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Shell fourth quarter 2025 update note
Globenewswire· 2026-01-08 07:00
Core Viewpoint - The company provides an updated outlook for Q4 2025, with expectations subject to finalization of results to be published on February 5, 2026. The outlook excludes identified items and includes various operational metrics across different segments. Integrated Gas - Q3'25 production was 934 kboe/d, with Q4'25 outlook between 930 - 970 kboe/d - LNG liquefaction volumes are expected to increase from 7.3 MT in Q3'25 to a range of 7.5 - 7.9 MT in Q4'25 - Underlying operating expenses (opex) are projected to rise from $1.1 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $1.2 - 1.4 billion in Q4'25 - Pre-tax depreciation is expected to decrease from $1.6 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $1.4 - 1.8 billion in Q4'25 - Taxation charge is anticipated to increase from $0.5 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $0.6 - 0.9 billion in Q4'25 [2] Upstream - Q3'25 production was 1,832 kboe/d, with Q4'25 outlook between 1,840 - 1,940 kboe/d, including the impact of the Adura JV incorporation - Underlying opex is expected to decrease from $2.2 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $2.1 - 2.7 billion in Q4'25 - Pre-tax depreciation is projected to decrease from $2.7 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $2.4 - 3.0 billion in Q4'25 - Taxation charge is expected to decrease from $1.9 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $1.4 - 2.2 billion in Q4'25 [3] Marketing - Sales volumes are expected to decrease from 2,824 kb/d in Q3'25 to a range of 2,650 - 2,750 kb/d in Q4'25 due to seasonal factors - Underlying opex is projected to decrease from $2.7 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $2.3 - 2.7 billion in Q4'25 - Pre-tax depreciation is expected to decrease from $0.6 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $0.5 - 0.7 billion in Q4'25 - Taxation charge is anticipated to decrease from $0.4 billion in Q3'25 to a range of $0.2 - 0.5 billion in Q4'25 [4] Chemicals and Products - Indicative refining margin is expected to increase from $12/bbl in Q3'25 to $14/bbl in Q4'25 - Indicative chemicals margin is projected to decrease from $160/tonne in Q3'25 to $140/tonne in Q4'25, with significant losses expected in adjusted earnings due to deferred tax adjustments - Refinery utilization is expected to decrease from 96% in Q3'25 to a range of 93% - 97% in Q4'25 - Chemicals utilization is projected to decrease from 80% in Q3'25 to a range of 75% - 79% in Q4'25 [5][6] Renewables and Energy Solutions - Adjusted earnings are expected to shift from $0.1 billion in Q3'25 to a range of (0.2) - 0.2 billion in Q4'25 [7] Corporate - Adjusted earnings are projected to decrease from (0.4) billion in Q3'25 to a range of (0.6) - (0.4) billion in Q4'25 [8] Shell Group - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) is expected to include a tax payment of $2.3 - 3.1 billion in Q4'25, down from $2.7 billion in Q3'25 - CFFO excluding working capital is expected to include an outflow of approximately $1.5 billion related to emissions certificates - Working capital movements are expected to include a typical payment of around $1.2 billion for German Mineral Oil Taxes in Q4'25 [9] Additional Considerations - The taxation charge across segments includes a non-cash reassessment of deferred tax assets, with an expected impact of approximately $0.3 billion split across joint ventures and associates in Marketing and Chemicals [10]
Shell Global(SHEL) - 2025 Q2 - Earnings Call Presentation
2025-07-31 13:30
Financial Performance - Adjusted Earnings were $4.3 billion in Q2 2025[9], compared to $5.6 billion in Q1 2025[15] - Cash flow from operations (CFFO) reached $11.9 billion in Q2 2025[9], with 46% of CFFO distributed to shareholders over the last 12 months[9] - Total shareholder distributions in Q2 2025 amounted to $5.7 billion, including $2.1 billion in cash dividends and $3.5 billion in share repurchases[10] - The company maintains a strong balance sheet with a gearing of 19%[9], and net debt of $43.2 billion[11] Strategic Initiatives - The company is implementing a new buyback program of $3.5 billion, expected to be completed by Q3 2025[9] - The company is targeting $5-7 billion in structural cost reductions by the end of 2028, cumulative from 2022 levels[37] - The company has delivered $3.9 billion of structural cost reductions, with >60% from non-portfolio activities[20] - Cash capital expenditure is projected to be $20-22 billion per annum from 2025-2028[9, 37] Portfolio and Growth - First cargo has left LNG Canada, which has a capacity of 14 mtpa (40% Shell share)[26] - The company is targeting LNG sales growth of 4-5% CAGR to 2030[24] - The company aims for >10% nFCF per share growth p a through 2030[37]