Core Insights - Carrier Global (CARR) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 results on October 28, with expectations of adjusted EPS around $0.80 and sales near $6 billion, indicating mid-single-digit organic growth year-over-year [2][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for third-quarter earnings is currently at 55 cents per share, reflecting a 14% decrease over the past 30 days and a year-over-year decline of 33.73% [2][3] - Revenue estimates stand at $5.53 billion, suggesting a 7.62% year-over-year decline [3] Performance Influencers - Strong demand in the Heating, Ventilating, and Air Conditioning (HVAC) sector and aftermarket services is anticipated to drive revenue growth in Q3 [4] - The integration of Viessmann Climate Solutions is expected to enhance heat pump volumes and expand sustainable energy solutions [5] - Aftermarket services have been experiencing double-digit growth, likely continuing in the upcoming quarter [5] - Currency movements are projected to provide a $200 million year-over-year benefit from foreign currency translation, alongside another $200 million from tariff-related pricing adjustments [6] Challenges - Declining residential sales in the Americas due to weaker consumer demand and high inventory levels, as well as ongoing softness in residential sales in China, are expected to challenge performance [7] - Unfavorable product and regional mix in Europe, along with tariff-related margin pressures, may further impact quarterly results [7] Earnings Outlook - The current Earnings ESP for Carrier Global is +1.72%, but it holds a Zacks Rank of 5 (Strong Sell), indicating lower odds of an earnings beat [8]

Boston's public housing agency is installing window heat pumps that can cut heating costs and emissions https://t.co/eAKvYxotty ...

Summary of Lennox International (LII) FY Conference Call - May 06, 2025 Company Overview - **Company**: Lennox International (LII) - **Event**: Oppenheimer's 20th Annual Industrial Growth Conference - **Speakers**: CEO Alok Mascarra, CFO Michael Krenser Key Industry Insights - **Transformation Focus**: 2025 is viewed as a transition year from recovery to growth, emphasizing four key pillars: digital customer experience, Samsung joint venture, increasing parts attachment rate, and growing emergency replacement in the commercial business [2][3][4] - **Market Share**: Currently, Lennox holds a low single-digit market share in the ductless product category, which is now 10% of the market [5][6] - **Emergency Replacement**: Successful pilots have led to broader rollouts, with expectations of significant revenue growth in the coming years [6][9] - **Digital Customer Experience**: Achieved record market share in residential by improving fulfillment rates and digital experiences, with further investments planned [6][7][8] Financial Performance and Projections - **2025 Volume Decline**: Projected mid-single-digit volume decline for 2025 due to economic slowdown, but long-term growth of 4% to 6% CAGR in residential unit growth is expected [29][30][31] - **Pricing Strategy**: Price increases have been implemented to counteract tariff impacts, with retention rates being high for the first increase [46][58] - **Growth Drivers for 2026**: Anticipated growth from no pre-buy headwinds, improved efficiencies, and a full year of new product offerings [69][70][72] Strategic Initiatives - **Samsung Joint Venture**: Seen as a significant opportunity for market share gain, especially against competitors from China [78][79] - **Distribution Network Investments**: Focus on enhancing distribution infrastructure with shorter payback periods compared to manufacturing investments [92][93] - **M&A Strategy**: Interest in acquiring services and technology-related companies, although the current market is described as "frozen" due to valuation disagreements [94][95][97] Additional Considerations - **Succession Planning**: New leadership in Home Comfort Solutions with Sarah Martin, who brings experience from Honeywell [23][24] - **Supply Chain Dynamics**: Ongoing adjustments to supply chains in response to tariffs and market conditions, with a focus on maintaining flexibility [52][56] - **Market Trends**: Increasing demand for air conditioning due to climate changes and population shifts towards warmer regions [33][34] Conclusion - **Outlook**: Despite short-term challenges, Lennox International remains optimistic about long-term growth driven by strategic initiatives, market demand, and operational improvements [72][75][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lennox achieved record revenue exceeding $5 billion for the first time, with adjusted segment profit surpassing $1 billion [5][6] - Adjusted earnings per share reached $5.60 for Q4 and $22.58 for the full year, with core revenue growing 22% in Q4 and 13% for the full year [6][7] - Adjusted segment margin expanded by 250 basis points in Q4 and 150 basis points for the full year, reaching 19.4% [6][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Home Comfort Solutions segment reported 25% revenue growth and 67% segment profit growth, with sales volume increasing by 21% [12][13] - Building Climate Solutions segment experienced 17% revenue growth, with organic sales volume increasing by 14% [14][15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted a significant impact from the pre-purchase of R-410A equipment, estimated to have positively affected revenue by $125 million [12][30] - The transition to low GWP refrigerants is expected to contribute to future revenue growth, with a projected 4% increase from new product introductions [18][19] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is transitioning from a recovery and investment phase to a growth acceleration phase, focusing on disciplined investments while prioritizing growth [21][24] - Strategic investments in digital customer experience and expanded product offerings are aimed at capitalizing on growing demand for energy-efficient solutions [22][24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in long-term growth, anticipating revenue targets of $5.4 billion to $6 billion by 2026, despite headwinds from the 2024 pre-buy [25][26] - The company is closely monitoring market uncertainties, including interest rates and consumer confidence, which could impact future performance [56][57] Other Important Information - The company reported a free cash flow conversion rate of 97%, with capital expenditures expected to exceed depreciation by approximately $65 million [17][19] - The integration of the AES acquisition is ahead of schedule, contributing positively to the company's strategic M&A pipeline [9][10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Comments on the pre-buy impact and its implications for Q1 - Management acknowledged a $125 million pre-buy impact, which will create a headwind for Q1 revenue [30][31] Question: Flat volume outlook for the Home Comfort Solutions segment - Management cited market uncertainties, including low existing home sales and high mortgage rates, as reasons for a conservative volume outlook [32][34] Question: Guidance on incremental margins and inflation assumptions - Management indicated that inflation is expected to increase costs by approximately 3%, while maintaining a cautious approach to revenue guidance [39][41] Question: Revenue outlook for the Building Climate Solutions segment - Management expressed confidence in the health of the markets served, with expectations for mid-single-digit volume growth [46][48] Question: Insights on the new commercial facility in Mexico - Management indicated that the new facility is expected to contribute to volume growth, particularly in the second half of the year [82][84] Question: Inflationary pressures and their impact on costs - Management noted higher inflation in SG&A costs, particularly in healthcare and wages, while remaining vigilant about potential tariff impacts [91][92] Question: New construction versus replacement demand within Home Comfort Solutions - Management expects new construction to remain flattish, driven primarily by interest rates [108][109] Question: Margin dynamics by segment - Management indicated that margins are expected to be flat overall, with BCS seeing potential expansion in the second half of the year [110][111]