Summary of Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd - **Industry**: China Industrials - **Stock Rating**: Overweight - **Price Target**: Rmb105.00 - **Current Price (as of Oct 27, 2025)**: Rmb93.96 - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb125,984 million - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December 2024 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Revenue Growth**: Revenue increased by 25% YoY, driven by strong demand for excavator and non-excavator parts [8][9] - **Net Profit Growth**: Net profit rose by 31% YoY, attributed to reduced R&D costs and gains from financial assets despite higher selling costs and foreign exchange losses [8] - **Gross Profit Margin (GPM)**: Improved by 1 percentage point YoY due to a favorable product mix [8] - **Overseas Revenue Contribution**: Approximately 20% of total revenue, with Europe and North America contributing 7-8% and 5-6% respectively [8] Operational Updates - **Linear Actuator Revenue Guidance**: Revenue for F25 is guided down to Rmb100 million+, with expectations of Rmb200-300 million in F26 due to channel expansion [3] - **Losses in Linear Actuators and Mexico**: Reported a net loss of Rmb74 million for linear actuators and Rmb10 million for operations in Mexico in the first nine months of 2025 [3] - **New Plant Developments**: The Indonesian plant is ready for ramp-up with a design output of Rmb200 million, targeting local sales for small/midsized excavators [3][4] - **Brazilian Plant**: Currently in the site selection phase [4] Market Dynamics - **Global Demand Recovery**: The company is experiencing a recovery in global demand, particularly in Europe (marine, electric, and construction machinery), North America, and Southeast Asia [8] - **Future Growth Potential**: Long-term growth potential is high for humanoid robot parts, although no revenue target is set for F26 due to unfinalized specifications [8] Valuation and Risks - **Valuation Methodology**: Price target derived from applying a 35x P/E for core business and a 6x P/S on humanoid robot parts revenue, which is higher than the peer average due to expected stronger margins [9] - **Upside Risks**: Stronger-than-expected demand for excavators and pumps & valves, notable penetration into foreign brands' supply chains, and faster humanoid robot market share gain [11] - **Downside Risks**: Potential decline in excavator demand in China, failure to expand in non-excavator parts, and slower humanoid robot penetration [11] Conclusion - Jiangsu Hengli Hydraulic Co.Ltd is positioned for solid growth with a strong recovery in global demand and strategic expansions in production capabilities. The company is optimistic about future revenue growth, particularly in the humanoid robotics sector, while also managing risks associated with market fluctuations and operational challenges.