Company Overview - Conagra Brands is a packaged food company with well-known brands such as Slim Jim, Healthy Choice, and Duncan Hines, but it lacks true category leaders [2] - The company is currently facing challenges, as indicated by a significant decline in stock price, down over 35% from its 52-week highs [1] Financial Performance - In the fiscal second quarter of 2026, Conagra's overall sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic sales down 3%, reflecting broader struggles in the consumer staples sector [3] - The company reported a one-time impairment charge of $0.94 per share, resulting in a loss of $1.39 per share [3][4] - The impairment charge suggests that the company's brands are not valued as highly as previously believed, impacting shareholders by reducing book value per share [4] Dividend Analysis - Conagra's current dividend yield stands at 8.2%, significantly higher than the average yield of 2.8% for consumer staples stocks [1][8] - The quarterly dividend of $0.35 per share was covered by adjusted earnings in the fiscal second quarter, but the dividend payout ratio has exceeded 100% for a concerning period [5][7] - The board has previously reduced dividends when payout ratios spiked, and the lack of dividend increases in recent years raises concerns about sustainability [7] Market Position and Comparison - The overall business position of Conagra is not among the best in the consumer staples sector, and it may struggle to improve given its brand portfolio [5] - For investors seeking reliable dividends, Conagra may not be the best option, especially when compared to better-positioned companies like PepsiCo, which has shown revenue growth and a more reliable dividend history [9][10]

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) is experiencing a difficult environment characterized by a slowdown in consumer spending, elevated inflation, and tariffs, leading to a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell) and nearing a 5-year low [1] Financial Performance - In the second quarter of fiscal 2026, Conagra reported earnings of $0.45, beating the Zacks Consensus of $0.44, marking the second consecutive earnings beat [2] - Net sales decreased by 6.8%, with organic net sales down by 3.0%, although the company is optimistic about a return to net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year [3] Guidance and Inflation - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting organic net sales to change by a loss of 1% to 1% compared to fiscal 2025, with earnings projected between $1.70 and $1.85 [4] - The company anticipates continued elevated costs of goods sold inflation, with total cost of goods inflation expected to reach 7% in fiscal 2026, influenced by U.S. tariffs increasing costs by 3% before mitigations [5] Analyst Revisions - Analysts have cut fiscal 2026 earnings estimates, with the Zacks Consensus falling to $1.72 from $1.75, indicating a 25.2% decline in earnings [6] - For fiscal 2027, estimates were also reduced, with the Zacks Consensus dropping to $1.79 from $1.86, reflecting a projected earnings growth of 4.2% [7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Conagra's shares have declined significantly over the past year, now near 5-year lows [10] - The company trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 9.6, suggesting it may be undervalued [12] Dividend Information - Conagra pays a dividend of $1.40 per share, yielding 8.5%, with dividends paid in the first half of fiscal 2026 remaining flat year over year at $335 million [13]

Core Insights - The U.S. frozen food market is valued at $93.5 billion and is being shaped by four key themes: protein-packed meals, restaurant-inspired favorites, family-style solutions, and all-day breakfast [1][2] Group 1: Emerging Trends - Protein remains the most influential nutrition attribute, with high-protein frozen foods generating $12 billion annually and growing at double-digit volume rates [5] - "Takeout-style" frozen foods total $14.3 billion in annual sales, driven by younger generations and families seeking restaurant-quality taste and convenience [5] - Multi-serve meals and frozen sides account for approximately $12 billion in sales, with value-size frozen products making up over 40% of frozen aisle sales [5] Group 2: Consumer Behavior - Consumers are increasingly relying on frozen foods to meet daily protein needs, with frozen meals averaging high protein levels per serving [5] - The trend of recreating restaurant experiences at home is growing, particularly as dining out becomes more expensive [5] - Breakfast items are being consumed throughout the day, with high-protein, ready-to-heat formats gaining popularity among Gen Z and Millennials [5]

