The conflict in the Middle East has continued to be a focus of concern through March 2026, and certainly since GlobalData’s Global Light Vehicle Sales Forecast (G LVSF) was published on March 10th, 2026. At the time of the G LVSF publication, we had reduced the forecast for the next few years to capture the evolving events. That adjustment focused on lowering the Middle East Light Vehicle (LV) forecasts. For 2026, we reduced the Middle East LV forecast by 12.5%, from 3.1 mn units to 2.7 mn units. Roughly ...

Western Europe - The Western European light vehicle (LV) market saw a modest improvement in February with sales totaling 986k units, up 1.6% year-on-year (YoY) [1] - The monthly selling rate improved to 14.6 million units/year, while year-to-date (YTD) sales stand at 2.27 million units, down 2.3% from the same period in 2025 [1] - A significant contraction in France negatively impacted overall regional growth, and the outlook for 2026 is cautious due to potential inflationary pressures from recent developments in Iran [1] Canada and Mexico - Canadian light vehicle sales totaled an estimated 119k units in February, down 0.4% YoY, with a selling rate of 1.95 million units/year [2] - In Mexico, sales increased by 2.7% YoY to 127k units, although the selling rate eased to 1.71 million units/year [2] United States - US light vehicle sales fell by 3.6% YoY in February to 1.18 million units, with an annualized selling rate of 15.6 million units/year [3] - Weak electric vehicle (EV) sales and affordability concerns continue to hinder market performance, with average transaction prices at US$45,876, down US$327 month-on-month (MoM) but up 1.8% YoY [3] Global Market - Global light vehicle sales showed signs of faltering, with notable declines in both China and the US impacting overall volumes [4] - The global LV selling rate improved modestly to 86.6 million units/year, but the market declined 8.5% YoY due to a sharp contraction in the Chinese passenger vehicle market [5] Eastern Europe - In Eastern Europe, the LV selling rate slowed to 4.75 million units/year, with Russia's market declining 5.7% YoY to around 74k units [6] - The Turkish passenger vehicle market fell for the first time in a year, with sales totaling 70k units, down 8.2% YoY [6] China - China's passenger vehicle sales sank 32.5% YoY to 975k units in February, marking the lowest topline since April 2022 [7] - The YTD sales are down 24.9% YoY, with a monthly selling rate improving 28.9% MoM to 17.7 million units/year [7] Japan and Korea - Japanese LV sales fell by 3.8% YoY to 390k units in February, driven by a weak economic backdrop and rising financing costs [9] - Korean LV sales fell 6.2% YoY in February, but the selling rate rose to a five-month high of 1.78 million units/year [10] South America - Brazilian light vehicle sales totaled 177k units in February, up 2.0% YoY, with a selling rate of 2.82 million units/year [11] - In Argentina, sales totaled just under 40k units, down 4.9% YoY, but the selling rate accelerated to 555k units/year [12]

Over the past decade, China has established itself as one of, if not the leading player in the global automotive sector, holding both the largest domestic sales volume and highest vehicle manufacturing output in the world. That lead widened again in 2025. The country’s topline domestic Light Vehicle (LV) sales are estimated to reach a seven-year high of 26.9 mn units, up by 5.5% year-on-year (YoY) compared to 2024, aided by aggressive discounting and supportive government policy. However, the market’s red ...

The Western European LV market saw solid growth in December as sales reached 1.17 million units, up 3.2% YoY. The monthly selling rate built on November’s result, accelerating further to 15.07 million units/year. 2025 finished with 13.42 million units sold, up 0.3% from 2024’s result. Sales trends were mixed and, in some cases, unexpected. Spain, the standout market at the start of 2025, recorded its first decline in more than a year. Germany delivered the strongest performance among the Big Five, with grow ...

Market Performance - China's light vehicle (LV) market showed resilience in September 2025, with total sales reaching approximately 2.5 million units, reflecting an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - The passenger vehicle (PV) segment contributed significantly, growing by 10% YoY to 2.3 million units [1] - Light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales surged by 23% YoY, amounting to 216,000 units [2] Year-to-Date Trends - On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the LV market maintained a 12% expansion in volumes from January to September compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The overall Light Truck market posted a 2.5% YoY increase, driven by the rapid electrification of the Commercial Vehicle sector [2] Production Insights - China's LV production reached 3.2 million units in September, marking a solid YoY increase of 15.1% [3] - Passenger vehicles accounted for 90% of total output, rising by 14.7% YoY to 2.9 million units [3] - Domestic Chinese OEMs produced 2.3 million units, reflecting a notable 17.7% YoY uptick [3] Export Performance - In September, China's LV exports reached 611,000 units, representing a strong YoY increase of 18.2% and a month-over-month (MoM) rise of 7.1% [4] - Passenger vehicle exports led the expansion, with overseas shipments up by 19.5% YoY to 552,000 units [4] - From January through September, total shipments amounted to 4.6 million units, up by 12.6% compared to the same period in the previous year [4] Policy Changes - Trade-in subsidies in China are being tightened, with a lottery system implemented in key regions like Shanghai, effectively making it a de facto national policy for Q4 2025 [5] - As of October 22, 2025, applications for subsidies under the national car trade-in program exceeded 10 million, prompting policy adjustments to control fiscal expenditure [5]

Core Insights - India's Light Vehicle (LV) wholesale figures rose by 9% month-on-month (MoM) in July, reaching 398k units, with a modest year-on-year (YoY) increase of 2% [1] Wholesale and Retail Sales - The total LV sales comprised 339k Passenger Vehicles (PVs) and 59k Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), with PV volumes increasing by 8% MoM and 1% YoY, while LCV sales surged by 13% MoM and 8% YoY [2] - Retail sales of PVs and LCVs also saw a 9% MoM increase to 374k units in July, up from 342k units in June and 347k units in May, with PV retail sales growing by 10% MoM [4] - LCV retail sales increased by 3% MoM, contributing to a total of 2.9 million LV sales in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting a 1% YoY increase [5] Market Dynamics - Demand in rural areas significantly bolstered sales despite lackluster urban market performance, aiding recovery from the MoM decline in June [3] - PV inventory levels remained stable at 55 days at the end of July, indicating balanced supply and demand [4] Tax Policy Impact - The government's decision to reduce the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 28% to 18% on vehicles shorter than four meters is expected to stimulate sales of Mini Cars, Sub-Compact Cars, and Sub-Compact SUVs [6] - Larger vehicles will now be taxed at a flat rate of 40%, down from a previous higher rate of about 50% [6] - The tax reductions will take effect on September 22, coinciding with the peak festival period, traditionally a favorable time for vehicle purchases [7] Future Projections - The forecast for India's LV wholesales remains unchanged, with a conservative 1% YoY increase anticipated to 5 million units this year, including a 1% YoY rise in PV sales and a 3% YoY expansion in LCV sales [7] - There is potential for upward revision of this projection in the next report, reflecting the expected sales boost from the upcoming GST rate reduction [8]