Summary of Zijin Mining Group Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Zijin Mining Group - **Industry**: Greater China Materials - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Market Capitalization**: US$125.471 billion - **Current Share Price (as of December 30, 2025)**: HK$35.36 - **Price Target**: HK$46.10, indicating a 30% upside potential Key Financial Highlights - **Preliminary Net Profit for 2025**: Rmb51-52 billion, representing a year-over-year increase of 59-62% compared to the previous year [6][2] - **Consensus Estimate**: The preliminary result is in line with Morgan Stanley's estimate of Rmb52.4 billion [6] - **Fourth Quarter 2025 Profit**: Estimated at Rmb13.2-14.2 billion, showing a quarter-over-quarter decline from Rmb14.6 billion in Q3 2025, attributed to higher selling, general, and administrative expenses [6] - **Production Figures for 2025**: - Gold: 90 tons (up from 73 tons in 2024) - Copper: 1.09 million tons (up from 1.07 million tons in 2024) - Silver: 437 tons (slightly up from 436 tons in 2024) - Lithium Carbonate Equivalent (LCE): 25,000 tons (down from 261 tons in 2024) [6] Future Projections - **2026 Production Targets**: - Gold: 105 tons - Copper: 1.2 million tons - Silver: 520 tons - LCE: 120,000 tons [6] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Based on a discounted cash flow (DCF) model with a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of 7.5% and a steady-state revenue growth rate of 3% per annum [7] - **Risks to Upside**: - Stronger copper prices due to robust demand or supply disruptions in key copper-producing countries - Volume increases from project ramp-ups and untapped resources [10] - **Risks to Downside**: - Weaker copper prices driven by economic downturns or lack of policy action in China - Potential misses on project executions and geopolitical risks leading to production disruptions [10] Analyst Insights - **Analyst Ratings**: The stock is rated as "Overweight," indicating expected performance above the average total return of the industry over the next 12-18 months [3][30] - **Industry View**: The materials sector is considered attractive, suggesting positive sentiment towards the industry as a whole [3][33] Additional Information - **Average Daily Trading Value**: US$178 million [3] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS) Estimates**: - 2025: Rmb1.97 - 2026: Rmb2.51 [3] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Zijin Mining Group, highlighting financial performance, production targets, valuation methodologies, and associated risks.