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瑞银:中国两轮车行业-评估美国加征关税风险
瑞银· 2025-05-25 14:09
Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to Ninebot and CFMoto, indicating a positive outlook for both companies in the two-wheeler sector [5][34]. Core Insights - The two-wheeler sector is facing challenges due to US tariff hikes, with companies like Taotao and Greenworks having significant revenue exposure to the US market [2][3]. - Companies are proactively building inventories in the US to mitigate the impact of tariffs, which has led to high revenue growth and margins in early 2025 [3][4]. - Despite the tariff challenges, businesses expect flat or slightly higher revenue in the US market for 2025, driven by channel restocking and capacity relocation [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Revenue Exposure and Tariff Impact - Taotao and Greenworks have 70-80% revenue exposure to the US, while CFMoto has 30% and Ninebot less than 10% [2]. - Current US tariffs on Chinese exports range from 40-60%, prompting companies to relocate capacity to regions with lower tariffs, such as Southeast Asia and Mexico [3]. Company-Specific Outlook - Ninebot anticipates ongoing growth across its business lines, with a revenue target of Rmb40 billion by 2027, including significant contributions from electric two-wheelers and lawnmowers [7][8]. - CFMoto plans to ramp up production in Mexico and Thailand to address tariff impacts, expecting US ORV revenue to remain flat or slightly increase in 2025 [10]. Market Trends and Future Projections - The competitive landscape may improve as smaller competitors exit the market due to tariff pressures, allowing stronger companies to gain market share [4]. - Greenworks sees a growing trend in lithium battery-powered lawnmowers, with potential for significant market expansion in the coming years [12].