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科华数据-25 年第二季度基本符合预期,国内前景稳固,海外扩张推进中;基于估值维持中性
2025-09-01 03:21
Summary of Kehua Data Co. (002335.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Kehua Data Co. (002335.SZ) - **Industry**: Industrial Technology & Machinery, specifically focusing on Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) and power management solutions Key Financial Results - **2Q25 Financial Performance**: - Revenue: Rmb2,516 million, down 1% YoY - Gross Profit: Rmb567 million, up 7% YoY - EBIT: Rmb218 million, up 24% YoY - Net Profit: Rmb175 million, up 15% YoY - Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 23%, up 2 percentage points YoY - Operating Profit Margin (OPM): 9%, up 2 percentage points YoY - Net Profit Margin (NPM): 7%, up 1 percentage point YoY - **Comparison to Guidance**: Results were largely in line with expectations, excluding credit impairment losses of Rmb47 million [1][19][20] Revenue Segmentation - **Data Center Products**: - Sales: Rmb784 million, up 34% YoY - **Smart Power Products**: - Sales: Rmb439 million, down 23% YoY - **Total Sales for 1H25**: Rmb1,224 million, up 6% YoY, compared to Kstar's Rmb1,299 million, up 8% YoY [2][10] Growth Outlook - **2H25 Expectations**: Anticipated 30% YoY growth in data center products driven by strong demand and order delivery schedules [2] - **Overseas Expansion**: Limited contribution in 1H25, but management is actively expanding the overseas customer base, with expectations for more business progress in 2026E [10] - **Domestic Demand**: Solid growth in 2025 YTD, maintaining high wallet share with major clients like Tencent [10] Product Development - **New Products**: Development of high-voltage direct current (HVDC) products and next-generation technologies [10][16] - **Cooling Solutions**: Offering liquid-cooled modular data centers and racks for AI applications, primarily serving Chinese telecom operators [16] Financial Projections - **Revised Net Income Forecasts**: Adjusted by -1% on average for 2025-2030E [1][19] - **12-Month Price Target**: Updated to Rmb42.6 from Rmb42.8, maintaining a Neutral rating due to current valuation levels [1][19] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected data center revenue growth - Weaker new energy revenue outlook - Reduced margins in new energy products - **Upside Risks**: - Better-than-expected customer capital expenditures - Faster product expansion and market share gains - Price competition in data center and renewable energy products [19][26] Valuation Metrics - **Market Cap**: Rmb29.8 billion / $4.2 billion - **P/E Ratios**: 34x for 2026E, 28.5x for 2027E - **CAGR**: 14% for 2027-2030E earnings [1][4][11] Conclusion - Kehua Data Co. is positioned as a leader in the UPS market with a focus on expanding its product offerings and market reach. The company is navigating a solid domestic demand landscape while actively pursuing international opportunities. The current valuation reflects a balanced risk/reward scenario, leading to a Neutral rating from analysts.