Core Insights - Gold is increasingly being viewed as a more favorable investment compared to bitcoin, with its price rising significantly while bitcoin has recently declined [1][3][7] Group 1: Gold's Performance - Gold's price has more than doubled over the last year, currently trading above $5,400, despite a recent profit-taking dip [2][5] - Analysts suggest that gold could reach prices between $8,000 to $8,500 if household gold holdings increase from 3% to 4.6% of overall portfolios [5][7] - Gold has outperformed bitcoin over the past five years, indicating a shift in investor preference towards the precious metal [3][7] Group 2: Bitcoin's Decline - Bitcoin has seen a significant drop, falling almost 7% to below $84,000, marking its lowest point since November [1][2] - There has been a noticeable outflow from bitcoin ETFs, contrasting with inflows into gold and silver ETFs, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment [4][6] - Retail investors are increasingly favoring precious metals over bitcoin, indicating a potential long-term trend [5][6]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $5,179 per troy ounce on Wednesday, up 1.1% from Tuesday’s closing price of $5,120.60. This was gold’s first open above $5,100 per ounce, and the yellow metal’s price then surged over $5,300 in early trading. Gold set new records after President Trump brushed off concerns about the U.S. dollar’s latest decline, describing the dollar as “great.” The U.S. Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) is down over 2% in the last five days and nearly 11% in the last year. Evolving U.S. foreign rela ...

Core Viewpoint - The comparison between SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) highlights GLDM's lower expenses and shallower historical drawdown, making it potentially more appealing for cost-conscious and risk-averse investors [1][9]. Cost & Size - IAU has an expense ratio of 0.25%, while GLDM has a lower expense ratio of 0.10% [3][4]. - As of January 9, 2026, IAU's one-year return is 67.2%, compared to GLDM's 66.2% [3]. - IAU has assets under management (AUM) of $72.9 billion, whereas GLDM has $28.0 billion [3][10]. Performance & Risk Comparison - Both IAU and GLDM have a maximum drawdown of -20.92% over five years [5]. - The growth of a $1,000 investment over five years is $2,414 for IAU and $2,427 for GLDM, indicating slightly better performance for GLDM [5]. Fund Structure - GLDM offers pure gold exposure with 100% of its portfolio aligned to gold holdings, without equities or alternative assets [6]. - IAU follows a similar structure, providing exposure to gold bullion without sector tilt or equity exposure [7]. Investment Implications - Both IAU and GLDM provide direct access to gold, but GLDM's lower expense ratio and smaller historical drawdown may attract more cost-conscious or risk-averse investors [9][10]. - The larger AUM of IAU may appeal to some investors, but GLDM's cost advantages suggest it may be the wiser choice for long-term savings [10].

Group 1: Market Outlook - Gold futures are projected to potentially reach $5,500 by 2026, while silver futures could hit $11,520 due to market volatility [1] - Continued central bank buying and private investor ETF flows are driving demand for gold and silver, with expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Fed [2][4] - Poland has added 150 tons of gold to its reserves, while India is reducing its US Treasury holdings in favor of gold investments [3] Group 2: Investment Trends - There is a multi-year increase in gold ETF holdings as both individuals and institutions view gold as a strong portfolio asset for diversification against inflation and geopolitical risks [4] - The traditional 60/40 portfolio strategy is being replaced by allocations to strategic commodities like gold, silver, and copper [4] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The average true range for gold is currently $95 per day, while silver is at $5 per day, indicating potential for significant sell-offs during market corrections [7] - There are multi-year supply deficits in metals, coupled with strong industrial and investment demand, creating a scenario where demand outpaces supply [7] - The market for platinum is experiencing new highs, driven by supply constraints from South Africa and Russia, which together account for a significant portion of global production [10][11]

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $4,767.50 per troy ounce on Wednesday, nearly even with Tuesday’s closing price of $4,765.80. In early trading, the price of gold rose more than 2% to surpass $4,800 per ounce for the first time. Ongoing tensions between the U.S. and several European countries over President Trump’s bid to purchase Greenland continue to drive the gold price higher. President Trump has threatened Denmark, Norway, Sweden, France, Germany, the U.K., the Netherlands, and Finland with 10% tariff ...