Core Viewpoint - Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE:CAG) is currently facing challenges, with a recent price target cut by UBS and a decline in net sales reported for fiscal Q2 2026 [1][2]. Financial Performance - For fiscal Q2 2026, Conagra reported a net sales drop of 6.8%, with organic net sales decreasing by 3.0% [2]. - The reported diluted net loss per share was $1.39, primarily due to non-cash goodwill and brand impairment charges, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS) stood at $0.45 [3]. - The operating margin for the quarter was reported at 20.1%, with an adjusted operating margin of 11.3% [2]. Sales Dynamics - The decline in organic net sales was attributed to flat price/mix and a 3.0% decrease in volume, alongside a headwind of approximately 100 basis points from changes in retailer purchasing activity [4]. - Price/mix was further impacted by a 60 basis point headwind related to changes in estimates for fiscal 2025's trade expense accrual and an unfavorable product mix [5]. Guidance and Outlook - Conagra reaffirmed its fiscal 2026 guidance, expecting an adjusted operating margin between approximately 11.0% and 11.5%, and adjusted EPS between $1.70 and $1.85 [5]. Company Overview - Conagra Brands operates in three segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, and International, with a brand portfolio that includes Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, Marie Callender's, Reddi-wip, and BOOMCHICKAPOP [6].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects organic net sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, with positive momentum observed in December [11][12] - Operating profit and margin performance in the first half of the year has been good, with favorable tariff timing and chicken inflation, although there are offsets with beef and pork [21][22] - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year, with core inflation slightly above 4% and gross tariff inflation around 3% [42][44] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The frozen and snacks segments are identified as growth domains, with snacks already showing robust growth and frozen aiming to reclaim market share lost due to previous supply constraints [31][32] - The company is focusing on productivity improvements, with productivity running at about 5% [52] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a return to growth in the snacks category, benefiting from a bounce back in convenience stores [31] - Frozen single-serve meals market share is close to 53%, indicating strong recovery and growth potential [32] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing Project Catalyst, which focuses on re-engineering core business processes using technology, particularly AI, to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [25][26] - The company is committed to margin expansion, particularly in the frozen segment, through productivity improvements and supply chain resiliency investments [52] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges the volatility in the operating environment and has guided to a wider range for EPS to navigate uncertainties [23][82] - The company is optimistic about the second half of the fiscal year, expecting strong promotional activity and improved market conditions [85] Other Important Information - The company has completed the baked chicken facility, which is expected to enhance production efficiency and margin [100] - An impairment charge was taken due to a sustained decline in stock price, which required a reassessment of goodwill and brand value [102][103] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic sales growth in Q3 - Management expects positive organic net sales growth in the second half, with momentum building in December [11][12] Question: Clarification on annual outlook and impact of Ardent - Management feels confident in offsetting the shortfall from Ardent and maintaining EPS guidance [22][23] Question: Insights on Project Catalyst and cost savings - Project Catalyst aims to automate business processes for improved efficiency, with expected returns on investment [25][26] Question: Consumption trends and growth outlook for fiscal 2027 - Management sees potential for growth in frozen and snacks, with strong marketing plans in place [31][34] Question: Impact of competitors' price cuts - The company has not rolled back prices to move volume but has maintained pricing to support promotional activities [40][41] Question: Inflation guidance and its components - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7%, with some favorable trends in chicken but increased costs in beef and pork [42][44] Question: AMP spending and consumer value-seeking behavior - The company will emphasize relative value in advertising to attract consumers [74][75] Question: Weather impact on sales - Management noted that colder weather has positively affected sales trends in the canned food segment [79][80] Question: EPS range and uncertainties - Management indicated that the EPS range remains wide due to ongoing uncertainties in the market [82][83] Question: Portfolio management and M&A strategy - The company is open to reshaping its portfolio for value creation but is currently focused on debt reduction [95] Question: Completion of the baked chicken facility and margin improvement - The transition to in-house production is expected to enhance margins, with the project on track [100][101]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company expects organic net sales growth in the second half of fiscal 2026, driven by improved shipment flows and easier comparisons in the frozen segment [9][10] - Operating profit and margin performance in the first half of the year were strong, with favorable tariff timing and productivity programs contributing positively [18][21] - The company maintains a total gross inflation guidance of 7% for the year, with core inflation slightly above 4% and tariff inflation around 3% [41][42] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The frozen and snacks segments are identified as key growth areas, with snacks already showing robust growth and frozen aiming to reclaim market share lost during supply constraints [28][30] - The company is focusing on high-quality promotional activities in the frozen segment, which were limited in the previous year due to supply issues [30][31] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has seen a return to growth in the snacks segment, benefiting from increased convenience store traffic [28] - The frozen segment's market share is recovering, with single-serve meals approaching a 53% market share, indicating strong competitive positioning [30] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is implementing Project Catalyst, aimed at re-engineering core business processes using technology and AI to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [23][24] - The focus remains on debt reduction and evaluating portfolio opportunities, including potential divestitures and inbounds, to create shareholder value [92] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving positive organic sales growth in the second half of the fiscal year, despite a volatile environment [21][22] - The company is cautious about predicting inflation trends but anticipates a normalization in protein prices, which have been a significant cost driver [88][89] Other Important Information - The company completed a significant impairment charge due to a sustained decline in stock price, necessitating a reassessment of goodwill and brand values [100][101] - The baked chicken facility is now complete, with plans to repatriate production to improve margins [96][99] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for organic sales growth in Q3 - Management expects positive organic net sales growth in the second half, with improved shipment flows and promotional activities [9][10] Question: Impact of competitors' price cuts - The company has not rolled back prices to move volume but has maintained pricing to support promotional activities [37][38] Question: Inflation guidance and its components - The company maintains a gross inflation guidance of 7%, with core inflation slightly above 4% and tariff inflation around 3% [41][42] Question: AMP spending and its impact - Increased AMP spending will emphasize relative value in marketing, aiming to attract value-seeking consumers [72][73] Question: Trends in frozen and refrigerated segments - Management anticipates a strong second half for frozen products, with market shares recovering and promotional activities ramping up [83][84] Question: Portfolio management and potential M&A - The company is open to reshaping its portfolio for value creation but is currently focused on debt reduction [92] Question: Completion of the baked chicken facility - The facility is complete, and production will transition back in-house, which is expected to improve margins [96][99]

