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瑞银拆解分析:苹果iPhone Fold成本较三星低4%,定价或下探至1800美元
Huan Qiu Wang Zi Xun· 2025-07-15 08:02
Core Insights - UBS's report indicates that Apple's first foldable phone, iPhone Fold, has a Bill of Materials (BoM) cost of $759, which is approximately 4% lower than Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold SE at $790 [1][2] - Apple has managed to reduce costs through optimization of key components such as memory, processor, and camera modules, despite using higher-cost materials for the casing and hinge [1][2] Cost Structure - The iPhone Fold features an aerospace-grade titanium alloy frame and a liquid metal hinge, which are 15%-20% more expensive than Samsung's aluminum and steel hinge, but assembly costs have been reduced by 8% through integrated precision manufacturing [2] - The device is expected to include 8GB LPDDR6 memory and 512GB UFS 4.0 storage, with unit costs 12% lower than Samsung's equivalent offerings due to long-term agreements with suppliers [2] - The A20 Bionic chip, based on TSMC's 3nm process, has a cost 9% lower than Samsung's Exynos 2500 due to architectural optimizations [2] - The camera module features a dual-camera design with 48MP, which is 18% cheaper than Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold SE's triple-camera setup [2] Pricing Strategy - UBS predicts that Apple will adopt a "high-end anchoring + flexible pricing" strategy, with the base model priced between $1800 and $2000, representing a 12%-25% premium over Samsung's Z Fold SE [3] - The high-end model is expected to be priced between $2200 and $2400, targeting the luxury electronics market [3] - If priced at $1800, the iPhone Fold could achieve a gross margin of 58%, which is significantly higher than the iPhone 16 series (approximately 45%-50%) and comparable to Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold series (55%-60%) [3] Production and Release Timeline - The initial production of the iPhone Fold is estimated to be between 10 million and 15 million units, accounting for 5%-7% of Apple's annual smartphone sales [3] - The iPhone Fold, potentially named iPhone Ultra Fold, has entered the New Product Introduction (NPI) phase at Foxconn and is expected to launch in the fall of 2026 alongside the iPhone 18 series [3]