Core Viewpoint - The outlook for gold in 2026 is bullish, with forecasts from JPMorgan and Bank of America predicting prices could reach $5,000 per ounce by Q4, driven by a surge of over 75% in the past year due to increased ETF and central bank demand, alongside geopolitical and economic uncertainties [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold and mining ETFs are expected to benefit significantly from the anticipated record-breaking performance of gold in 2026 [2]. - Gold mining ETFs are projected to outperform physical gold in 2026, indicating a strong market for these investment vehicles [2]. - Global gold ETFs experienced six consecutive months of inflows last year, primarily from Asia, with JPMorgan predicting around 250 metric tons of inflows into ETFs in 2026 [2]. Group 2: Investment Shifts - Investors are expected to shift from legacy gold ETFs to lower-cost "mini" and "micro" funds following the record high gold prices in late 2025, which surpassed $4,500 per ounce [2]. - The APAC region is anticipated to see sustained inflows as gold ownership increases in markets like India and China, with investors viewing gold as a risk hedge [2]. Group 3: Notable ETFs - SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) has an expense ratio of 0.1% and $25.3 billion in assets, appealing to cost-conscious investors [2]. - abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (SGOL) has a higher expense ratio of 0.17% but focuses on responsible environmental, social, and governance practices, with $6.24 billion in assets [2]. - VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) has an expense ratio of 0.51% and $27.8 billion in assets, showing high performance and growth in 2025 [2]. - VanEck Junior Gold Miners (GDXJ) targets small and early-stage miners with an expense ratio of 0.51% and $10 billion in assets [2]. - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) is the second-largest physical gold ETF with $71 billion in assets and an expense ratio of 0.25% [2].

Group 1: Gold Price Movement - Gold futures opened at $4,594.30 per troy ounce, down 0.1% from the previous closing price of $4,599.10, but later rose 1.2% to an all-time high of $4,647.60 [1][2] - Gold's one-year gain was reported at 74.5% as of December 29, with recent weekly, monthly, and yearly changes showing increases of 3.2%, 7.4%, and 71.8% respectively [5][8] Group 2: Political Influence on Gold Prices - Concerns regarding the Federal Reserve's independence from political pressure have contributed to the recent surge in gold prices, particularly following the Trump administration's actions against Fed Chair Jerome Powell [2][4] - A coalition of 10 central bank and financial institution leaders issued a statement supporting Powell, emphasizing the importance of central bank independence for economic stability [3] Group 3: Investment Options in Gold - Various methods to invest in gold include physical gold, gold mining stocks, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages [6][9] - Physical gold is tangible and easily accessible, while gold mining stocks can be volatile due to their dependence on gold prices and geopolitical risks [13][17] - Gold ETFs track the price of gold and offer greater liquidity, but they come with fund fees that can dilute returns [19][23] - Gold futures allow for leverage and convenience but carry higher risks and complexity [21][24]

Core Insights - Gold futures opened at $4,505.40 per troy ounce, marking a 0.2% increase from the previous day's closing price of $4,496.10, with early trading showing a decline possibly due to profit-taking by investors [1] - The price of gold has seen significant movement, primarily trading in the $4,300s before rising following U.S. military actions in Venezuela, and this is the first time it has opened above $4,500 since December 26 [1] - Economic data releases this week, including the ADP employment report and U.S. trade deficit, are expected to influence gold traders' expectations regarding interest rate actions in 2026, as falling interest rates typically benefit gold [2] Current Price Analysis - The current opening price of gold futures reflects a 0.2% increase from the previous day, with a one-week gain of 4%, a one-month gain of 7.2%, and a one-year gain of 69.8% [3][6] Investment Options - Various methods to invest in gold include physical gold, gold mining stocks, gold ETFs, and gold futures, each with distinct advantages and disadvantages [7][10][17][19] - Physical gold is tangible and easily accessible, while gold mining stocks can be volatile due to their dependence on gold prices and geopolitical risks [10][16] - Gold ETFs provide liquidity and are tied directly to gold prices, but they come with fund fees that can dilute returns [18][21] Performance Metrics - Gold's one-year gain as of December 29 was 74.5%, indicating strong performance over the past year [3] - The price of gold has shown a steady upward trend, with significant increases noted over the past week, month, and year [20]

