1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The lead market is in a wide - range shock. The supply and demand of lead concentrate and waste batteries continue to have gaps, processing fees are under pressure to decline, and the cost side still has support. Refinery overhauls increase, the supply pressure of electrolytic lead and secondary lead weakens marginally, and demand is affected by both the boost of the new national standard and the pressure of battery exports. The supply - demand maintains a weak pattern, and the lead price should be treated with a shock mindset. It is necessary to continuously monitor the implementation of refinery overhauls and the fulfillment of demand [2][76]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Lead Market Review - In August, the main contract price of Shanghai lead showed a narrow - range weak shock. At the beginning of the month, the lead price rebounded to around 17,000 yuan/ton due to factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, good domestic import - export data, and supply - side disturbances. After the optimistic sentiment faded, the lead price oscillated downward due to the non - fulfillment of the consumption peak season and the increase in social inventory. It then rebounded at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 0.87% to 16,880 yuan/ton. - LME lead showed a convergent shock trend. On one hand, the weakening US dollar boosted the lead price; on the other hand, the high LME inventory and short - selling enthusiasm of speculative funds pressured the price. It closed at 1,997 US dollars/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.4% [7]. 3.2 Lead Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **Global lead concentrate supply is slowly recovering**: From January to June 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate output was 220.4 million tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.16%. Overseas output was 127.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.15%, and China's output was 93 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.56%. It is expected that the overseas lead concentrate increment will reach about 10 million tons this year, and the domestic increment will be around 7 million tons [8][10]. - **Lead concentrate processing fees remain low, and the demand for silver concentrate imports is increasing**: In September, the average domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 450 yuan/metal ton, a month - on - month decrease of 50 yuan/metal ton; the import processing fee was - 90 US dollars/dry ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 US dollars/dry ton. The supply of lead concentrate is tight, and it is expected that the processing fees will continue to decline. In July, the lead concentrate import volume was 122,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28.35%; the silver concentrate import volume was 154,200 tons, a year - on - year increase of 24.62%. It is expected that the silver concentrate import will remain at the current level [18][19]. 3.2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **Global refined lead supply growth is slow**: From January to June 2025, the global refined lead output was 6.57 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.56%. It is predicted that the global refined lead output in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [24]. - **Refinery overhauls increase, and the electrolytic lead output in September is expected to decline**: In August, the electrolytic lead output was 324,700 tons, slightly lower than expected. It is expected that the output in September will be 320,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.24% [29]. - **The price of waste batteries is slowly falling, and secondary lead refineries are reducing production**: In August, the average price of waste batteries was 10,100 yuan/ton, a monthly decrease of 1.5%. The secondary lead output in August was 248,800 tons, lower than expected. It is expected that the output in September will be 209,900 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 16.8% [34][35]. 3.2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **Global refined lead demand situation**: From January to June 2025, the global refined lead consumption was 6.549 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 2.5%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons, and the supply will exceed the demand by 82,000 tons. The short - term recovery of the European and American automobile markets has uncertainty, and the boost to lead battery consumption is cautiously optimistic [48][49]. - **The peak season of lead battery production is not prosperous, and there are mixed factors in September**: In August, the lead battery production peak season did not meet expectations. In September, the new national standard for electric bicycles is implemented, which is expected to improve the demand, but the export to some Middle - Eastern countries is facing tariff increases. It is expected that the battery enterprise production will remain cautious [53]. - **The Shanghai - London ratio is not conducive to lead product imports, and the tariff increase in the Middle East is negative for starting battery exports**: In July, the refined lead export volume decreased month - on - month, and the import volume increased month - on - month. It is expected that the import volume will decline in August, and the export will remain stable. The battery export is affected by the tax increase in the Middle East, and the export volume is expected to decline [54][55]. - **Policy guidance improves the lead battery consumption outlook marginally**: In the automotive sector, the demand for lead batteries is expected to increase with the growth of vehicle ownership and the implementation of subsidy policies. In the electric bicycle sector, the new national standard and the old - for - new policy are expected to increase the lead battery demand. In the energy - storage sector, the lead battery demand also has growth potential [64][67][68]. 3.2.4 LME Maintains High Inventory, and Domestic Inventory is Mildly Reduced - In August, the LME lead inventory remained high, and it is expected to continue to increase, which will pressure the lead price. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and it is expected to continue to decline slowly in September [73]. 3.3 Summary and Future Outlook - The supply - demand of lead concentrate and waste batteries has gaps, and the cost side has support. The supply pressure of electrolytic lead and secondary lead is weakening, and the demand is affected by both positive and negative factors. The lead price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the refinery overhauls and demand fulfillment [76].