Core Insights - The struggling property market in China has significantly impacted KE Holdings Ltd., leading to a 36% year-on-year profit decline in Q3 to 747 million yuan [2][4] - Despite a 20.2% revenue increase to 93.5 billion yuan in 2024, profit fell 31% to 4.08 billion yuan, indicating challenges in maintaining profitability amidst falling commissions [3][4] - KE Holdings has engaged in substantial share repurchases, totaling $2.3 billion over the last three years, with $675 million spent in 2023 alone [11] Financial Performance - Revenue for KE Holdings increased by 2.1% year-on-year in Q3 to 23.1 billion yuan, but profit saw a steep decline of 36.1% [4] - The total value of existing home transactions facilitated by KE rose 5.8% to 505.6 billion yuan, yet revenue from this segment fell 3.6% to 6 billion yuan [5] - New home transaction value dropped 13.7% to 196.3 billion yuan, leading to a 14.1% revenue decline in that segment [5] Business Strategy - KE Holdings has implemented a "one body, three wings" strategy to diversify its operations, focusing on core brokerage, home improvement, rental services, and property development [7] - The home improvement segment remained flat at 4.3 billion yuan, while the property development segment faces challenges due to high spending and modest returns in a weak market [8][9] Market Conditions - The ongoing downturn in China's property market continues to pressure KE's core brokerage operations, with no immediate recovery in sight [10] - Analysts have expressed bearish sentiments, with UBS reducing profit forecasts for 2025-2027 by 24% to 29% and downgrading the stock recommendation from "buy" to "hold" [13] Stock Performance - KE Holdings' shares have declined approximately 40% from their 12-month high, despite a strong rally in the Hong Kong stock market [10] - The company’s stock trades at a high forward P/E ratio of 34 times, indicating potential challenges for price appreciation in the near term [14] Long-term Outlook - KE Holdings has shown resilience compared to other sector players, maintaining revenue growth and market share despite profit declines [15] - The company's strong balance sheet positions it well to weather the downturn, with potential for significant benefits once the market recovers [16]