China Technology & Communications Implications from GTC & OFC 2026 CITI'S TAKE Vi e w p o i n t | 22 Mar 2026 16:58:08 ET │ 16 pages We gathered more comments from the supply chain based on our US tech team publications and checks from the GTC and OFC events. As highlighted in our First Take, LPU production progress and ratio of Rubin Ultra Rack vs. LPX was higher than expected benefiting WUS as the first and largest beneficiary. We see further upside to 2026 pluggable optical transceiver demand and bullish ...

推理利器 LPX 问世，Agent AI、太空算力架构迎革新 20260322 GTC 2026 大会后，PCB 与光模块领域出现了哪些核心增量与变化，尤其是 在英伟达新产品路线图的推动下？ GTC 2026 大会揭示了推理拐点的到来，预计英伟达旗舰芯片的销售额到 2027 年将达到至少 1 万亿美元，这为产业链注入了强劲信心。具体到 PCB 和 光模块领域，观察到以下几个关键增量： 在 PCB 方面，GTC 2026 展示的创 新使其成为超预期最显著的板块。首先，从 Blackwell 到 Rubin 架构的演进中， 机柜内部的"无缆化设计"成为一大趋势。原先 GB200/GB300 机柜内主要使 用 Overpass 铜缆连接，未来在 Rubin 架构中将更多地被 PCB 方案替代，如 compute trace、way trace 及 midplane 互连，这为 PCB 带来了明确的增 量。其次，在 Rubin Ultra 架构中，引入了中背板（Midplane 或称铜背板）， 用于连接计算节点（computer node）和交换刀片（switch blade），替代 了原有的铜缆方案，以解决散热和装 ...

Bank of America is urging investors to stay the course with Nvidia (NVDA), even as shares inch lower following the artificial intelligence (AI) darling’s annual GTC conference. In a research note dated March 18, analyst Vivek Arya maintained his “Buy” rating and a $300 price target on the chipmaker, indicating potential upside of more than 65% from here. While Nvidia stock is already up nearly 90% versus its 52-week low, Arya believes the market is still underestimating the sheer scale of the AI infrastr ...

Core Insights - The article discusses NVIDIA's GTC 2026 conference, highlighting CEO Jensen Huang's narrative control and the introduction of new AI technologies and concepts, including the transition from SaaS to Agentic AI [1][3][6]. Group 1: CUDA and Its Impact - CUDA's 20th anniversary marks a significant milestone, transforming GPUs from graphics rendering to general-purpose parallel computing machines [8][10]. - The release of CUDA in 2006 allowed developers to utilize GPUs for various applications, leading to a robust software ecosystem that supports diverse fields [11][15]. - NVIDIA's competitive advantage lies in its extensive CUDA ecosystem, which cannot be easily replicated by competitors [16][17]. Group 2: Evolution of AI - The modern deep learning era began with the success of AlexNet in 2012, showcasing the importance of GPUs in AI development [18][20]. - Huang emphasizes that structured and unstructured data play complementary roles in AI, enhancing the value of existing data assets [22][24][26]. - The focus of AI is shifting from training to inference, with Token Economics becoming a central theme in AI operations [27][28][32]. Group 3: Hardware Developments - The introduction of the Blackwell architecture is seen as a pivotal moment in AI infrastructure, with widespread adoption among cloud providers [43][44]. - Future architectures, such as Vera Rubin, are expected to significantly enhance AI inference capabilities and commercial viability [51][52]. - The transition from copper to photonic interconnects in AI systems is crucial for scaling up performance and efficiency [56][58]. Group 4: Agentic AI and New Paradigms - Huang introduces the concept of Agentic AI, which goes beyond traditional chatbots to perform complex tasks autonomously [72][74]. - The market is shifting from SaaS to Agent-as-a-Service (AgaaS), indicating a new approach to enterprise software procurement [80][79]. - The emergence of NemoClaw represents a significant step in making AI agents more accessible and applicable in the physical world [81][90]. Group 5: Physical AI and Real-World Applications - The integration of AI into physical systems is exemplified by the demonstration of a character from popular culture, illustrating the potential of Physical AI [106][107]. - NVIDIA aims to create a comprehensive pipeline for Physical AI, encompassing data generation, simulation training, and real-world deployment [99][100]. - The narrative emphasizes the transition of digital intelligence into tangible applications, redefining the future landscape of AI technology [107].

