IBM (NYSE:IBM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call October 22, 2025 05:00 PM ET Company ParticipantsAmit Daryanani - Senior Managing Director of Equity ResearchErik Woodring - Managing Director of Equity ResearchBen Reitzes - Managing Director and Head of Technology ResearchOlympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor RelationsJim Kavanaugh - SVP and CFOArvind Krishna - Chairman, President, and CEOConference Call ParticipantsJim Schneider - Senior Equity AnalystBrian Essex - Executive Director and Equity Research AnalystMa ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - IBM reported a revenue growth of 7% in Q3 2025, the highest growth in several years, with all segments accelerating sequentially [4][12] - Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 290 basis points, with adjusted EBITDA growth of 22% and operating earnings per share growth of 15% [13][19] - Free cash flow reached $7.2 billion year-to-date, marking the highest nine-month free cash flow margin in reported history, up $600 million year-over-year [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Software revenue grew by 9%, driven by a 22% increase in automation and a 12% increase in Red Hat revenue [14][15] - Infrastructure revenue grew by 15%, with hybrid infrastructure growing 26% and IBM Z revenue increasing by 59% year-over-year [16] - Consulting revenue increased by 2%, with intelligent operations up 4% and a significant contribution from AI services [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The demand for hybrid cloud products remains strong, with all major subscription offerings gaining market share [14] - The AI adoption is accelerating, contributing significantly to revenue growth across various segments [4][38] - The consulting generative AI book of business reached over $1.5 billion in Q3 2025, with the number of projects more than doubling year-over-year [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - IBM's strategy focuses on hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence, aiming to modernize client infrastructures and enhance productivity [5][12] - The company is committed to achieving $4.5 billion in annual run-rate productivity savings by the end of 2023 [6][19] - IBM is exploring M&A opportunities that align with its hybrid cloud and AI strategy, emphasizing synergy and growth potential [72][75] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about broad-based demand from clients despite macro uncertainties, highlighting technology as a key growth driver [4][5] - The company raised its expectations for revenue growth to more than 5% and free cash flow to about $14 billion for the year [12][22] - Management noted that the strength and diversity of IBM's portfolio continue to drive durable revenue and free cash flow performance [21][22] Other Important Information - IBM's generative AI offerings have shown momentum, with a book of business exceeding $9.5 billion since inception [8] - The company is on track to demonstrate the first error-corrected quantum computer by 2028, with significant progress in its quantum roadmap [11][12] - IBM's cash position at the end of the quarter was $14.9 billion, with a debt balance of $63.1 billion [20] Q&A Session Summary Question: Free cash flow dynamics and capital allocation - Management highlighted that free cash flow is expected to be around $14 billion for the year, driven by strong revenue growth and operating leverage [28][30] - They noted a $500 million headwind from the previous year due to a transaction but emphasized the underlying fundamentals supporting free cash flow growth [31][32] Question: AI adoption and its financial impact - Management confirmed that AI adoption is accelerating, contributing significantly to revenue growth, particularly in consulting and software [35][38] - They indicated that the government shutdown has had a minimal impact on IBM's business due to the essential nature of their services [36] Question: Software growth expectations for 2026 - Management expects continued growth in software, with Red Hat returning to mid-teens growth and automation remaining strong [47][50] - They anticipate a return to growth in transaction processing revenue, supported by the strong pipeline from the IBM Z17 platform [42][43] Question: M&A strategy and potential targets - Management reiterated that M&A is a critical part of their strategy, focusing on targets that align with their hybrid cloud and AI initiatives [70][72] - They remain open to larger transactions if they meet strategic criteria and can enhance growth rates [75][76] Question: AI readiness and enterprise spending - Management noted that enterprises are increasingly focusing on AI readiness, with a mix of cloud-native applications and self-hosted projects [79]

Core Insights - IBM is often overlooked in discussions about the future of artificial intelligence, but it should be considered by investors as a potential player in the AI space [2][3] Company Overview - IBM's primary profit center is software, which constitutes over 40% of its revenue and nearly two-thirds of its gross profits [4] - Hardware sales are crucial for generating software and consulting revenue, with every $1 spent on IBM's cloud hardware leading to an additional $3 to $5 on software and $6 to $8 on services [5] Market Position - While IBM's share of the AI data center market is significantly smaller than Nvidia's, which generated over $35 billion in AI data center revenue, IBM is still a company to watch as the AI sector evolves [3][6] - The enterprise infrastructure business is currently stagnant, primarily due to weak sales of its Z series mainframes [7] Technological Advancements - IBM's Z16 and upcoming Z17 platforms excel in a type of machine learning called inference, which is becoming increasingly relevant in the AI industry [9][11] - The global AI inference server market is projected to grow at an annualized rate of over 18% through 2034, indicating potential demand for IBM's mainframe servers [12] Investment Potential - IBM is positioned as a strong player in the inference market, with its Telum II processors capable of handling 24 TOPS, which could lead to significant revenue growth [14] - Increased AI server revenue could translate into higher-margin software revenue for IBM, with much of this new revenue being recurring [15]