Summary of Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Henlius Biotech (2696.HK) - **Industry**: Biopharmaceuticals, focusing on innovative therapies and biosimilars - **Market Cap**: HK$35.9 billion / $4.6 billion [7] Key Points Strategic Transition - Henlius is evolving from a biosimilar company to a global innovative biopharma player, supported by: 1. An expanding pipeline led by HLX43, a potential best-in-class PD-L1 ADC for global pivotal studies [1][2] 2. A biosimilar franchise with upcoming product launches that could generate significant cash flow for R&D [1] 3. Proven capabilities in clinical operations, regulatory affairs, and biomanufacturing [1] Pipeline and Valuation - **HLX43**: - Estimated to generate risk-adjusted sales of **US$3.8 billion** by **2036**, contributing approximately **54%** to the company's valuation [2][21] - Significant opportunity in **2L EGFRwt non-squamous NSCLC** based on clinical readouts [2] - Expected to enter pivotal studies for various cancers, including cervical and colorectal [2] - **Valuation**: - Target price set at **HK$100.70**, indicating a **52.3% upside** based on a **10% discount rate** and **3% terminal growth rate** [3][26] - Risks include potential failure to realize global value through partnerships, clinical development risks, and increasing competition [3][31] Financial Projections - **Revenue Forecast**: - Projected revenues for 2024: **Rmb 5,724.4 million**, increasing to **Rmb 9,437.1 million** by 2026 [7][17] - EBITDA expected to rise from **Rmb 1,227.9 million** in 2024 to **Rmb 3,931.7 million** in 2026 [7][17] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - EPS forecasted to be **Rmb 1.51** in 2024, peaking at **Rmb 5.43** in 2026 before declining [7][17] Product Portfolio - **ADC Portfolio**: - HLX43 is the cornerstone asset with potential in various solid tumors [19][20] - Other assets include HLX10 (PD-1) and HLX22 (HER2), with ongoing clinical trials and approvals [19][20] - **Biosimilar Franchise**: - Established portfolio with global partnerships, expected to generate stable cash flow [21][22] - Key candidates include HLX15 (daratumumab), projected to contribute significantly to revenue [21] Market Position and Competitive Landscape - **Market Opportunity**: - HLX43 positioned as a competitive option in the PD-L1 ADC space, with a projected **US$3.8 billion** peak sales potential [32][38] - The US market is expected to contribute **50%** of global sales, with significant addressable patient populations [35][38] Risks and Challenges - Key risks include: 1. Failure to fully realize pipeline drug values through partnerships [3][31] 2. Clinical development risks associated with early-stage products [3][31] 3. Increasing competition in late-line solid tumors [3][31] 4. Challenges in attracting and retaining talent [3][31] Conclusion - Henlius Biotech is strategically positioned for growth with a robust pipeline and a strong focus on innovative therapies. The company is expected to leverage its biosimilar franchise to support its transition into a global biopharma player, despite facing several market and operational risks.