Nvidia LPU/LPX機櫃將迎來數量級成長：應用趨勢、生態整合與PCB新成長週期1. 我的最新產業調查顯示，Nvidia投資Groq後，LPU出貨規劃大幅上修。2026-2027年LPU共出貨預估約400–500萬顆（2026約30–40%、2027約60–70%），相較過去年度出貨量，將出現10倍以上的數量級成長。2. LPU需求快速成長主要來自兩項因素：(1) 與Nvidia生態系 (如CUDA) 高度整合，大幅降低應用開發與部署門檻。(2) 超低延遲推論需求快速增加，包括AI agents（如coding agents）以及正在興起的real-time、consumer-facing與physical-AI等類型應用。3. 為維持推論decode階段的超低延遲優勢，並因應長文本推理帶動的KV cache需求快速成長，Nvidia預計將每機櫃LPU數量由目前64顆提升至256顆，以擴大記憶體容量並維持超低延遲效能。新架構機櫃預計於4Q26–1Q27量產，2026與2027年機櫃出貨量分別約300–500與15,000–20,000個。4. Nvidia生態整合LPU的三個關鍵觀察重點：(1) 網路架 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry and Company Involved - The conference call focuses on the semiconductor and electronics industry, specifically highlighting NVIDIA and its upcoming products and technologies. Core Insights and Arguments - **LPX Rack Enhancements**: The LPX (also known as LPU) is expected to utilize SRAM-based on-chip memory, providing rapid token generation and ultra-low latency, thereby strengthening NVIDIA's position in the inference domain [1][2] - **Collaboration with Groq**: Prior to a non-exclusive licensing agreement with Groq in December 2025, the LPX design will feature 64 Groq LPUs interconnected via RealScale chips [1][2] - **Future LPX Developments**: For GTC 2026, an enhanced LPX rack is anticipated to include 256 LPUs, utilizing multi-layer 52LM9 Q-glass PTH PCB, with an estimated PCB value of approximately $200 per LPU [2] - **VR200 NVL72 Performance**: The Rubin architecture is expected to enhance NVIDIA's product leadership, achieving a 5x/3.5x improvement in inference/training performance compared to GB300, aided by HBM4 technology [2] - **CPX Chip Design Changes**: Due to GDDR7 shortages, the CPX chip design is likely to shift to HBM4, with a smaller capacity than the conventional Rubin [3] - **NVL576 Architecture**: The NVL576 is expected to showcase a hybrid CCL orthogonal backplane, with potential designs including various layers of PTFE and Q-glass M9 to improve signal transmission [3] - **Optical Interconnect Solutions**: NVIDIA plans to introduce Scale Up optical interconnect solutions for the NVL576 architecture in the second half of 2027 [4] Additional Important Insights - **Scale Out CPO Switches**: NVIDIA may launch a new generation of Scale Out CPO switches, which are expected to significantly improve thermal performance and cost-performance ratio compared to previous generations [4] - **Sales Projections**: The forecast for NVIDIA's Scale Out CPO switches has been revised upwards to 20,000/100,000 units for 2026/2027, driven by aggressive promotion and bundling strategies [4] - **Beneficiaries of Growth**: Key beneficiaries from these developments include suppliers such as FAU, CW Laser, and various connector manufacturers like Lumentum and Sumitomo, with Chinese FAU suppliers expected to capture significant market share [4] - **Stock Recommendations**: 1. NVIDIA (NVDABuy) due to strong short-term quarterly performance and positive outlook from OpenAI financing [5] 2. Lumentum (LITEBuy) for its leadership in CPO and CW Laser market expansion [5] 3. Other companies like 波若威 and 台虹 are noted for their advancements in CPO and PTFE-CCL development [5] - **PCB Market Outlook**: The PCB market is expected to benefit significantly from increased backplane value, with cabinet value projected at $300,000 and backplane ASP at over $2 [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported Q3 2025 revenues of $205.1 million, reflecting a 77% year-on-year growth [4][20] - Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) reached $807.5 million, also up 77% year-over-year [4][20] - Adjusted quarterly EBITDA was $70.7 million, up from $58.3 million in Q2, with an EBITDA margin of 34.5%, an increase from 32.1% in Q2 [4][5][27] - Gross revenue retention (GRR) for the combined company was 98% [5][21] - Gross margin for the integrated business was 78.5%, with core Clearwater's steady-state clients achieving 82% gross margin [5][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Core Clearwater business grew approximately 21% year-to-date compared to last year [8] - Infusion is expected to grow 12% for the year, with strong booking execution in Q2 and Q3 [8] - Beacon continues to perform well, contributing to overall growth [8] - The hedge fund market was a key contributor to revenue upside, with significant growth in bookings across various sectors [9][20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total addressable market (TAM) has grown to approximately $23 billion, balanced across geographies and markets [6][8] - Growth in Q3 bookings was evenly spread across insurance, asset management, asset owners, and hedge funds [9] - The company signed a global multi-billion hedge fund client, indicating strong market demand [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to build an integrated, open, modular, and extensible front-to-back platform, which is expected to disrupt the industry [15][18] - Generative AI is seen as a key technological advancement, with the company leveraging it to