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easyJet Share Price: Long-Term Value Amid Short-Term Turbulence
Forbes· 2025-08-01 06:15
Core Viewpoint - easyJet's share price has declined following a solid Q3 update due to a less optimistic near-term outlook, but there are indications that the shares may recover [2][6]. Financial Performance - Passenger revenue increased by 9.7% to £1.76 billion, ancillary revenue rose by 5.6% to £732 million, and Holidays revenue surged by 27.4% to £428 million, leading to a total group revenue growth of 10.9% to £2.92 billion [3]. - The airline's headline EBIT margin improved by 115 basis points to 10.04%, driven by a 7.3% decline in fuel unit costs to 1.65p, resulting in a slight increase in total fuel costs to £627 million [4][5]. - Headline pre-tax profit (PBT) saw a healthy increase of 21.1% to £286 million, aligning with previous forecasts [5]. Guidance and Market Reaction - The absence of reiterated FY25 guidance led to a decline in the share price, with analysts adjusting PBT estimates down to approximately £656 million from £697 million due to anticipated impacts from ATC staff strikes and higher fuel costs [6][7]. - Despite the negative sentiment, Q4 forward bookings are 1.0% higher than the previous year, and there is an upward adjustment in ASK growth for the year from 8.0% to 9.0% [8]. Future Outlook - The company aims for a medium-term PBT exceeding £1.00 billion and a 60.0% increase in net book value, with expectations of reiterating or upgrading its outlook in November [10]. - The stock is currently undervalued with an EV/EBITDA ratio of 2.4 compared to the sector average of 8.4, and projected earnings growth at a CAGR of 11.9% through FY27 suggests a potential for recovery [11].