Investment & Adoption - Texas becomes the first U S state to add Bitcoin exposure to a state-managed investment fund [1] - Texas purchased approximately $5 million of BlackRock's IBIT ETF under its new SB 21 Bitcoin Reserve [1]

Core Viewpoint - Arthur Hayes maintains his prediction that Bitcoin could reach $200,000–$250,000 by the end of 2025, viewing the recent drop to $80,000 as a cycle bottom rather than the onset of a new bear market [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent decline in Bitcoin's price from a high of $125,000 to $80,000 is characterized as a liquidity-driven reset, influenced by significant dollar liquidity changes [2][3]. - Approximately $1 trillion has been drained from dollar money markets since July, attributed to the US Treasury's account refilling and the Federal Reserve's quantitative tightening [3]. Group 2: ETF Market Misunderstandings - The inflows into Bitcoin ETFs were misinterpreted by retail investors, who believed it indicated strong institutional support, while in reality, the largest holders were basis traders exploiting spreads [4][5]. - Major firms like Brevan Howard, Goldman Sachs, and others are involved in trading the IBIT ETF, primarily engaging in basis trading rather than long-term Bitcoin investment [5]. - As funding rates decreased, these institutional players unwound their trades, leading to negative ETF flows, which retail investors misinterpreted as institutions selling off Bitcoin [6].

The Morning Minute (11.26)Powered by @yeet⏰Top News:-Crypto majors slightly red; BTC at $86,700-Polymarket cleared to operate in the US by CFTC-Kalshi blocked for sports markets in Nevada after injunction removed-Texas buys $5M of BTC via IBIT for state level BTC Reserve-MON token jumps another 24% to $4.8B FDV, leads all top movers🌎 Macro Crypto and Memes-Crypto majors are slightly red; BTC -1% at $86,600; ETH -1% at $2,910, BNB +1% at $856, SOL even at $136-MON (+24%), SPX (+13%), and IP (+7%) led top mov ...

LATEST: 🇺🇸 Texas has become the first US state to publicly invest in Bitcoin, purchasing $5 million worth of shares in BlackRock’s IBIT ETF on Nov. 20. https://t.co/KLkC4RhhmC ...

Bitcoin Adoption - Texas purchased $10 million of Bitcoin through IBIT ETF at $87,000 [1] - This marks the first U S state purchase, utilizing an ETF wrapper for regulatory compliance instead of direct custody [1] - Wyoming, Florida, and Arizona have similar bills in committee [1] ETF Market Dynamics - IBIT experienced $2 35 billion in retail outflows in November as sovereign entities began investing [1] - States are expected to hold their Bitcoin investments [1]

Investment & Adoption - Texas purchased $10 million in Bitcoin on Nov 20 at approximately $87,000 basis, becoming the first U S state to do so [1] - The state treasury plans to self-custody its bitcoin once the RFP process is completed [1] - The initial allocation was executed through BlackRock's IBIT ETF [1]

Core Insights - Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ:MSTR) is experiencing a decline of over 3%, with investors reacting negatively to Michael Saylor's digital finance vision and selling near the $250–$260 resistance zone [1] Digital Finance Vision - Michael Saylor emphasized 2025 as a crucial year for digital assets and corporate capital models at Cantor Crypto 2025 [2] - Saylor described Bitcoin's evolution from "digital gold" to "digital capital," which is foundational for a new financial system based on programmable money [3] - The U.S. is positioned as a "Bitcoin superpower" due to significant pro-Bitcoin cabinet appointments and the acceptance of Bitcoin as collateral by major financial institutions like JPMorgan Chase, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, and The Bank of New York Mellon [3][4] Corporate Adoption of Bitcoin - The number of public companies holding Bitcoin has increased to over 200, up from 60 last year, with the IBIT ETF surpassing $100 billion in assets [5] Strategy Inc.'s Business Model - Strategy Inc. is evolving into a digital treasury company, issuing securities, purchasing Bitcoin, and building credit on top of it [6] - The company has executed its digital treasury model 85 times, deploying $48 billion and owning 3.1% of Bitcoin's total supply [7] - Saylor compared Bitcoin to "insulin for corporate finance," allowing companies to store economic energy rather than depleting it through dividends [8][9] Credit Innovation - Saylor introduced a new digital credit strategy, describing it as the "birth of a new product class" due to the volatility of traditional bonds in Bitcoin-backed finance [10] - New tokenized credit instruments like Stride and Stretch are being developed, with Stretch projected to be the largest IPO of 2025, offering AI-engineered yields between 9% and 21% [11] - Strategy's credit line is over-collateralized up to sevenfold and currently rated B by S&P, with aspirations to achieve investment-grade status [12] Technical Analysis of MSTR - MSTR is showing a clear downtrend from an August high near $450, with bearish pressure confirmed by Parabolic SAR [13][15] - The stock is testing support at $215–$225, which is an accumulation zone from March and April, and failure to maintain this level could lead to further declines towards $190 or $175 [16][17] - Momentum indicators show weakness with lower highs and lows since September, and a sustained break above $275 would signal potential buyer strength [18]

Core Insights - Major crypto ETFs experienced significant outflows, with a total of $672 million withdrawn on October 30, primarily driven by risk aversion among institutional investors [1][2][3] - BlackRock's private-credit arm is embroiled in a $500 million fraud scandal, raising concerns about risk management and due diligence within the firm [1][4] Group 1: ETF Outflows - Institutional clients withdrew $490 million from Bitcoin ETFs on October 30, with BlackRock's IBIT ETF leading the outflows at $290.9 million [2] - Ethereum ETFs also faced substantial losses, totaling $184 million, with BlackRock's ETHA accounting for $118 million of this amount [2][3] - The outflows are interpreted as profit-taking and portfolio trimming rather than panic selling, indicating a broader retreat from risk amid macroeconomic uncertainty [3] Group 2: Fraud Scandal - BlackRock's private-credit division, HPS Investment Partners, is linked to a telecom-financing fraud involving over $500 million, which included fake accounts receivable [4] - Court filings allege that borrowers used forged contracts and invoices from major companies like T-Mobile and Telstra as collateral for large loans, revealing systematic forgery and misrepresentation [5]

Group 1 - Company Strategy (MSTR) purchased 168 BTC at an average price of $112,051, financed by raising $18.8 million through perpetual preferred shares and common stock [1] - MSTR's total bitcoin holdings now amount to 640,418 BTC, valued at approximately $71 billion, with an overall average acquisition price of around $74,010 [1] - Bitcoin price fluctuated, reaching over $115,000 on October 13, dropping to $103,500 on October 17, and rebounding to $111,000 on Monday [2] Group 2 - MSTR shares gained 3% in pre-market trading, approaching $300 per share, although the stock remains negative year-to-date compared to bitcoin's 19% gain [2] - The MSTR/BlackRock iShares Trust (IBIT) ratio is currently at 4.74, the lowest since October 2024, indicating that the IBIT ETF has outperformed MSTR over the past 12 months [3]

🚨 HUGE: Blackrock's $IBIT ETF was the fastest ETF to reach a value of $100B AUM. https://t.co/PGsEb36JU7 ...