Market Performance - China's light vehicle (LV) market showed resilience in September 2025, with total sales reaching approximately 2.5 million units, reflecting an 11% year-over-year (YoY) increase [1] - The passenger vehicle (PV) segment contributed significantly, growing by 10% YoY to 2.3 million units [1] - Light commercial vehicle (LCV) sales surged by 23% YoY, amounting to 216,000 units [2] Year-to-Date Trends - On a year-to-date (YTD) basis, the LV market maintained a 12% expansion in volumes from January to September compared to the same period in 2024 [2] - The overall Light Truck market posted a 2.5% YoY increase, driven by the rapid electrification of the Commercial Vehicle sector [2] Production Insights - China's LV production reached 3.2 million units in September, marking a solid YoY increase of 15.1% [3] - Passenger vehicles accounted for 90% of total output, rising by 14.7% YoY to 2.9 million units [3] - Domestic Chinese OEMs produced 2.3 million units, reflecting a notable 17.7% YoY uptick [3] Export Performance - In September, China's LV exports reached 611,000 units, representing a strong YoY increase of 18.2% and a month-over-month (MoM) rise of 7.1% [4] - Passenger vehicle exports led the expansion, with overseas shipments up by 19.5% YoY to 552,000 units [4] - From January through September, total shipments amounted to 4.6 million units, up by 12.6% compared to the same period in the previous year [4] Policy Changes - Trade-in subsidies in China are being tightened, with a lottery system implemented in key regions like Shanghai, effectively making it a de facto national policy for Q4 2025 [5] - As of October 22, 2025, applications for subsidies under the national car trade-in program exceeded 10 million, prompting policy adjustments to control fiscal expenditure [5]

Core Insights - India's Light Vehicle (LV) wholesale figures rose by 9% month-on-month (MoM) in July, reaching 398k units, with a modest year-on-year (YoY) increase of 2% [1] Wholesale and Retail Sales - The total LV sales comprised 339k Passenger Vehicles (PVs) and 59k Light Commercial Vehicles (LCVs), with PV volumes increasing by 8% MoM and 1% YoY, while LCV sales surged by 13% MoM and 8% YoY [2] - Retail sales of PVs and LCVs also saw a 9% MoM increase to 374k units in July, up from 342k units in June and 347k units in May, with PV retail sales growing by 10% MoM [4] - LCV retail sales increased by 3% MoM, contributing to a total of 2.9 million LV sales in the first seven months of 2025, reflecting a 1% YoY increase [5] Market Dynamics - Demand in rural areas significantly bolstered sales despite lackluster urban market performance, aiding recovery from the MoM decline in June [3] - PV inventory levels remained stable at 55 days at the end of July, indicating balanced supply and demand [4] Tax Policy Impact - The government's decision to reduce the Goods and Services Tax (GST) from 28% to 18% on vehicles shorter than four meters is expected to stimulate sales of Mini Cars, Sub-Compact Cars, and Sub-Compact SUVs [6] - Larger vehicles will now be taxed at a flat rate of 40%, down from a previous higher rate of about 50% [6] - The tax reductions will take effect on September 22, coinciding with the peak festival period, traditionally a favorable time for vehicle purchases [7] Future Projections - The forecast for India's LV wholesales remains unchanged, with a conservative 1% YoY increase anticipated to 5 million units this year, including a 1% YoY rise in PV sales and a 3% YoY expansion in LCV sales [7] - There is potential for upward revision of this projection in the next report, reflecting the expected sales boost from the upcoming GST rate reduction [8]