Core Insights - The U.S. ETF market experienced record inflows of nearly $1.5 trillion in 2025, surpassing the previous record of $1.12 trillion in 2024 [1][2] - December 2025 saw a particularly strong performance with $225.3 billion in inflows, setting a new monthly record [2] ETF Market Overview - Total assets under management for U.S.-listed ETFs reached $13.5 trillion [3] - U.S. equity ETFs led inflows with over $650 billion, while international equity ETFs attracted $270 billion, benefiting from strong overseas stock performance [4] - The FTSE Global All Cap ex US Index returned 32%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 18% return [4] Economic Factors - A weaker dollar, which declined over 9%, contributed to enhanced returns alongside improved global equity sentiment [5] - U.S. fixed income ETFs saw inflows of $330.6 billion, supported by three rate cuts from the Federal Reserve and solid bond market returns [6] - The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index gained 7.3%, marking its best performance since 2020 [6] Inflows by Asset Class - Commodity ETFs received $56.8 billion, with gold ETFs accounting for $47.6 billion of that total [7] - Currency ETFs attracted $38.7 billion, including $33.5 billion into U.S.-listed spot crypto ETFs [7] - International fixed income ETFs pulled in $100.5 billion, while alternatives ETFs gathered $25 billion [7] Issuer Performance - Vanguard led the issuer rankings with $420.8 billion in inflows, followed by iShares with $373 billion [8] - Other notable issuers included SPDR ($86.1 billion), Invesco ($69.9 billion), JPMorgan ($69.4 billion), and Capital Group ($47.2 billion) [8] - Direxion experienced the largest outflows at $11 billion, with Pacer and Grayscale also seeing significant losses [8]

Silver ETFs - Silver ETFs gained attention in 2025 due to significant price increases in India, driven by local shortages that inflated prices above global benchmarks [1][2] - The supply deficit in the physical silver market is expected to persist, potentially impacting new investments in Silver ETFs [1] - The strong performance of silver is attributed to its dual role as a precious metal and an industrial commodity, with high industrial demand contributing to price increases [2] Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs reached new all-time highs in 2025, with returns up to 78.76%, led by Axis Gold ETF [5] - Investors turned to gold as a hedge against uncertainty and equity volatility, appreciating the liquidity and transparency of gold ETFs [4] - The outlook for gold in 2026 is influenced by real yields, the US dollar, and central bank demand, with forecasts suggesting prices could stabilize around $4,500–$5,000 [6] Consumption Funds - Consumption funds attracted interest following the restructuring of the goods and services tax (GST) in September 2025, which aimed to improve household disposable incomes [7][8] - Despite the potential for recovery, consumption funds have faced losses since the implementation of GST 2.0, with significant declines observed in specific funds [9] - A gradual recovery in consumption growth is anticipated in 2026, driven by improved consumer confidence and discretionary spending [10] International Funds - International funds outperformed domestic funds in 2025, with average returns of 27.06%, bolstered by the depreciation of the Indian rupee [11][12] - Notable performances included the NASDAQ 100 and S&P 500, which delivered returns of 23.18% and 20.60%, respectively [12][23] - The recommendation for investors is to allocate 10–20% to international funds, focusing primarily on US markets [14] Auto Sector Funds - Auto sector funds experienced significant growth in 2025, supported by strong domestic consumption and lower input costs [15] - Average returns for auto sector funds were 17.15% in the current calendar year, although future performance may be more selective due to higher valuations [16][17] - The sector is expected to be suitable for tactical allocations rather than core holdings in 2026 [17] Technology Sector Funds - Technology sector funds were among the worst performers in 2025, with the Nifty IT index declining by 9% year-to-date [18][20] - Factors impacting performance included delayed tech projects due to macroeconomic uncertainties and policy issues, leading to a negative average return of 3.10% for tech funds [19][20] - There is cautious optimism for a rebound in the tech sector as demand improves and AI opportunities become clearer, although recovery is expected to be gradual [21][22]