improve margins and operational efficiency [16][18] - The company plans to roll out a new pricing model for Infusion starting January 1, 2026, aligning value with pricing for clients [39][40] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the competitive positioning and growth trajectory, with a strong pipeline for Q4 and beyond [20][29] - The company anticipates continued growth driven by cross-selling opportunities and the integration of new acquisitions [11][28] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining high gross retention rates and the potential for net revenue retention to reach 115% [22][21] Other Important Information - The company has made significant progress in integrating the businesses acquired, with a focus on enhancing product offerings and client solutions [19][29] - Recent board appointments and leadership hires are expected to strengthen the company's strategic direction [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: What segments of the market are seeing elevated strength? - Management noted strong growth in alternatives, risk, and insurance sectors, with hedge funds also performing well in Q2 and Q3 [31][32][33] Question: How does the ARR growth of 17% reconcile with core business growth? - Management explained that larger deals create lumpiness in ARR, but overall revenue and organic ARR growth were strong [34][35] Question: What is the expected timing for the new pricing model for Infusion? - The new pricing model will be rolled out for new clients starting January 1, 2026, with existing clients to follow [39][40] Question: How is the international business performing? - The international business metrics remained consistent with previous quarters, contributing positively to overall performance [49][50] Question: What is the adoption rate of combined company assets? - Asset management has become the largest booking industry, with significant traction in risk-related offerings and alternatives [51][52]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue for Q1 2025 was $126.9 million, representing a year-on-year growth of 23.5% [4][29] - Annualized recurring revenue (ARR) reached $493.9 million, up 22.7% year-on-year [5][30] - Adjusted EBITDA was $45.1 million, accounting for 35.5% of revenue, with a year-on-year growth of 40% [5][31] - Gross margin improved to 78.9%, up from 75.1% in FY 2022, exceeding expectations [13][30] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has maintained over 20% revenue growth for the past six years, with a win rate of 80% and a gross revenue retention rate (GRR) of over 98% [9][10] - The launch of a commercial contract restructuring program in 2022 has helped dampen revenue downside during AUM declines while retaining revenue upside during AUM growth [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has secured significant wins in Europe, including a leading German insurance company, which validates its expansion strategy [18] - A global asset manager expanded its partnership to include additional solutions, demonstrating strong cross-sell momentum [18] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The strategic acquisitions of Infusion, Beacon, and Bistro aim to create a fully cloud-native investment platform that integrates front, middle, and back office operations [19][20] - The company plans to implement a three-phase roadmap focusing on maximizing standalone business potential, cross-selling, and developing a unified platform [23][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to execute and drive growth despite market complexities [5][16] - The company is focused on client satisfaction and operational efficiency, which are seen as key to improving profitability [12][31] Other Important Information - The company expects to achieve a 20% growth rate, with a 50 basis point gross margin improvement and a 200 basis point EBITDA expansion per year [27] - The integration of operations and client servicing teams under common leadership is expected to enhance efficiency [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Thoughts on future growth rates and margin pacing - Management reiterated a commitment to 20% growth for Clearwater and Beacon, with expectations for Infusion to improve from 13% growth [46][47] Question: Demand outlook and macroeconomic impact - Management noted that Q1 revenue was solid and that they have not seen significant negative impacts from recent market turmoil [58][60] Question: Synergies from acquisitions - Management confirmed expectations for $20 million in cost synergies and improvements in gross margin over the next two years [66] Question: Organic growth expectations - Management provided guidance indicating that organic growth for Clearwater would remain above 20%, with contributions from acquisitions factored in [84][87] Question: Insights on Infusion's pricing and customer conversations - Management indicated a strong receptivity to developing a stable commercial model for Infusion, aiming for consistent growth [79][80]