Company Overview - Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) has a market capitalization of $8.5 billion and is a leading consumer packaged foods company based in Chicago, Illinois, with a diverse portfolio of over 70 well-known brands [1] - The company's operations span various channels including grocery, snacks, frozen, refrigerated, international, and foodservice, serving both retail and commercial customers [1] Market Position - CAG is classified as a mid-cap stock, fitting the category of companies valued between $2 billion and $10 billion [2] - The company is enhancing its market presence through brand modernization and product innovation, focusing on refreshing legacy franchises and introducing trend-driven offerings [2] - This balanced approach across value and premium segments, supported by a robust distribution network, allows Conagra to reach a broad and diverse consumer base [2] Stock Performance - Shares of Conagra have decreased by 37.8% from their 52-week high of $28.51 and have declined 7.4% over the past three months, underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has rallied by 3.7% in the same period [3] - Over the past 52 weeks, Conagra's shares have plunged 36.8%, contrasting sharply with the S&P 500's gain of 12.9% [4] - The stock has also slid 20.3% over the past six months, underperforming the S&P 500's decline of 12.8% [4] Technical Analysis - The stock continues to show downside pressure, having traded below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages for most of the past year [5] Fundamental Challenges - Conagra has underperformed the broader market due to weakening fundamentals, with declining sales volumes indicating weaker consumer demand and limited pricing power in a competitive staples market [6] - Analysts expect revenue to contract, raising concerns that newer product launches are not sufficiently strong to reaccelerate growth [6] - Past growth initiatives have yielded modest returns on invested capital, leading to doubts about capital efficiency and long-term value creation [6]

Core Insights - Thompson, Siegel, and Walmsley (TSW) has increased its stake in Conagra Brands, making it the 7th-largest holding in their portfolio, with a total position of 5,269,532 shares valued at $96.48 million as of the end of the third quarter [1][2]. Company Overview - Conagra Brands is a leading North American packaged foods company with a diversified product lineup and strong brand portfolio [6]. - The company reported a trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue of $11.45 billion and a net income of $850.10 million, with a dividend yield of 8.13% [4]. Recent Performance - As of December 1, 2025, Conagra Brands shares were priced at $17.22, reflecting a 33% decline over the prior year and underperforming the S&P 500 by 49 percentage points [3]. - The stock is currently trading at 0.7 times sales, the lowest since 2015, and at 7 times free cash flow, close to its lowest in the last two decades [11]. Investment Rationale - TSW's investment in Conagra aligns with a value investing strategy, as the company is seen as stable despite declining sales growth rates and challenges from GLP-1 medicines impacting food companies [10]. - The company holds $7.5 billion in long-term debt against a market capitalization of $8.2 billion, necessitating continued debt repayment to ensure the safety of its high-yield dividend and overall company longevity [12]. Product Portfolio - Conagra offers a broad portfolio of branded packaged foods, including frozen meals, snacks, and shelf-stable grocery products under well-known brands such as Birds Eye, Duncan Hines, Healthy Choice, and Slim Jim [9]. - The company generates revenue primarily through the manufacturing and distribution of consumer food products across various channels, leveraging scale and brand recognition [9].

