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Iron Mountain: Strong Core Operations And Fresh Value
Seeking Alpha· 2025-12-26 16:59
Core Viewpoint - Iron Mountain Incorporated (IRM) is currently viewed as a battleground stock, with bullish perspectives focusing on rapid growth and low AFFO multiples, while bearish views highlight concerns over high debt and AFFO calculations [1][2]. Bear Thesis - The bear thesis identifies three main reasons for the substantial drop in IRM's stock price over the past year: overvaluation, being caught in the AI selloff, and a short attack [4][7]. - The company has evolved from physical information storage to digital information management, which has led to its classification as a data center REIT, although this segment remains a small part of its business [5][6]. Financial Overview - As of September 30, 2025, IRM's total assets amounted to $20.63 billion, with current assets of $1.88 billion and total liabilities of $18.77 billion [9]. - The company has a significant operating lease liability of $2.28 billion, which is not classified as debt, as it represents long-term rental obligations rather than traditional debt [10][11]. AFFO and Earnings Adjustments - There are concerns regarding the inflation of reported AFFO, but IRM provides transparent reconciliations between GAAP and non-GAAP metrics [14][16]. - The company reported a normalized FFO of $276.89 million for Q3 2025, reflecting an 18.7% year-over-year increase [22]. - True AFFO is estimated to be approximately $320 million lower than reported AFFO, leading to an adjusted AFFO per share of $4.00 for 2025 [27][25]. Growth and Valuation - IRM has demonstrated strong growth across various business segments, with pricing power in its legacy records information management business contributing to its growth [28][31]. - Analysts project continued strong growth through 2028, with total revenue guidance for 2025 set between $6.79 billion and $6.94 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of approximately 12% [26][34]. - The current valuation shows IRM trading at 14X forward AFFO and 16X trailing AFFO, which may be undervalued given its growth rate [38][39]. Market Position - IRM's data center builds are expected to yield high returns, with cash on cash IRRs in the low double digits, supporting the company's growth strategy [31][36]. - The information management business is considered robust, with clients reliant on data retrieval services, providing IRM with continued pricing power [36].