Retail sales of passenger vehicles in China, including sedans, MPVs, and SUVs, declined by over 8% year-on-year to 2.23 million units in November 2025 from 2.45 million units in the same month last year, according to data compiled by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA). This was the second consecutive month of decline for the market, after rebounding strongly over the last year, driven by government sales incentives and aggressive price competition among local manufacturers. The market is now looki ...

Summary of the Auto Industry and Shared Mobility Conference Call Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **North American Auto Industry** and **Shared Mobility** for the year 2026, highlighting a cautious outlook due to an anticipated 'EV Winter' expected to persist through 2026 [1][4][10]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Sales Forecasts**: - The 2026 US Auto sales forecast is set at **15.9 million** units, reflecting a **1.0% year-over-year decline**. This includes **14.9 million** Internal Combustion Engine (ICE) vehicles (+1.0% y/y) and **1.0 million** Electric Vehicles (EVs) (-20% y/y) [5][11][25]. 2. **Market Dynamics**: - The **2025 US Auto sales** showed unexpected resilience, driven by pre-buying before tariff implementations and the expiration of consumer tax credits for battery electric vehicles (BEVs) [4][10]. - Factors contributing to the cautious outlook include: - Continued lack of affordability due to the expiration of EV tax credits and rising average transaction prices (ATPs) [5][10]. - Tightened credit standards, particularly affecting subprime borrowers, although some modest loosening has been noted recently [5][10]. - Inflationary pressures from tariffs expected to impact consumer prices through the first quarter of 2026 [5][10]. 3. **Consumer Behavior**: - There is pent-up demand in the market, with US Auto SAAR still below pre-COVID levels and an aging car parc averaging nearly **13 years** [5][10]. - Rate cuts may marginally improve affordability for consumers [5][10]. 4. **Scenario Analysis**: - **Bull Case**: Forecasts a SAAR of **17.5 million** (+8.7% y/y) if consumer confidence improves and OEMs focus on core ICE/hybrid offerings [12][25]. - **Bear Case**: Projects a SAAR of **14.5 million** (-9.9% y/y) if credit availability tightens further and consumer affordability worsens [12][25]. 5. **Stock Ratings Changes**: - **General Motors (GM)** upgraded to **Overweight** with a target price of **$90**, citing strong execution and capital allocation strategies [8][48]. - **Tesla (TSLA)** downgraded to **Equal-weight** with a target price of **$425**, reflecting high expectations and near-term headwinds [8][51]. - **Rivian (RIVN)** and **Lucid (LCID)** downgraded to **Underweight** due to negative EV outlooks [8][54]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring policy updates regarding tariffs and consumer health indicators such as unemployment and inflation [12][13]. - The **EV market** is expected to face significant headwinds, with a projected **20% decline in volume** and a penetration rate of **6.5%** for BEVs in 2026 [10][31]. - Companies with diversified sourcing and regional manufacturing strategies are seen as better positioned amid geopolitical tensions and market shifts [47]. Conclusion - The North American auto industry is navigating a complex landscape with mixed signals for 2026. While there are opportunities for companies with strong execution and adaptability, significant challenges remain, particularly in the EV segment. Investors are advised to remain selective and focus on companies that can effectively manage costs and capitalize on market dynamics.

Sales Performance Overview - Ford's overall sales increased by 1.6% in October, with internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle sales up by 3.4% compared to October of the previous year [1][3] - However, electric vehicle (EV) sales saw a significant decline of 24.8%, attributed to the absence of the $7,500 government incentive [1][2] - Hybrid vehicle sales also decreased by 4% [2] Market Expectations - Analysts have raised their projections for full-year sales over the past month and a half, but October and November are expected to be challenging months [4] - The anticipated sales rate for October is projected to be between 15.7 million to 15.8 million vehicles [3] Consumer Behavior Insights - Despite the poor sales numbers, there is no indication of a drastic drop in consumer demand; dealers report steady traffic in showrooms [6][7] - There is a concern that the negative sales figures may lead to perceptions of a weaker consumer market, although dealers do not report a significant decline in demand [5][6] Seasonal Trends - December is typically one of the strongest months for vehicle sales, and it remains to be seen if this trend will continue this year [4][5]

Core Insights - Indian and Chinese investors are actively seeking collaboration opportunities with existing automakers in South Africa, focusing on enhancing local production and exports [1][2][4] - The South African government is prioritizing investments in new energy vehicles (NEVs) and electric mobility to counter declining export prospects and competition from cheaper imports [3][9] - Mahindra & Mahindra plans to upgrade from semi-knocked-down (SKD) to complete-knocked-down (CKD) production, aiming to establish South Africa as a regional export hub [5][9] - Tata Motors is re-entering the African market through a partnership with Motus Holdings Limited to improve vehicle distribution [9] Industry Developments - The South African automobile sector is undergoing a revitalization effort, with a focus on attracting global automakers and enhancing local manufacturing capabilities [2][9] - The government is in discussions with major global players like Toyota and Ford to sustain automotive production amid challenges such as tariff risks and rising competition from China [7][9] - The transition from SKD to CKD manufacturing is expected to strengthen local production and reduce reliance on imports [4][9] Strategic Initiatives - The South African government is responding to external pressures, including U.S. tariffs and EU regulations on internal combustion engine vehicles, by promoting investments in clean mobility [3][9] - Mahindra & Mahindra is also exploring opportunities for electric vehicle assembly operations in Durban, supported by government policies [6][9] - The collaboration between Tata Motors and Motus Holdings Limited is aimed at enhancing market presence and distribution efficiency in the region [9]

