Welcome back to the halftime report. I'm Dominic Chu with your ETF edge. While some have called recent outperformance of international markets just a catch-up trade, there's a case for more fundamental investing changes a foot.Joining me now is John Mayer, the chief ETF strategist over at JP Morgan. So, John, let's talk a little bit about what is driving that international outperformance. Is it just dollar weakness or can we count on more momentum.>> Uh, thanks for having me. Um I think that international m ...

Core Insights - Valuation and economic concerns regarding the United States are increasing, leading to a focus on international investment options in 2025 that are outperforming the S&P 500 [1] Group 1 - International ETFs are gaining attention as they show better performance compared to the S&P 500 amid rising concerns in the U.S. market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The S&P 500 is expected to finish the year with historically decent gains despite recent turbulence [1] Group 1 - The past couple of weeks have been turbulent for the market [1] - The S&P 500 index is showing resilience and is on track for positive year-end performance [1]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying equity portfolios internationally, highlighting the performance of non-U.S. markets as a potential opportunity for investors [1] Group 1 - The performance of non-U.S. equities has been notable, suggesting that investors may benefit from considering international diversification [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump's comments regarding the next Federal Reserve chair have introduced uncertainty into the markets, particularly concerning the independence of the Fed and its monetary policy direction [1][2]. Market Implications - The potential for a more dovish Federal Reserve under a new chair has led investors to anticipate quicker and deeper interest rate cuts, resulting in a decline in Treasury yields and a weakening of the U.S. dollar [3]. - Lower interest rates are generally favorable for equities, especially in sectors sensitive to rate changes such as real estate, consumer discretionary, and commodities, which may lead to outperformance of related ETFs [4]. - A weaker U.S. dollar in a dovish monetary environment tends to enhance the attractiveness of non-U.S. assets, including emerging-market equities and international ETFs [5]. Risks to Market Confidence - The possibility of a politically aligned Fed chair could necessitate a "political risk premium," impacting investor confidence and potentially leading to concerns about policy consistency and inflation [6]. Scenario Analysis - Various scenarios could unfold, including a dovish pivot with accelerated rate cuts, a volatility spike due to fears of Fed politicization, or a status quo with ongoing uncertainty. Each scenario has distinct implications for ETF performance, with potential rallies in fixed-income ETFs and outperformance in equity and real-asset ETFs under a dovish pivot [7][8]. Investor Guidance - Investors should monitor the formal nomination announcement and comments from potential nominees regarding interest-rate policy and Fed independence. Positioning in rate-sensitive sectors and global diversification may be prudent if a dovish pivot occurs, while maintaining caution due to potential volatility [9].

Core Insights - International ETFs have demonstrated strong performance this year, surpassing major indices such as the Vanguard S&P 500 ETF and the Invesco QQQ Trust [1] Performance Comparison - The performance of international ETFs has been notably impressive, indicating a trend of resilience with fewer fluctuations compared to domestic counterparts [1]