the same quarter of the previous year [9]. Stock Performance - Over the past month, Ford Motor shares have recorded a return of +2.1%, while the Zacks S&P 500 composite has seen a -0.2% change [9].

Core Viewpoint - Ford Motor Company reported strong fourth-quarter earnings, surpassing estimates and showing year-over-year growth in revenues and adjusted earnings per share [2][3][4]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 2024 were 39 cents, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 34 cents and up from 29 cents in the previous year [2]. - Consolidated revenues for Q4 reached $48.2 billion, a 5% increase year over year, with total automotive revenues at approximately $44.9 billion, surpassing the Zacks estimate of $43.5 billion [2]. - The Ford Blue segment saw a 2% increase in wholesale volume to 774,000 units, with revenues rising 4% to $27.3 billion, exceeding expectations [3]. - The Ford Model e segment's wholesale volume increased by 10% to 37,000 units, but revenues declined 11% to $1.4 billion, although it still surpassed estimates due to higher average selling prices [4]. - The Ford Pro segment's wholesale volume grew 5% to 378,000 units, with revenues increasing 6% to $16.2 billion, though it missed expectations [5]. - Ford Credit's revenues were $3.27 billion, up 19% year over year, with pretax earnings of approximately $470 million, a 68% increase [6]. Financial Position - Ford reported an adjusted free cash flow of $700 million for the quarter, with cash and cash equivalents totaling $22.9 billion as of December 31, 2024 [7]. - Long-term debt, excluding Ford Credit, was $18.9 billion at the end of 2024 [7]. 2025 Guidance - For the full year 2025, Ford expects EBIT between $7 billion and $8.5 billion, with adjusted free cash flow projected at $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion [8]. - Capital spending is anticipated to be in the range of $8 billion to $8.5 billion, with EBIT from the Pro and Blue segments expected to be $7.5 billion to $8 billion and $3.5 billion to $4 billion, respectively [8]. - The Ford Model e unit is projected to incur a pre-tax loss between $5 billion and $5.5 billion [8]. Market Sentiment - Recent estimates for Ford have shown a downward trend, with a significant shift of -83% in consensus estimates [9][10]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating expectations for an in-line return in the coming months [12].