Core Insights - Conagra Brands, a 105-year-old company with over 20 national food brands, is projected to achieve more than $11.6 billion in sales this year while modernizing its portfolio for future growth [1] - The company's stock has declined 37% year-to-date, making it one of the worst performers in the S&P 500, which has resulted in an increased dividend yield of 8% [2] - Conagra has a trailing payout ratio of 78% and has increased its dividend for the past six years, indicating a commitment to returning value to shareholders [7] Conagra Brands - Conagra is focusing on modernizing its product offerings to drive future growth [1] - The company has experienced a significant stock decline, which has led to a high dividend yield, attracting value investors [2] - The dividend payments from Conagra are projected to grow, with historical growth rates averaging 6.3% annually over the past five years [3] - The current dividend yield of Conagra is significantly higher than the S&P 500 average of 1.2% [5] - Conagra's price-to-earnings (P/E) and price-to-sales (P/S) ratios are near 10-year lows, suggesting potential value [7] United Parcel Service (UPS) - UPS has also faced a challenging year, with a 28% decline in stock price, resulting in a dividend yield of almost 7% [8] - The company has maintained or increased its dividend annually since going public in 1999, reflecting its financial strength [9] - UPS's dividend payout ratio is currently at 91%, but it is expected to decrease as earnings per share (EPS) are projected to grow by 4% and 11% in 2026 and 2027, respectively [10] Pfizer - Pfizer's stock has seen a modest decline of 5% year-to-date, with a current dividend yield of 6.9%, the highest in the healthcare sector [11] - The company has a 98% dividend payout ratio, which is projected to decline to 75% by 2026, indicating potential for sustainable dividends [12] - Pfizer has a strong track record of dividend increases over the past 16 years, supported by its balance sheet strength [12] Verizon - Verizon offers a dividend yield of 6.7%, making it one of the top dividend payers in the S&P 500 [13] - The company has a commitment to returning value to shareholders, with a 21-year track record of annual dividend increases [14] - Verizon's current P/E ratio is less than 9 times earnings for the next 12 months, indicating potential undervaluation [15]

Core Viewpoint - Conagra Brands, Inc. is facing significant stock underperformance despite a strong market position and positive quarterly results, with ongoing challenges from inflation and tariffs impacting future earnings expectations [1][2][4]. Company Overview - Conagra Brands has a market capitalization of $8.2 billion and operates in the North American packaged foods sector with a diverse brand portfolio including Birds Eye, Healthy Choice, Slim Jim, Reddi-wip, and Marie Callender's [1]. - The company operates across four segments: Grocery & Snacks, Refrigerated & Frozen, International, and Foodservice, focusing on innovative food products that cater to changing consumer preferences [1]. Stock Performance - Over the past 52 weeks, Conagra's stock has decreased by 41.1%, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 Index, which has increased by 18.5% during the same period [2]. - Year-to-date, the stock is down 38.3%, while the S&P 500 has risen by 15.1% [2]. Recent Financial Results - On October 1, Conagra reported Q1 2026 revenue of $2.63 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.39, exceeding expectations [4]. - The company has maintained its annual forecasts despite facing inflation and tariff pressures, indicating confidence in its pricing actions and cost-saving initiatives to offset rising costs [4]. Earnings Expectations - For the fiscal year ending in May 2026, analysts project a 23.5% year-over-year decrease in adjusted EPS to $1.76 [5]. - Conagra's earnings surprise history is mixed, with two beats and two misses in the last four quarters [5]. Analyst Ratings - Among 17 analysts covering Conagra, the consensus rating is a "Hold," with two "Strong Buy," 13 "Holds," one "Moderate Sell," and one "Strong Sell" [5]. - Morgan Stanley has set a price target of $21, with a mean price target of $20.53 indicating a nearly 20% premium to current levels, while the highest target of $27 suggests a potential upside of 57.8% [6].