We are all familiar with the so-called "October Effect.† Investopedia describes it this way: "The October effect refers to the belief that stocks tend to decline during the month of October. It is considered to be more of a psychological expectation than an actual phenomenon, as most statistics contradict the theory.† It's an interesting phenomenon, to use their word. We come into the month looking for an increased potential for market crashes, and an increase in volatility vs. previous months. We exp ...

The price of gold has been on a spectacular run lately, hitting back-to-back record highs over the past two weeks and surging past the $4,300 per ounce mark on Oct. 17. Earlier in the session, gold was on track for its biggest weekly gain since September 2008, when the global market faced a financial crisis due to the collapse of Lehman Brothers (as reported by Reuters). However, by the end of Friday, gold saw a sharp 2% pullback, marking its biggest weekly loss in over two months. While some traders view t ...

Gold investors moved to take profits Tuesday, prompting a quick decline in the precious metal’s value. Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,137 per ounce on Wednesday, up 1.2% from Tuesday’s close of $4,087.70. Gold’s value declined 5.7% in trading on Oct. 21. The government shutdown, new tariff announcements, and ongoing trade tensions between the U.S. and China contributed to gold’s steeper trajectory since the middle of August. However, the government shutdown paused the weekly Commitments of Traders repo ...

The other day I was driving my mother from the airport, and I asked her what she thought about the current price of gold, which was hovering around $4,000 a Troy ounce. She said that when she got married (in the early 1960s), the price of gold in India was around Rupees (“Rs”) 120 per “Tola” – she said she remembered it well since her father said at the time it was quite expensive, having recently gone up a lot in price (for a history of gold in India see, for example, here), but still worth owning. A tola ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,160.10 per ounce on Wednesday, up 0.5% from Tuesday’s close of $4,138.70. Gold set a new record of $4,235 this morning, before retreating somewhat. Gold’s opening price has been above $4,000 for three consecutive days. President Trump again threatened China Tuesday in an ongoing dialogue that’s touched on rare earth minerals, shipbuilding, and now soybeans. Chinese importers have been steady buyers of U.S. soybeans for decades — until Beijing’s reciprocal tariffs made the ...

Core Insights - The rise in gold and silver prices is beginning to attract attention from the general public and financial advisors, with a notable increase in gold ownership among professional investors [1][3][5] Fund Manager Exposure - In 2023, 71% of financial advisors had 0-1% exposure to gold, but recent surveys indicate a decrease in the number of fund managers with no exposure, dropping from 39% [1][5] - The average fund manager currently reports only 2.4% exposure to gold, suggesting significant room for growth in allocations [5][6] Gold ETF Holdings - U.S. physical gold ETF holdings are increasing, currently amounting to $225 billion, which is relatively small compared to major tech companies like NVIDIA [7][9] - Central banks remain the primary buyers of gold, with a notable increase in their holdings since 2022, particularly after geopolitical events involving Russia [9][12][13] Investor Demand - Investors are just beginning to emerge as a significant source of gold demand, following a trend where central banks have driven the current bull market [14][13] Market Dynamics - Gold and silver have performed well despite a bull market in stocks, typically shining after market crashes when central banks increase monetary supply [15][16] - In the event of a stock market downturn, funds may rotate from high-risk sectors into precious metals, although initial sell-offs of gold and silver can occur during panic [16][17] - Historically, after initial declines, precious metals tend to outperform major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in the following years [18]

Core Insights - Gold prices have surged, surpassing $4,000 per ounce on October 6, with a year-to-date increase of 51%, significantly outpacing the S&P 500's 15.3% gain [1] - Over the past two years, gold has risen by 116%, compared to a 60% gain in the S&P 500, indicating strong demand for gold as an investment [2] Factors Driving Gold Prices - Central banks are diversifying their reserves by increasing gold holdings to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar, which is weakening against other currencies [3][4] - Retail investors are also contributing to the demand for gold, with increased purchases of gold ETFs and jewelry [6] - The technology sector is driving additional demand for gold due to its applications in high-performance semiconductors, particularly in AI [7] Investment Opportunities in Gold ETFs - Recommended gold ETFs include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU), which hold significant amounts of physical gold [10] - The combined net asset value of these ETFs exceeds $183 billion, highlighting the role of retail investors in the gold market [11] - Expense ratios for these ETFs are relatively low, with SPDR Gold Shares at 0.4% and iShares Gold Trust at 0.25%, making them attractive for investors seeking liquidity and security [12] Gold Mining ETFs - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has seen a remarkable 127% increase year-to-date, although it underperformed gold and the S&P 500 last year [13] - Investing in gold mining ETFs spreads risk across various companies and regions, with only 17.6% of assets in U.S. gold miners [15] - The VanEck Gold Miners ETF offers an annual dividend, which may appeal to investors looking for income [16] Long-term Outlook and Strategy - Given the strong demand from central banks and retail investors, gold prices may continue to rise in the long term [17] - Investors are advised to approach gold investments cautiously, considering their preferred method of investment (physical, digital, or mining) and to build positions gradually [18]