Core Viewpoint - General Motors announced a $1.6 billion charge in its third-quarter earnings, linked to a strategic realignment of its electric vehicle (EV) production plans, which reflects proactive leadership rather than failure [3][4][6] Financial Impact - The $1.6 billion charge consists of approximately $1.2 billion in non-cash impairment for underutilized EV-related assets and about $400 million in cash costs to exit specific supplier contracts [6] - The company is trading at a P/E ratio of 9.19 and has a dividend yield of 1.04%, with a price target of $65.00, indicating potential upside [3][11] Market Dynamics - The charge is a response to two key market shifts: the moderation of government-incentivized EV adoption and the expiration of federal EV tax credits, which have reduced consumer purchasing incentives [7][8] - GM is prioritizing fiscal discipline by adjusting production schedules to align with actual consumer demand, avoiding overproduction that could erode margins [9] Core Business Strength - GM's traditional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles continue to generate significant cash flow, supporting the transition to EVs and shareholder returns [10] - In Q3, GM's U.S. vehicle sales increased by 8% year-over-year, with a total of 2.2 million vehicles sold in the first nine months of 2025, demonstrating strong consumer demand [14] Strategic Partnerships - GM has partnered with Hyundai to co-develop five new vehicles, aiming for 800,000 annual vehicle sales, which reflects a low-cost strategy to expand market presence [12] Future Outlook - Analysts have raised GM's stock price target to $68, indicating recognition of the company's financial resilience and strategic pivot towards EV profitability [17] - The upcoming third-quarter earnings call on Oct. 21 will be crucial for assessing full-year guidance and adjusted automotive free cash flow [17]

Summary of Global Auto Databook - June 03, 2025 Industry Overview - The report focuses on the global automotive industry, specifically analyzing sales trends, forecasts, and market dynamics across various regions including North America, Europe, Asia, and others [2][5][6]. Key Points and Arguments Global Sales Estimates - The report provides detailed sales estimates for light vehicles across different regions, highlighting significant growth and decline percentages over the years [5][6]. - For instance, in China, light vehicle sales are projected to grow from 21.0 million in 2022 to 21.6 million in 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.9% [5]. Regional Insights - **North America**: - U.S. light vehicle sales are expected to recover from 13.9 million in 2022 to 16.3 million in 2025, with a notable growth of 12.9% in 2023 [5]. - The market share of major OEMs like Ford and GM is analyzed, showing fluctuations in sales and inventory levels [12][14]. - **Europe**: - The report notes that European sales growth excludes light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales, indicating a focus on passenger vehicles [2]. - Total vehicle sales in Europe are projected to increase from 15.1 million in 2022 to 18.0 million in 2025, with a growth rate of 6.1% [5]. - **Asia**: - The Asian market, particularly China, is highlighted for its rapid recovery and growth potential, with sales expected to stabilize post-pandemic [5]. - Japan and South Korea show varied trends, with Japan's sales projected to recover slightly to 4.7 million by 2025 [5]. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the impact of national security on the automotive industry, suggesting that current geopolitical tensions may accelerate the adoption of AI in manufacturing and production processes [2]. - The transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is emphasized, with EV sales expected to grow significantly, from 7.6 million in 2022 to 12.4 million in 2025, marking a 59.7% increase [5]. Pricing and Inventory Trends - The analysis includes insights on gas prices and their impact on vehicle sales, noting a year-over-year decrease of 11.80% in gas prices as of April 2025 [16]. - Inventory levels are also discussed, with a significant reduction in days' supply for various vehicle segments, indicating a tightening market [12][14]. Financing and Leasing Trends - The report highlights trends in vehicle financing, noting an increase in the percentage of vehicles financed and leased, which reflects changing consumer preferences [19][20]. - The share of new vehicles that are leased has been steadily increasing, indicating a shift towards more flexible ownership models [19]. Additional Important Content - The report includes a variety of data sources, including Autodata and Morgan Stanley Research, ensuring a comprehensive analysis of the automotive market [2][5]. - It also addresses potential conflicts of interest due to Morgan Stanley's business relationships with covered companies, urging investors to consider this in their decision-making [2]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and data from the Global Auto Databook, providing a comprehensive overview of the automotive industry's current state and future outlook.

Core Insights - Hyundai Motor Manufacturing Middle East (HMMME) has commenced construction of its manufacturing facility in King Abdullah Economic City, marking a significant development in Saudi Arabia's automotive industry [1][5] - The joint venture between the Public Investment Fund (PIF) and Hyundai aims to enhance local manufacturing capabilities and create skilled jobs in the region [5][7] Company Overview - HMMME is a joint venture with PIF holding a 70% stake and Hyundai holding 30% [4] - The facility will be Hyundai's first manufacturing plant in the Middle East, with an annual production target of 50,000 vehicles, including both internal combustion engine (ICE) and electric vehicles (EV) [4][6] Industry Impact - The establishment of HMMME is part of a broader initiative by PIF to position Saudi Arabia as a global player in the automotive sector, enhancing domestic manufacturing capabilities and infrastructure [7] - The new facility is expected to create thousands of jobs and facilitate knowledge transfer and skills development within the local workforce [5][6]