Group 1 - California Governor Gavin Newsom issued an executive order prohibiting state officials from using insider knowledge to bet on prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi [1][2][3] - The order was prompted by concerns over potential misuse of inside information, highlighted by a trader who profited over $400,000 from betting on the ousting of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro [2] - All gubernatorial appointees are now banned from profiting from non-public information in predictive markets, including aiding family or former business partners [3] Group 2 - Kalshi emphasized that insider trading violates their rules and that government employees should be aware that trading on federally regulated markets using non-public information is illegal [4]

This trip, has been very positive in many ways.I’ve talked to 100+ people since being in LAPrediction markets have been brought up without me even saying the word> Whenever I mention “the odds” after discussing with a random person who might win, the response 80% of the time is “Oh like Polymarket!?” Or “On Kalshi?!”On the content side of things, it’s been a growing experience in the best way.> first “solo” content trip, without the gang, you can just do things> lot of trial n error on content types, I wann ...

RT se (@seyong)here’s an illustrative example:- you bet $100 at even odds on the Knicks to win. Knicks are up 40 with 5 minutes to go.- on Fanduel/Draftkings, your cash out value is $170 (house always haircuts the impatience).- on Polymarket/Kalshi, this same value would actually be $195 (weighed by probability of Knicks winning and done p2p).- you realize you can get better live odds p2p and move to prediction markets.- you start making and closing bets intra-game a lot more often given its convenience.- y ...

Core Viewpoint - The Netherlands Gambling Authority (Ksa) has penalized Adventure One QSS Inc., operator of Polymarket, for offering illegal gambling services without a license, reflecting increasing regulatory scrutiny on prediction markets globally [1][2]. Regulatory Actions - Ksa has mandated Polymarket to cease operations for Dutch users immediately, with potential fines of €420,000 ($462,000) per week, up to a maximum of €840,000 ($924,000) for non-compliance [2]. - Ksa's director highlighted that prediction markets are illegal in the Netherlands, citing social risks such as potential election influence [3]. Industry Trends - Prediction markets are experiencing significant growth, with platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi seeing increased activity, particularly around major political events, leading to combined monthly trading volumes exceeding $13.5 billion and over 43 million transactions [4]. - The sector faces a fundamental dispute where operators claim they are not gambling platforms, while regulators argue that betting on uncertain outcomes constitutes gambling [5]. Company Developments - Despite regulatory challenges, Polymarket continues to pursue commercial opportunities, recently partnering with Substack to integrate live data into newsletters and securing a deal with Major League Soccer [6].

RT Ignas | DeFi (@DefiIgnas)The only way I'll make real money from Polymarket is the $POLY token.I don't have an edge in sports betting or political events (no insider info).I'm not confident enough to size up against rates traders or other economic data.Arbitraging between Kalshi & Polymarket seems too late now to compete with MMs.Hedging my crypto longs is the only trade that actually makes sense for me.Thus airdrop with the highest multiplier for early adoptoooors is my biggest hope.And, if that happens, ...

What does the future hold for prediction markets?After the Super Bowl drove record volumes across @Kalshi and @Polymarket, the Messari team discusses whether this represents a local top or sustainable growth.Join @dylangbane @NaytheForceBwU @0xCryptoSam @AvgJoesCrypto @Degenerate_DeFi for another episode of Fully Diluted ...

🎥 WATCH: Prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi are surging in popularity as billions are traded on real-world events, sparking debate over whether they’re the future of forecasting or just smarter gambling. https://t.co/Kmch1KCtgq ...

Core Viewpoint - The proposed market structure bill in Congress aims to establish the U.S. as the "gold standard" for crypto regulation, providing much-needed clarity and oversight for digital asset markets [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Goals - The legislation seeks to provide clarity and a defined framework for digital assets, including a "token taxonomy" to distinguish between securities and other asset types [1][3]. - The bill is intended to address the current lack of oversight in the U.S. digital asset market, which has led to many businesses relocating offshore [3]. Group 2: Regulatory Approach - The current approach of treating all digital assets as securities is considered outdated; many should be classified as commodities under CFTC oversight instead [5]. - The new legislation will also clarify rules for prediction markets, which have been regulated by the CFTC for over 20 years, aiming to foster innovation in this area [6]. Group 3: Future Projections - CFTC Chairman Selig anticipates that the crypto market structure bill could reach President Trump's desk within the next couple of months, highlighting the administration's support for the cryptocurrency industry [7].

RT Ignas | DeFi (@DefiIgnas)Hyperliquid's (HIP-4) is cool:If Outcomes compose with perps, you can long ETH + buy an 'ETH below $2k' outcome as a hedge, and your margin drops because the positions offset each other.Polymarket or Kalshi can't do this.Another innovation is permissionless deployment.Polymarket curates its markets but if Hyperliquid lets anyone create markets, the long tail of degen markets opens up.I'd like governance vote events or maybe degen memecoin events?Probably will require some $HYPE s ...

Week in Prediction Markets: Coinbase Adds Kalshi, Shutdown Odds Swing 📊Prediction markets saw key advances this week as Coinbase rolled out Kalshi trading nationwide and U.S. regulators signaled plans to clarify rules for the industry. Meanwhile, the odds of a U.S. government shutdown soared.Here’s a quick rundown. 🧵1/7 ...