Equity Research 21 January 2026 Thematic Investing Powering AI: Gas Turbines Could Make or Break AI Ambitions We explore the supply/demand dynamics of a gas turbine industry that, while historically prone to boom/bust cycles, will play a key role in meeting growing power needs. We track ~40 GW of capacity additions, but context is essential – demand goes well beyond data centers. Gas turbine demand isn't all about data centers. US gas-fired power additions hit their lowest level in 2024 (only ~2.6 GW) since ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus is on the **Global Capital Goods** industry, specifically the **data center** sector, which is experiencing significant growth in power demand and generation strategies [2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Power Generation Bottleneck**: Power availability is a critical bottleneck for data center development, influencing site selection and expansion strategies. Off-grid power generation is becoming increasingly important [2][4]. 2. **Data Center Pipeline Growth**: The US data center pipeline capacity has grown significantly, exceeding **245 GW** with monthly additions of **435 MW**. The top 15 developers account for **59%** of this capacity [3][10][11]. 3. **On-Site Power Generation**: There is a shift towards on-site power generation due to constraints in the US grid infrastructure. Gas accounts for approximately **50%** of planned capacity increases, followed by battery storage, solar, and nuclear [4][51]. 4. **Gas Turbines vs. Gas Engines**: With gas turbine lead times extending to **4-6 years**, gas engines are becoming a viable alternative for data center developers, despite their lower efficiency and higher costs [5][54][76]. 5. **Investment Recommendations**: Analysts recommend buying stocks in **Wartsila** and **Siemens Energy** due to favorable demand and pricing dynamics in the gas turbine market [6][76]. 6. **Long-Term Power Demand**: The demand for power generation is expected to grow significantly between **2026-2030**, driven by the expansion of data center capacity [3][13]. 7. **Regulatory Environment**: Proposed federal regulations may favor data centers with on-site power generation, potentially increasing electricity costs for those relying solely on grid connections [44][45]. Additional Important Insights 1. **Reliability and Redundancy**: Reliability is crucial for data center design, with most larger facilities classified as Tier III or IV, necessitating backup systems for critical infrastructure [22][23]. 2. **Shift in Data Center Locations**: There is a trend of data centers moving from urban to more remote locations, which may increase the demand for off-grid power generation solutions [30][34]. 3. **Intermittent Power Sources**: Renewable energy sources like solar and wind face challenges due to their intermittent nature, which complicates their integration into data center power strategies [40][58]. 4. **Fuel Cells and Alternative Technologies**: While fuel cells offer rapid deployment advantages, their high costs and limited operational history make them a niche solution compared to gas turbines and engines [98]. 5. **Market Dynamics**: The gas turbine market is expected to face supply constraints, leading to increased prices and longer lead times, which may benefit gas engine manufacturers in the short term [72][76]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and trends discussed in the conference call, highlighting the evolving landscape of power generation for data centers and the implications for investment strategies in the capital goods sector.