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the second half of the year, the lead market will show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead has new capacity plans, but the rigid constraints of raw material supply will limit the supply growth rate, with more prominent constraints for recycled lead. On the demand side, although there is an expectation of seasonal recovery, the consumption front - loading driven by policies may slow down the growth rate. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a neutral level, and the lead price is expected to range from 16,800 to 18,000 yuan/ton, with the center moving up. During the seasonal consumption recovery period, the price may show strong upward momentum [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Lead Market Review - In the first half of 2025, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures fluctuated widely around the bottom area, ranging from 16,165 to 17,805 yuan/ton. By the end of June, the price closed at 17,200 yuan/ton, up 2.23% from the beginning of the year. LME lead fluctuated strongly in the first quarter and first declined then rose in the second quarter. By the end of June, it closed at 2,041.5 US dollars/ton, up 5.59% from the beginning of the year [8][9]. II. Lead Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Lead Ore Supply Situation - **2.1.1 Global Lead Concentrate Supply Recovering Slowly**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative lead concentrate production was 1.4324 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.5%. From January to May 2025, the domestic cumulative lead concentrate production was 633,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.61%. It is expected that the overseas increment will be 100,000 tons and the domestic increment will be around 70,000 tons, with a global lead mine production growth rate of 2.3% to 4.62 million tons [10][12]. - **2.1.2 Lead Concentrate Processing Fees Remaining Low, Silver Concentrate Import Demand Increasing**: As of June 2025, the average domestic and foreign lead concentrate processing fees were 600 yuan/metal ton and - 30 US dollars/dry ton respectively. In the second half of the year, the processing fees are expected to stabilize and may rise slightly in the fourth quarter. From January to May 2025, the cumulative lead concentrate import volume was 552,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 40%. It is expected that the monthly import volume in the second half of the year will be between 130,000 and 150,000 tons. The import demand for silver concentrate is expected to remain high [20][21]. 2.2 Refined Lead Supply Situation - **2.2.1 Global Refined Lead Supply Growth Rate Moderate**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative refined lead production was 4.3915 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.4%. It is predicted that the global refined lead production in 2025 will be 13.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.6% [26][28]. - **2.2.2 Stable Electrolytic Lead Production, Focus on New Project Commissioning in the Second Half of the Year**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative electrolytic lead production was 1.8902 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.5%. It is expected that the annual electrolytic lead production will increase by 5.6% year - on - year to 3.8 million tons [31][32]. - **2.2.3 Profit and Raw Material Shortage Restraining Production, High Production Interference Rate in the Second Half of the Year**: From January to June 2025, the cumulative recycled refined lead production was 1.5734 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.35%. It is expected that the annual recycled refined lead production will be 3.1 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [37][39]. 2.3 Refined Lead Demand Situation - **2.3.1 Global Refined Lead Demand Situation**: From January to April 2025, the global cumulative refined lead consumption was 4.3697 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.66%. It is expected that the global refined lead demand in 2025 will increase by 1.5% to 13.19 million tons [44]. - **2.3.2 High Lead Battery Inventory, Focus on the Realization of the Traditional Consumption Peak Season in the Third Quarter**: In the first half of 2025, the lead battery enterprise start - up rate was slightly lower than the same period last year, and the finished product inventory and dealer inventory were at relatively high levels. In the second half of the year, the start - up rate is expected to improve in the third quarter, and the battery replacement demand will increase in the fourth quarter [51][57]. - **3.2.1 Unfavorable Shanghai - London Ratio for Lead Ingot and Battery Exports, Imports Supplementing Raw Material Ratio**: From January to May 2025, the cumulative net import volume of refined lead and lead products was 33,611 tons. In the second half of the year, the import volume is expected to rise in the third quarter and decline in the fourth quarter. The lead battery export volume decreased by 3.5% year - on - year from January to May 2025, and the decline is expected to narrow in the second half of the year [58][59]. - **2.3.2.2 Policy - Guided Marginal Improvement in Lead Battery Consumption Prospect**: In the automotive sector, the replacement demand for lead batteries is stable, and the new demand is growing. In the electric bicycle sector, the replacement demand is strong, and the new standard implementation and subsidy policy will boost consumption. In the energy storage sector, the demand for lead batteries has growth potential [64][69]. 2.4 High Overseas Inventory, Neutral Domestic Inventory - In the first half of 2025, the LME lead inventory was at a high level, and the domestic inventory was at a neutral level. In the second half of the year, the overseas inventory is expected to remain high, and the domestic inventory is expected to rise, but the inventory accumulation pressure will be relieved by the constraints on recycled lead production [77]. III. Summary and Outlook for the Future - In the second half of the year, the lead market will show a pattern of increasing supply and demand. The supply of primary lead and recycled lead has new capacity plans, but the rigid constraints of raw material supply will limit the supply growth rate, with more prominent constraints for recycled lead. The consumption side has seasonal recovery expectations, but the consumption front - loading may slow down the growth rate. It is expected that the inventory will remain at a neutral level, and the lead price is expected to range from 16,800 to 18,000 yuan/ton, with the center moving up [80].