Core Insights - Gold is experiencing a significant surge in demand, with ETF sales reaching record levels as its price hit $4,000 per ounce [1] - The ongoing US government shutdown is contributing to investor uncertainty, leading to increased interest in gold and cryptocurrencies as alternative assets [2][3] - Historical performance data shows gold has outperformed equities and global bonds over the past 20 years, with predictions of a near $5,000 per ounce price by the end of 2026 [4] ETF Market Dynamics - In September, over $9 billion flowed into US gold ETFs, marking the highest monthly inflow ever recorded [3] - State Street's SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) was the largest beneficiary, attracting $3.5 billion in September, although it had higher net sales of $4.1 billion in August [3] Investment Strategies - Financial advisors are increasingly recommending gold allocations to clients, citing its performance during crises rather than solely as an inflation hedge [5] - There is a strategic shift towards gold for market protection rather than performance enhancement, reflecting a cautious investment approach [5]

Core Insights - Gold reached $4,000 an ounce for the first time, reflecting strong demand amid economic uncertainty and interest from retail investors [2][9] - Gold futures hit an all-time high of $4,014 an ounce, with a year-to-date gain of approximately 50%, outperforming most S&P 500 stocks [2] - The surge in gold prices is driven by concerns over a potential U.S. government shutdown and increased investment in physical gold ETFs [3][4] Investment Dynamics - Record inflows into gold ETFs totaled $17.3 billion last month, attributed to political tensions, options market activity, and a weaker U.S. dollar [5] - The "debasement trade" is a key factor, with retail investors purchasing gold as a hedge against rising federal debt and declining confidence in the U.S. dollar [5] - Central banks are also increasing their gold reserves, seeking stability during geopolitical and economic crises [5] Future Price Projections - Goldman Sachs forecasts gold prices to rise to $4,900 an ounce by the end of 2026, an increase from a previous estimate of $4,300 [6] - Analysts expect continued demand from central banks and Western ETF buyers to drive gold prices higher [7] - The potential for stock market turmoil could further support gold prices, especially during historically volatile periods like October [10] Market Relationships - Historical analysis indicates that gold's performance during stock market corrections is closely tied to the U.S. dollar's movements [10] - Despite the dollar being near its lowest levels in years, gold is expected to benefit from a flight to safety during equity sell-offs [10] - Analysts suggest monitoring support levels for gold, with key thresholds around $3,715 and $3,515 [11]

Core Insights - The price of gold has surpassed $4,000 for the first time, driven by a weakening U.S. dollar and persistent inflation [1][2] - Gold is up 50% year to date, reflecting its appeal as a hedge against inflation and economic uncertainty [1][2] Gold Price Dynamics - The U.S. dollar has decreased by 10% year to date, while inflation currently stands at 2.9%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's target of 2% [2] - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a protective measure for their portfolios amid concerns about inflation eroding purchasing power [2] Investor Behavior - There is a notable increase in gold purchases by banks and retail investors, with countries like China reducing their holdings in U.S. Treasurys due to geopolitical tensions [3] - Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, recommends that gold should constitute about 15% of investment portfolios, highlighting its role as a diversifier [4] Retail Demand - Retailers such as Costco and Walmart are experiencing high demand for gold bars, with Costco struggling to keep up with sales since entering the gold market in 2023 [5] - Gold bars listed at Costco were priced just under $2,000 in October 2023, rising to over $3,000 by May 2025, indicating significant price appreciation [6] Investment Returns - Investors who purchased gold bars at the initial sale have seen gains of 100%, while those who bought a year ago have experienced over 50% returns [7]